The final PGA Tour event of the year is the Mayakoba Golf Classic in Mexico where the average age of the winners is 35. Steve Rawlings has picked out three longshot vets to side with...
"Since the 2020/21 PGA Tour season began in September, if we disregard the two majors, won by Bryson DeChambeau and Dustin Johnson, there have been nine tournaments to date and six of them have been won by someone that traded at a triple-figure price before the off."
After a week with just one event to concentrate on, we're spoilt for choice this week with three, although time has beaten me with regards to the Golf in Dubai Championship (previewed here) which started on Wednesday morning.
The South African Open (previewed here) begins tomorrow and so too does the Mayakoba Golf Classic on the PGA Tour and that's where I'm concentrating all my efforts.
With the majority of the star names in Dubai, the South African Open has a poor field and other than Richard McEvoy, who's price has now well and truly gone, no huge outsiders make any appeal there but there are plenty of options in Mexico where longshots have a decent record. And outsiders have been winning with regularity on the PGA Tour this season too...
Since the 2020/21 PGA Tour season began in September, if we disregard the two majors, won by Bryson DeChambeau and Dustin Johnson, there have been nine tournaments to date and six of them have been won by someone that traded at a triple-figure price before the off. I'll kick off with my biggest priced fancy - Nate Lashley.
Lock in the lolly with Lashley
Nate Lashley is a player I've backed a few times since I witnessed his remarkable six-stroke mauling of the field at last year's Rocket Mortgage Classic, where he amassed a 25-under-par total.
That's Lashley's only PGA Tour win to date but he also won the Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship in 2017 - a year before it was upgraded from a Korn Ferry Tour event to a PGA Tour one. As highlighted in the preview, like this week's course, the CPR & CC's venue is one of only three courses used on the PGA Tour with Paspalum grass and the two events correlate nicely. Graeme McDowell, who's another big outsider worthy of close inspection, has won both tournaments.
At 37, Nashley's a late bloomer so we can possibly disregard his missed cut here three years ago when out of sorts. In addition to his win at the Corales Puntacana, he was fourth there this year and he also has form at other events that correlate well. He was eighth on the Paspalum at the Puerto Rico Open on his only visit and his form figures at the Ellie Mae Classic on the Korn Ferry Tour (also highlighted in the preview) read MC-3-10.
Howell value for yet another top-20
Charles Howell III isn't especially prolific. The 41-year-old won his third PGA Tour title at the RSM Classic in 2018, 11 years after he'd won his second and 16 years since his first success so he's not really one to go to war with but he really does love this event.
This is Chucky Three Sticks' 12th visit to El Camaleón and he's looking to finish inside the top-20 for the ninth time! I'm keeping stakes modest in the win market for obvious reasons but he's in fair form and at an industry-wide best of 5/2 to finish inside the top-20 again, he looks a great bet.
Piercy primed to contend again
Although it took him a little while to take to the place, like Howell, Scott Piercy has a great record here at El Camaleón. The 42-year-old has course form figures reading MC-60-20-MC-W-16-4-6-26 and it's worth highlighting that last year's 26th came at a time when he wasn't playing as well as he is now.
After a poor 2019-20 season, and a slow start to this one, Piercy is building momentum nicely and he's finished 19th, 14th, 32nd and 18th in his last four starts. Piercy hasn't won at any of the courses that correlate nicely with this one but he was second at the Sony Open in 2015 (four players have won this and the Sony) and he looks primed to contend again here.
Given his current form figures and that he's finished no worse than 26th in each of his last four visits here, Piercy is also worth playing in the top-20 finish market at an industry-best of 7/2 with the Sportsbook.
Back Scott Piercy 2u @ 100.099/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 8.07/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 2u Top-20 Finish @ 7/2 (Sportsbook)
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter
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