Find Me a 100 Winner: Ruthless Reed worth risking at Riviera

With the top-11 players on the Official World Rankings in attendance, the field at the Genesis Invitational is extremely strong but that's nothing new.

Riviera has always attracted a stellar line-up but that hasn't stopped outsiders from having a decent enough record and we've witnessed some outrageous results over the last decade or so with the likes of Aaron Baddeley, Bill Haas, John Merrick, James Hahn, JB Holmes and Max Homa, last year, all being matched at triple-figure odds before the off.

Incredibly, the last three mentioned all have something in common too. All three have also won the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow and that's something I've considered carefully this week.

Is Abraham the Ancer?

Abraham Ancer hasn't won the Wells Fargo Championship, but he did finish runner-up to Rory McIlroy there last May before getting off the mark at the prestigious WGC - ST Jude Invitational at TPC Southwind in August and that's a pointer of sorts too.

The Mexican got the better of Sam Burns and Hideki Matsuyama in extra time and both have strong form at this week's venue, Riviera. Burns led last year's edition by five strokes at halfway and by two though 54 holes before fading to finish third and Matsuyama has finished inside the top-11 on four of the seven occasions he's played here.

Ancer's 2022 form figures reading 35-MC-40-8-43, don't look spectacular but he does appear to be creeping into form and he was inside the top-eight at halfway last week before a sloppy finish on Sunday saw him plummet down the leaderboard at TPC Scottsdale.

Back 2 u Abraham Ancer @ 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Ruthless Reed worth risking at Riviera

I highlighted three courses that correlate really well with Riviera in the preview - Augusta, Quail Hollow and PGA National - and Patrick Reed has form at all three.

As highlighted in the preview, as many as 12 different US Masters winners have won 22 of the 58 renewals of the Genesis Invitational staged at Riviera so that's a plus for Reed, as is his form at Quail Hollow...

Reed was runner-up to Justin Thomas at the 2017 US PGA Championship at Quail Hollow and his form figures in the Wells Fargo since read 8-28-6. And the 28th should have been better. He was sitting fourth at halfway.

And finally, he finished seventh in the Honda Classic in 2015 after a disappointing final round, having sat inside the top-three all week.

Reed's a ruthless closer, as he showed at the Farmers Insurance Open last year, and he's a prolific winner too. He's won nine PGA Tour titles over the last nine years with 2017 the only year in which he drew a blank.

Although prolific, Reed doesn't always telegraph when the next success is due so his ordinary current form is of no huge concern and given he plays so well at correlating venues, I'm also prepared to overlook his, as yet, ordinary course form figures that read MC-59-51.

Back 2u Patrick Reed @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Daring Dahmen ticks the boxes

Joel Dahmen finished a disappointing 62nd at TPC Scottsdale but that didn't stop him and Harry Higgs becoming the centre of attention on the 16th hole on Sunday when the pair dared to strip off to entertain the throng at the raucous par three.

Dahmen doesn't take himself too seriously but he's not just one of the Tour's jokers, he's also a very fine golfer and after last year's Corales Puntacana R&C Championship, he's a PGA Tour winner.

He contended two weeks ago at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where he eventually finished sixth, and although he's missed three of four cuts here, he finished fifth in 2020 and he has Quail Hollow figures reading 16-2-18.

Back 1 u Joel Dahmen @ 400.0399/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

And finally, he's not playing well at present, but I've thrown a few pounds on the 2011 US Masters winner, Charles Schwartzel, at 1000.0999/1.

The South African grew up playing on the grass type that blankets Riviera - kikuyu - and I backed him here several times at far, far shorter when he was in his pomp.

He was third and fifth here on his first two visits in 2013 and 2015 and he may just spark into life given he finished inside the top-three in three PGA Tour events last summer.

Back ½ u Charles Schwartzel @ 1000.0999/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

I'll be back on Friday with the In-Play Blog.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter