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80/1 Andy Sullivan can start fast again
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50/1 Callum Hill can go low here
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100/1 Hurly Long appeals from the p.m. wave
Weather forecast for Thursday: It's a sunny day in Rome with temperatures peaking in the mid-to-high 70s at around 2pm.
Winds are calm, picking up to a top speed of around 9mph in late afternoon. Overall, it seems there's no significant advantage for either wave.
Stick with Sullivan
Andy Sullivan did us a FRL favour at 80/1 in last week's Korea Championship when tied second after day one and I'm surprised to see him at the same price here.
For the third event running, the Englishman was out of the blocks fast, his 67 adding to an opening 63 in the ISPS Handa Championship in Japan and a 67 in the South African Tour's Jonsson Workwear Open.
In the latter two he didn't cash in on his fast start but in Korea last week Sullivan ended his week tied for 10th.
Perhaps the price is due to his modest course record at Marco Simone - the venue for this year's Ryder Cup - which shows a missed cut in 2021 and a tied 41st in 2022.
However, those editions were held in September so conditions could be different and he does have some strong form in Italy: a fifth in this event in 2018 and a third in the Sicilian Open that same season.
He drove it well in Korea and the putter is working nicely so hopefully Sullivan can thrive on day one again. He tees off at 09.00 from the 10th tee.
Hill fits the bill
Calum Hill missed the cut in Korea but a week earlier he'd produced some excellent golf to finish third at the ISPS Handa Championship in Japan.
With that form still fresh, he's very much one to look at here.
The Scot finished tied 34th on his only start at Marco Simone in 2021 but his round scores make interesting reading.
It didn't work out for him on days one and three when he returned 75s but his week was lifted by a Friday 65 and Sunday 66.
Hill can clearly score here and if he can get the low one in early this time, a payout beckons.
He's had some previous fast starts in May and two of his latest three opening rounds are a 66 and a 67.
Hill, who starts at 08.20, is 50/1.
Hurly can strike early
From the afternoon wave, I'll have a punt on Hurly Long at a three-figure price.
The German has underperformed in 2023 to be honest but he's shown some flashes and three finishes around the 30-mark in his last four starts offers some encouragement.
In the most recent, he set out with a 65 in the Korn Ferry's Veritex Bank Championship to sit seventh after the first lap.
And three starts earlier in Kenya he was also in the top 10 at close of play on Thursday.
Long also has some good memories of his last trip to Italy. That was back in 2020 when he won the Italian Challenge Open on the second tier and followed it with tied 16th in the Italian Open three weeks later.