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A trio of triple-figure priced picks in Italy and Detroit
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In the last four weeks Steve has seen 130.0129/1 chance Ryan Fox matched at odds-on to win the Canadian Open, 160.0159/1 selection Christiaan Bezuidenhout finish fourth at the Memorial Tournament and 130.0129/1 shot Russell Henley finish seventh at the US Open. I'll try to keep up the pace as I sit in for him.
I've picked out three this week, one in the Italian Open on the DP World Tour, and two in the Rocket Mortgage Classic on the PGA Tour.
The Italian Open is at a completely new venue but the PGA Tour is playing at Detroit GC for a sixth time.
As discussed in both Steve's preview and my own each way column, this week's new venue for the Italian Open is something of a mystery.
It's far from unusual, of course, that the DP World Tour ventures to new tracks, but typically these courses have hosted the second tier, the third tier, an amateur championship or even a European Tour event at some point in the distant past.
If nothing else, we'd have the course designer and, in the case of the likes of Jack Nicklaus, Pete Dye and Robert Trent Jones (Sr. and Jr.), the fingerprints are distinct.
This week at the Adriatic GC Cervia we're really feeling our way in with a blind fold on, tissue stuffed up our noses and more of it wedged in our ear holes.
What we do know is that one nine is tree-lined and the other exposed with water threatening errant hits from the tee.
I'm minded to like solid types from tee and Mikko Korhonen fits that bill.
The 43-year-old has had injury woes that pulled his 2022 season up short and saw him play very little in 2023.
This year he tiptoed back on the third tier and has gone MC-49-10 through his first three starts back on the main tour.
But that latter effort was even better than it first looks because he shared the first round lead and had the solo advantage after 36 and 54 holes.
Being back in contention was a shock, but it will also provide lessons.
Back Mikko Korhonen (2Us)
Because he is on that comeback trail his price has remained inflated but if he's turned a corner this could look a big price.
Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 & 12 Us @ 2.01/1
The 28-year-old Argentine has had an odd career so far, one typified by oddball incidents rather than actual results.
He was docked two shots for taking an illegal shuttle he thought was a courtesy car midway through a round on the second tier, was forced to withdraw from an event last year for an undisclosed disciplinary matter, and thrashed his ball 349-yards on to the island green of the short par-4 13th in last month's PGA Championship.
Last time out he was T17 in the Charles Schwab Challenge when third for SG Approach and earlier this campaign he was second at Memorial Park in the Houston Open.
If he can ally that hot form with his approach shots to a fondness for Donald Ross tests (which Detroit GC is) he can thrive this week.
Back Alejandro Tosti (2Us)
It's a small sample size, and came on the Korn Ferry Tour, but the two Ross tracks he played on last year saw him finish fourth at Holston Hills and open with a 66 a week later at Raleigh for T11 before a second round 75 saw him miss the cut.
Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 & 12 Us @ 2.01/1
Two-time PGA Tour winner Patton Kizzire is stuck in the new PGA Tour trap: he's an also ran trying to break the elite stranglehold with limited opportunities.
From late April he landed four top 30s in a row, the last of them T10 in the opposite field Myrtle Beach Classic when he ranked second for SG Approach.
But he then had to wait three weeks for another start, missed the cut, and has had another long wait for this week's start.
But that form was not too bad if he can revive it and he was T25 on the course in 2021 when thrashing a final round 64.
It is a shot in the dark but I think he has a better chance than these very big odds suggest.
Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 & 12 Us @ 2.01/1
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