Last week's 200.0199/1 pick, Anirban Lahiri, hit the front during the weather-interrupted third round of the Wyndham Championship and he was matched at a low of 8.07/1 so he met the first lay back target but that was as good as it got unfortunately.
He bogeyed back-to-back holes on the back-nine in round three, one on Saturday before a second suspension in play and one first thing on Sunday morning when play resumed. He never really threatened after that and eventually finished tied for eighth.
I've got three more selections this week, starting with my sole selection at the ISPS Handa World Invitational, which I've previewed here.
Paratore the pick at Galgorm
Italy's Renato Paratore was the first player I backed this week and I was amazed to be able get him onside at as big as a whopping 180.0179/1 given how weak this week's field is in Northern Ireland.
As Matt Cooper highlights, the 25-year-old has been in abysmal form for much of the year but with two DP World Tour titles in the bag, we know he can deliver the goods if he finds his form and if last week's third place finish in Wales is anything to go by, it looks like he may just have done so.
The market is often slow to respond to a sudden upturn in fortunes and it's something to always bear in mind when betting on golf.
Form is temporary, class is permanent is an appropriate adage for a sport in which the slightest adjustment at this level can turn a top-class player from a serial cut misser to a trophy lifter and I was more than happy to get Paratore onside this week.
As Matt highlights, he has winning and placed form at other tree-lined venues and if he picks up from where he left off last week at Celtic Manor, he'll be there or thereabouts.
Both of Paratore's victories, at the Nordea and British Masters, have been chalked up since this week's favourite, Jordan Smith, won his one and only title back in 2017 and win or lose, from a value perspective, the two are like chalk and cheese.
The Italian is around 15 times the price of the Englishman and while Paratore can't be described as anywhere near as consistent, when he's had a sniff of a win, he's taken his chances. The same cannot be said of this week's favourite, Smith.
Back 2u Renato Paratore @ 150.0149/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Kevin can kick on again
Last week's Wyndham Championship defence was about as disappointing as it gets for Kevin Kisner.
Having never been in contention, he withdrew from the tournament with one hole to play of round two when rain stopped play. He was six-over-par at the time and heading for a weekend off anyway.
That was Kisner's sixth weekend off in eight starts but that doesn't unduly put me off. He provided profits when matched at 6.05/1 when a pick for the column at 200.0199/1 at the Travelers Championship , where he finished sixth having missed his last four cuts, and he played superbly in spells at the Open Championship where he finished 21st after shooting 65 on Saturday.
Kisner has form at all the right correlating courses (see preview) and although his form figures at TPC Southwind aren't spectacular, reading 38-13-50-27-25-63, he sat second and third after the opening rounds back in 2011 and 2014.
1 U Kevin Kisner @ 350.0349/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Kuchar claims on corelating course form
As highlighted in the preview, veterans have prospered at TPC Southwind and certain tracks appear to correlate very nicely.
At 42, Matt Kuchar certainly fits the veteran's bill and he has form at all the right venues too, including wins at the El Camaleon Golf Club and Waialae Country Club.
Like Kisner, he doesn't have a spectacular Southwind CV but he was fifth here on debut and he currently tops the Scrambling stats on the PGA Tour, which is arguably the most important stat at TPC Southwind.
Back 1 u Matt Kuchar @ 460.0459/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter
Recommended Bets
Back 2u Renato Paratore @ 150.0149/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
1 U Kevin Kisner @ 350.0349/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 1 u Matt Kuchar @ 460.0459/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
STEVE'S 2022 FIND ME A 100 WINNER P/L
Staked: 165.5 units
Returned: 90 units
P/L: -75.5 units