Find Me a 100 Winner: Green up with Brice and Brown

Golfer Steven Brown
Steven brown in action at Wentworth

With the US election now less than a week away Paul Krishnamurty is still tied up, so Steve Rawlings steps in again to search for a monster-priced winner in Cyprus and Bermuda...

"None of the five have ever won on the PGA Tour and all five are trading at a shorter price than the Dominican winner, Hudson Swafford. Given the first fact, the second is just bonkers."

Last week's 150.0149/1 pick, Sebastian Munoz, led the ZOZO Championship after round one and he was just two off the lead with a round to go. Unfortunately, 16.015/1 was as low as he traded and the finish was dominated by three fancied runners. I still think, however, that the US is where we should concentrate most of our focus.

After seven events of the new PGA Tour season, we've already had four triple-priced winners and this week's Bermuda Championship looks ripe for a fifth. Having been matched at as high as 190.0189/1, last year's inaugural winner, Brendon Todd, went off at around 150.0149/1, and with windy weather forecast for the last three days, another wily old vet getting it done is perfectly plausible.

Dominican winners value in Bermuda

Back Hudson Swafford 2u @ 180.0179/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1

As highlighted in the preview, the Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship, staged for the fifth time in the Dominican Republic just a month ago, looks like a tournament that should correlate very nicely with the Bermuda Championship.

Both are held on short, coastal, wind-affected tracks, where an ability to handle breezy conditions is of far more importance than bombing it off the tee, and given its proximity to this event, both geographically and timewise, it looks a great tournament to focus on.

I looked closely at a number of players that performed well there, focusing in-particular on the top-10, and six of them line-up again here.

This week's favourite, Will Zalatoris, who was tied for eighth in the Dominican, the runner-up, Tyler McCumber, Anirban Lahiri, who finished tied for sixth, and both Luke List and Cameron Percy, who finished alongside Zalatoris, are all in Bermuda this week. They all have two quite surprising things in common.

None of the five have ever won on the PGA Tour and all five are trading at a shorter price than the Dominican winner, Hudson Swafford. Given the first fact, the second is just bonkers.

Hudson Swafford 1280.jpg

Admittedly, the 33-year-old Floridian, who was a 300.0299/1 chance in the Dominican, has missed two cuts since he won there. Having won what's now called the Desert Classic three years ago, though, Swafford is now in search of his third PGA Tour title and if he starts OK on Thursday, he'll at least know what to do in the heat of battle. Should he really be a bigger price than 46-year-old PGA Tour maiden Cameron Percy, whose eighth in the Dominican was his first top-10 in a year? Surely not.

Back Brice Garnett 2u @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1

It's now more than two years since 37-year-old Missourian, Brice Garnett, romped to a four-stroke victory at the Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship and he hasn't done an awful lot to write home about since. A fifth at the Mayakoba Golf Classic (an event Todd won after winning the Bermuda Championship) and a sixth at the Wyndham Championship are the highlights but there were signs last time out that he may be coming in to form when he trailed by just three strokes at the halfway stage of the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open.

Garnett fell down the leaderboard over the weekend but it was an encouraging effort and this is a much more suitable test. In addition to form at the Mayakoba and in the Dominican, he also has a decent bank of form at Harbour Town (another track that correlates nicely). He'll relish the conditions as well as the course. The wind was ferocious in round four when he won in the Dominican so this week's forecast won't bother him one iota.

Green up with Brown

Back Steven Brown 2u @ 180.0179/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1

For my third and final pick I'll visit the European Tour, which this week stages the first ever event in Cyprus - the Cyprus Open.

Obviously, with it being a brand-new event at a brand-new venue, it's hard to know exactly what to expect but three separate strands of thought lead me to huge outsider, Steven Brown.

As highlighted in the preview, this looks highly likely to be a low scoring event and one course I thought may correlate nicely is Dom Pedro Victoria, home of the Portugal Masters, an event Brown won last year in 17-under-par. A year earlier, he was beaten in a playoff at the Made In Denmark when the four playoff protagonists reached a total of 19-under, and looking at his form this year is encouraging too.

He finished fifth in the English Championship in August - an event won by another Portugal Masters winner, Andy Sullivan, in a whopping 27-under-par - and he was also 10th in the Andalucía Masters at Valderrama. And that's another result that provides a bit of a link.

Valderrama was designed by Robert Trent Jones Sr and the designer of this week's course in Cyprus, Cabell Robinson, began his career working alongside Jones. It's a tenuous link maybe but it's still a link.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter


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