Weather forecast for Thursday: It's a rather cool beginning for the very early starters with temps only just above 50 degrees but it warms up around 9am. In the afternoon it's a much more pleasant 70 degrees. Winds are modest at around 5-10mph.
Pick Pepperell
Eddie Pepperell heads out at 08.30 from the 10th so may have a couple of holes to play before it warms up a little.
But from there he should be able to flourish and continue the fine form he's shown over the last four starts: 11-2-20-8.
He's opened with a round in the 60s in all four, sitting fourth after 18 holes in the Cazoo Open earlier this month and 10th following the first lap of the Cazoo Classic.
At this week's course, he was fourth in the inaugural event in 2014 and has made his last three cuts, posting tied 28th in 2017 and firing middle rounds of 67 last year when tied 37th.
His recent Strokes Gained: Approach numbers are brilliant and the putter has heated up too: he's been in the top 25 for Putting Average in the four events he played in the second half of July and August.
Take the back-to-form Pepperell at 40/1.
Southgate to shine
The good record of Englishmen here and the notion that Himmerland can play like a links means I'm drawn to Matthew Southgate at 100/1.
The veteran played some good golf in Switzerland last week to finish in the top 25 and he started his week up in the Swiss Alps with a 65 that put him seventh on the Thursday leaderboard.
He was also seventh after the opening lap of the Cazoo Classic three starts earlier so he's been getting out of the blocks quickly.
As for this event, it gets even better. Southgate had a piece of the first-round lead in 2019 when going on to finish in a tie for ninth and he again shot in the 60s on day one last year.
Like Pepperell, he's away at 08.30 (this time from the 1st) but the 100/1 for FRL looks good.
Look to Lagergren
I want an afternoon starter and the one who stands out at the prices is Joakim Lagergren.
The Swede has shot some really low numbers on this track and a Thursday 62 gave him the first-round lead in 2016.
In 2019 he opened with a 67 to sit sixth after 18 holes while he threw in a Friday 63 last year to jump from 103rd to ninth.
The three-figure price is due to some very mixed form but, selecting the best of it, he was the first-round leader at June's European Open where he finished fifth and despite missing the cut at Crans last week he posted a 65 on day two.
Lagergren tees it up at 13.40 from the 10th tee.