Weather forecast for Thursday: It's a rather chilly start with temps in the 50s before they reach the mid-60s by 11am and peak in the 70s towards the end of the golfing day. Winds are fairly modest but drop in the afternoon. Overall, the afternoon starters look to have slightly better conditions but not massively so. I'll pick two p.m. and one a.m.
Henley to thrive from afternoon start
Russell Henley is in the fifth last group from the 1st tee and hopefully he can make hay from his 1.38pm start.
Henley ranks 3rd for Round 1 Scoring on the PGA Tour this season, one of just four players to average under 68.
Strokes Gained: Tee To Green looks a key stat this week given how the last two winners at TPC Potomac at Avenel - Kyle Stanley (2017) and Francesco Molinari (2018) - ranked 1st in that category.
Henley is 6th for SG: Tee To Green in the current stats while on a course where accuracy counts more than usual, his 26th position for Driving Accuracy also bodes well.
Looking back to last year's US Open, Henley has had a piece of the first-round lead three times in 20 starts.
And when he played here in 2017, a 67 put him eighth after the opening lap.
Back him at 50/1 to set the pace on day one.
Count on Cameron
Cameron Young has caught the eye plenty this season and the rookie has already racked up two second places and a third.
One of the keys to his fine play has been quick starts and last time out he opened with a 63 to take the first-round lead at the RBC Heritage.
Earlier in the campaign a 66 put him second after day one at Riviera while his 64 in the opening round of the American Express was good enough for third place.
He's also been in the top 10 after 18 holes in three other events: the Sanderson Farms (67), the Farmers Insurance Open (67) and the Honda Classic (68).
A 62 in round two at the Genesis Invitational shows just how he can shoot the lights out so let's back him at 50s to get hot early.
He tees off at 1.49pm from the 1st.
Make it McCarthy
Denny McCarthy was born in Maryland, still has plenty of local connections and has been at the property since Sunday.
That knowledge adds to a recent history of fast starts.
A 67 in round one of the Texas Open put him third while that same score left McCarthy 10th after the opening lap at Hilton Head.
He's straight off the tee (42nd Driving Accuracy), a fine putter (20th SG: Putting), ranks 26th in Scoring Average and 37th for Round 1 scoring this season.
McCarthy tees off at 8.18am and there's enough in all the above to back him at 80/1.