After a near miss and a small return with Victor Perez at the Saudi International last week, Steve's back with another long odds punt at Pebble on three tasty outsiders...
"As a former winner of the Honda Classic at PGA National, Thompson clearly has the skillset for an exposed layout and he advertised his liking for Pebble two years ago when he finished tenth."
We only have one tournament to ponder this week - the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am - but given three of the last five winners have gone off at huge prices and that two of them were matched at 1000.0 before the off, a big-priced winner is perfectly plausible.
As highlighted in the preview, none of the market leaders made much appeal so it's been a case of limiting the number of picks at 120.0119/1 and bigger. I've mentioned four that I've chanced for small stakes in the preview and I've got three more here, starting with my strongest fancy, Michael Thompson.
Blustery test perfect for Thompson
Thompson's form trailed off a bit after he'd won the 3M Open in July but he ended the year with a 15th place in the Houston Open and his missed cut last week in Phoenix was something of a surprise after a decent start to the year.
Top-25 finishes in the two events in Hawaii, the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the Sony Open, were followed by a fifth placed finish at The American Express, which just like this event this year, is a Pro-Am with no amateurs present, played over two courses instead of the usual three.
Thompson has been putting really nicely for a long time and he ranked inside the top-ten for Greens In Regulation at The American Express so if we can ignore last week's missed cut and we probably can to large extent given that was his third weekend off there in five visits, then he comes here with a nice chance.
As a former winner of the Honda Classic at PGA National, Thompson clearly has the skillset for an exposed layout and he advertised his liking for Pebble two years ago when he finished tenth. The wind is forecasted to get up on Sunday but that won't bother Thompson one iota and it won't hamper the former Open Champion, Stewart Cink either...
Open champ worth chancing
As highlighted in the preview, Open champions have a more than fair record in this event so Stewart Cink's event form to date is a bit disappointing. He was 25th way back in 1998 and 21st in 2016 but that's as good as it's got and that's surprising given how well his game suits the venues and given he was eighth at Pebble Beach in the 2000 US Open behind Tiger Woods.
In truth, he hasn't been a frequent participant and I do wonder if he's just grown a bit bored of Pro-Ams. If that is the case, then I can see why he's turning up this year.
Since winning the Safeway Open in September, Cink's finished 12th at the Sanderson Farms Championship and fourth in the Bermuda Championship and he was in-the-mix at the Sony Open last month before a poor final round saw slip to 19th that was a better performance than the result suggests.
Bermuda winner could strike again
Brian Gay's form has dropped off a cliff since he won the Bermuda Championship but I'm happy to chance that he might bounce back at a venue where his lack of length off the tee is irrelevant.
Gay doesn't have a spectacular Pebble portfolio and he was only 38th last year but he was eighth in 2018 and seventh two years go and he's another that won't care a jot how blowy it gets.
Odds of 400.0399/1 are insulting for a five time PGA Tour winner who's tasted success as recently as November.
I'll be back on Friday with the In-Play Blog.
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter
STEVE'S 2021 FIND ME A 100 WINNER P/L
Staked: 26 units
Returned: 12.5 units
P/L: -13.5 units