Main Bet: Scott Stallings each-way @ 101.0100/1
The FedEx St. Jude Championship was upgraded from a regular PGA Tour stop to a WGC event for a couple of seasons but now finds itself somewhere between the two: the opening tournament of the three-week playoff series.
In terms of field quality, it's far closer to a WGC and just about everyone who hasn't (yet) defected to LIV is teeing it up.
That might not have been the case in the days of the four-tournament playoffs when some players skipped the opener to keep fresh.
The reassuring constant is that whatever its status, the event is always held at Sega Megadrive favourite TPC Southwind: a Bermuda grass par 70.
Tapping into that continuity certainly paid off last year when Abraham Ancer fitted the bill very nicely at around 40/1.
Ancer had good course form, was high in the Par 4 charts (always good for a par 70) and boasted strong Strokes Gained: Tee To Green numbers.
In the end Ancer ranked 4th for SG: Tee To Green and tied 3rd for Par 4 Scoring.
The top four all finished in the top seven for SG: Approach while the man who topped that category, Daniel Berger, took a share of fifth place.
Berger was also tied 1st for Par 4s alongside Sam Burns, who finished runner-up after losing the playoff.
As those same trends played out in previous years too, it would be foolish not to take them on board again.
Of course, many of the leading contenders are strong in all those categories so we need to whittle them down in another way or show a bit more imagination.
My first bet is going to be a punt on 100/1 Scott Stallings.
On current form, he's certainly worth a look. Fourth at Colonial (short par 70) in late May, his last four finishes read: 8-4-10-13.
The latest came at the Wyndham Championship where he closed 67-65 on the weekend. Stalling was positive for SG: Tee To Green in all four rounds.
Talking of which, although his overall season Tee To Green position of 64th is good rather than great, he ranks 8th in the field if narrowing the TTG study period to just the last eight weeks.
Looking at the numbers, he's ranked 12th or better for TTG in each of his last four starts, picking up a combined 29 strokes on the field.
Two of the four were played on par 70s: Sedgefield Country Club and TPC River Highlands which has to bode well.
That brings us to Par 4 Scoring and Stallings is a healthy 24th this season so that's another box ticked.
Finally, does he have any course form? You'd think so and a scroll through the history books shows him finishing runner-up in 2013.
There are four other finishes of tied 37th or better in his other seven Southwind starts and he was 10th after 54 holes on his last visit in 2018. The previous year, he surged up the leaderboard with a Saturday 65.
"I made an equipment change and went back to an old set of irons last week. You know, something that I was very comfortable with," he said at last month's John Deere.
And as for looking like he could win again after an eight-year drought: "I mean, I've told this story a million times. I feel like I definitely got a second chance at my career. All the changes and everything that I made throughout my body and life and everything.
"It's obviously a huge blessing and honour to be out here for what I feel like is a second go-around."
With his physical and mental game so strong, just maybe it's his turn again on a course that clearly suits.
Next Best: Sungjae Im each-way @ 29.028/1
Sungjae Im is one of the real form horses in the field after back-to-back runners-up finishes.
The first came at the 3M Open in July before he again had to settle for second place at last week's Wyndham Championship.
It was his misfortune to run into two inspired players in Tony Finau and Thomas The Tank Engine fan Joohyung Kim so he won't feel he did much wrong.
"I feel great heading into the playoffs," Im said on Sunday and there was no need to qualify that by pointing out an area that needs improving. Why? Everything seems in a good spot.
Im has ranked 2nd and 4th on the All-Around in his last two starts and, analysing strokes gained, he was 5th Tee To Green at the 3M Open and 7th TTG at the Wyndham.
The putter is warm too as he finished in the top 16 for SG: Putting during those two second places.
Im ranks 10th for Strokes Gained: Tee To Green this season and 9th for both SG: Off The Tee and SG: Total. That's impressive stuff.
He's also 3rd for Par 4 Scoring Average so the only doubt appears to be course form given his finishes of tied 35th and tied 46th.
But in 2020 he was in the top 10 after rounds one, two and three before falling away and a closing 73 last year again compromised his finishing position.
In theory, a Par 70 Bermuda should suit; after all, his first win came at the Honda Classic which has the same attributes.
Im loves keeping the engine running and, on current form, this looks a good chance to turn those two seconds into a first.
Final Bet: Billy Horschel each-way @ 41.040/1
At the front end of the market, it's hard to find anything standout.
Justin Thomas is a former winner while Rory McIlroy, Cameron Smith, Xander Schauffele, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Jon Rahm have all managed a top seven. All have strong chances but who do you pick?
Rahm at 20/1 raises half an eyebrow and he once shot a 62 here but most of his form for a while now hasn't been anything special.
So at double those odds I'm going to add in Playoffs specialist Billy Horschel.
Probably his biggest appeal is course form. Horschel has five top 10s in his last eight appearances at TPC Southwind and two of the other three were top 25s.
He looked set for another top 10 last year when opening 68-67-66 but had to settle for tied 17th after a closing 72.
Asked for the reason why he plays the course so well, Horschel said in 2019: "You've got to strike your golf ball really well here. If you're not putting the ball in the fairway, it's going to be tough to score.
"Historically and throughout my career, I've always been a really good driver of the golf ball. I'm a really good putter inside 10 feet, so when you do miss the green, it's vital to make some of those putts.
"You get me on bermuda grass like this here, East Lake, Greensboro, same thing down in Louisiana, get me on bermuda greens, I'd put myself up against anybody in the sense of putting on bermuda greens since being the best putter type deal.
"There's a lot of things that just play into this course really fit my game very well. You don't have to go stupid low here, you've just got to manage your game very well, and that's something I've always done throughout my career."
The FedEx Cup winner from 2014 was a brilliant four-shot winner at Memorial in June and also won the DP World Tour's prestigious BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth last September.
His other 2021 trophy came in the WGC-Match Play in Texas so he's been landing big prizes.
Horschel admitted he was a little undercooked going into last week's Wyndham Championship but tied 27th with all four rounds in the 60s was decent enough.
He's 17th for Par 4 Scoring this season and before the Wyndham, Horschel was 6th for SG: Tee To Green when tied 21st at St Andrews - his best finish in an Open.
Back him here at 40/1.