LIV Golf Invitational Jeddah Tips: Casey can ride the wave

  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 4:00 min read
Paul Casey ended last week with a pair of 65s.

"He’s a two-time winner of the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, he landed the Volvo Champions event in Bahrain, and only last year he won the Dubai Desert Classic."

Paul Casey 1pt each way @ 21.020/1

  • Matt Cooper has tipped four of the six LIV winners.
  • He has another two selections with the Betfair Sportsbook paying five places
  • Middle East specialist Paul Casey can contend
  • Dustin Johnson's course form cannot be ignored

The first stage of LIV Golf's inaugural season will be completed this week with the seventh get-together being the final individual tournament.

Alas, by virtue of him being involved from the very beginning and performing with great consistency, Dustin Johnson's crowning as the individual champion of the year has been a little premature.

This week's battle, therefore, will be one, rather than two, dimensional. DJ won't care - he's already banked another $18 million in bonus money.

In an entertaining change this week the LIV website has not published a scorecard for host course Royal Greens Golf & Country Club. It might be that this column has prompted that change because we've had to check whether the information is correct so often (and it so often hasn't been) that they might have figured it's better just not bothering. Or that they're just not very good at details.

The column's good run ended last week, failing to land a return for the first time in the first half dozen events.

However, while it would have been utterly extraordinary had we tipped the winner (Spain's Eugenio Lopez-Chapurra was the long shot's long shot) we did suspect that the favourites would be vulnerable and so it proved with only Patrick Reed putting any sort of strong display from those at the head of the market.

The theory was that Thailand, for all the bells and whistles paid for by the Saudi backers, would be a subtle but sufficient disruptor for many.

This week should be different. In the Middle East you have to actively look for proof of a world beyond five (six and seven) star luxury; it doesn't reveal itself outside the window on the airport shuttle run.

Main Bet: Paul Casey 1pt each-way @ 20/1

Paul Casey has produced plenty of good golf on the Arabian peninsula.

He's a two-time winner of the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, he landed the Volvo Champions event in Bahrain, and only last year he won the Dubai Desert Classic.

Is he up to making it win number five in the region?

His move to LIV came after a first half of the year that was severely disrupted by injury.

He finished sixth on debut at Bedminster and carded a 64 in Boston, but last week he closed with two laps of 65 for a share of third.

The final lap was the equal low score of the day and in going back-to-back with good rounds for the first time in ages it suggests he's finding genuine form.

Now he heads back to Royal Greens where he was 12th last year and 24th in February, when carding a 63 in the third round.

One other factor sways me which is that Casey has a strong record playing courses designed by European Golf Design (responsible for Royal Greens). He's won at Royal in Bahrain, Carton House in Ireland (where he has also been a runner-up) and at Green Eagle in Germany (an EGD renovation).

It would also be entirely typical of the modern world if a fellow who once didn't play in Saudi Arabia because of his support of UNICEF landed an enormous bank account boost there.

Next Best: Dustin Johnson 2pt win @ 5/1

With yet more riches already banked it has to be a concern that Dustin Johnson lacks for absolute drive but the flip side is that he can play without the need to win that so often impedes a golfer's performance.

And with just the one win this season I suspect enough hunger remains, all the more so given he's playing a track he is quite evidently completely at home on.

In his last five LIV starts he has been the mid-tournament leader twice, been second once and won once.

At Royal Greens he's won twice, been runner-up and his "failure" was when eighth.

He says of the layout: "You have to drive it well. I mean, the greens have got a lot of slope on them so you need to be able to control your ball coming into it. But if you drive it well, you can definitely make a lot of birdies just because you can get some short clubs in your hand."

It's a par-70 so there are only two par-5s, but with four par-4s between 350 and 381 yards his length is in play and another four are between 427 and 439 yards.

He's a long, strong driver whose wedge game has grown into another great strength - those yardages suit him.

* Having difficulty working out the place returns? Fret no more - you can easily work out your returns with our new each way calculator.

Recommended bets

Paul Casey 1pt each way @ 21.020/1

Dustin Johnson 2pts win @ 6.005/1

LIV Tips Staked: 24pts Returned: 117.4pts P/L: 93.4pts

Matt Cooper

Matt Cooper is an experienced and well-travelled golf journalist.

Discover the latest articles