Main Bet: Patrick Reed each-way @ 51.050/1
Course revamps can always cause a little unease and we had one at Muirfield Village ahead of last year's Memorial.
Tournament host Jack Nicklaus felt it was time for an upgrade, the Golden Bear having particular beef with how the greens looked on TV due to the Poa Annua trying to override the Bentgrass.
Prior to 2021, punters felt they had a strong handle on Muirfield Village. It was a Nicklaus design and therefore, as with all his layouts, it was a second-shot course and there was room off the tee.
Strokes Gained: Approach had always been the go-to stat so was there a change 12 months ago?
The answer was a very firm 'no'. The SG: Approach ranking of the first five finishers was 5th, 4th, 8th, 9th and 7th.
Of course, that was the event where Jon Rahm powered into a six-shot lead after 54 holes but had to pull out due to a positive Covid test.
He'd gained over 5 strokes on approach in his third-round 64 and was a mile clear on the SG: Approach stats before officials told him there would be no final lap.
It's likely, with the course still bedding in, that SG: Approach is vital although you can't just neglect other parts of the game.
Patrick Cantlay, who cashed in on Rahm's WD to take victory, ranked 1st for the week on the All-Around stat while runner-up Collin Morikawa was 2nd in that category.
My headline pick is a player who you won't find high up the charts in the season-long lists of either category. But his recent form does shine a light.
Patrick Reed ranked 9th for Approach (5.175) at the PGA Championship where he ended tied 34th. And he was 15th for SGA (3.509) at last week's Charles Schwab Challenge where he posted tied seventh - his highest finish of 2022.
Reed also produced his best All-Around numbers of 2022 at Colonial and this sets him up nicely for a crack at a tournament he's a big fan of.
The 2018 Masters champion has made all six Memorial cuts and his last two visits show solo fifth last year and tied 10th in 2020.
"It's always a golf course I feel comfortable with and I feel like the lines off the tees for me haven't really changed very much," he said ahead of last year's edition.
But perhaps of more interest were his comments last week when he said: " I feel like my ball-striking is where it's supposed to be.
"I went through a change there earlier this year, and anytime you're making a change or something like that, you get too golf swing on the golf course.
"Now I feel like I've settled into kind of how I feel, how the swing is supposed to be, and now when I get out on the golf course I'm able to see golf shots rather than trying to see golf swings.
"I feel like now we're back to where we're supposed to be, back to the kind of golf I normally play, now just need the numbers to keep on producing."
Reed uttered those words at halfway and the numbers did keep producing; he gained 1.918 strokes on approach in his final round.
Memorial has good correlating form with Torrey Pines and Kapalua and Reed has won on both of those courses.
He's streets ahead of many of this week's rivals when it comes to winning big events and I'm more than happy to believe the return to form is genuine and snap up the 50/1.
Next Best: Aaron Wise each-way @ 51.050/1
I put up Aaron Wise at the Byron Nelson a couple of weeks ago due to some excellent iron play.
He'd gained 7.745 strokes on Approach (rank: 3rd) at the Mexico Open on his most recent start and was 6th in that category at The Players Championship.
I also mentioned that the American felt much better since switching to the broomstick putter before last season's playoffs.
As it transpired, Wise didn't have a good week on the greens at the Byron Nelson but he certainly did ast the PGA Championship two weeks ago, ranking 8th in SG: Putting and gaining 4.886 strokes on the field.
His SG: Approach numbers were solid at both the Byron Nelson and the US PGA and his tied 23rd at Southern Hills represented more evidence of his strong recent play.
Wise is 26th this season for SG: Approach and 25th SG: Tee To Green so if that putter comes along for the ride again he could be in business.
As for this week's course, Wise didn't take to it immediately but an opening 67 when Muirfield Village staged the 2020 Workday Charity Open was promising and last year he made page one of the leaderboard and finished tied ninth.
Looking at his numbers on the revamped Muirfield Village, Wise was 18th for SG: Approach, 22nd for SG: Putting and 10th for All-Around. That ticks all the boxes and he looks capable of getting right in the mix this week.
Other 50/1 shots I looked at were Billy Horschel, Adam Scott, Keegan Bradley and Seamus Power.
Bradley is 30th for SG: Approach while Power is 6th in the All-Around stats and posted tied ninth at Southern Hills last time.
None lure me in as much as Wise so the big-hitting 25-year-old gets the nod.
Final Bet: Will Zalatoris each-way @ 29.028/1
I've been a bit back and forth on the final pick.
Sungjae Im posted a nice top 15 on his return to action at Colonial but course form of MC-MC-63-57 and no rounds in the 60s niggles me. The 33s is tempting though.
Davis Riley continues to play elite golf and has great Approach numbers but can he win this event on debut?
Cameron Smith also has dreadful course form which is strange but ultimately a fact and perhaps Matt Fitzpatrick is just a tad short at 25s.
Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy? Very possibly although 10/1 (both) isn't really in the remit of this each-way preview although I did consider going win only on the former.
Instead, I'm drawn back to Will Zalatoris.
In an event where the cream rises to the top - Cantlay (twice), Rahm and DeChambeau - the last four winners - this is just the sort of event in which Zalatoris excels.
A playoff loser at Southern Hills in the US PGA, that was his fifth top eight in the last seven majors, two of those second places.
It was fairly predictable that both he and winner Justin Thomas suffered a reaction and missed the cut last week so that doesn't concern me at all.
Zalatoris ranks 1st Tee To Green, 3rd for Approach and 10th Off The Tee this season so has one of the best long games in the business.
The negatives would be the lack of a win yet and no course form although he did play this three years ago (MC) so at least had a look before the revamp.
As for no wins, he's certainly delivering on the each-way front after six top six finishes in 11 starts in 2022.
And, without doubt, it is just a matter of time before he gets his nose in front.
The 28/1 is the same as it was for the US PGA and this time he has no Thomas or Scottie Scheffler to contend with.
There's a lot of talk about his putting stroke but he putts well on quick greens and in big events - 6th for SG: Putting at Augusta and 10th SGP at Southern Hills - so don't get fooled.
Hopefully this is the week when all his fine play this year gets its reward.