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Spain's Pablo Larrazabal looks primed
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Daniel Hillier can land a second DP World Tour win
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The test suits Callum Shinkwin's strong driving
I've long been a golf watcher who prefers the giant killers to the giants.
The column has, for example, discussed my fondness for the German Tobias Dier who landed just the four top 10s in 138 European Tour starts - but two of them were wins.
I thought of him again 12 months ago when Daniel Gavins claimed this title in quite extraordinary fashion.
The Englishman had found himself on the 72nd tee two shots clear of the field and his advantage was about to become three, whereupon he contrived to hit two balls into water before draining a 25-footer for a winning double bogey.
And his career record on the (now) DP World Tour? 119 starts, five top 10s, two of them wins.
Some would call it a Dier logbook, others would say this game is all about winning and taking your chances (in whatever remarkable, even slapstick, fashion).
For example, two years ago, Padraig Harrington told Today's Golfer: "It's better in golf to be erratic than consistent. You're better off having your wins than being consistent but never tasting victory. Winning is what you're remembered for.
"The problem you have in America is with statistics showing a player having six top 25s so far this year. That's just horrible! Why would you be telling anybody you've had six top 25s? I wouldn't play the game to have six top 25s: it's either the chance of winning ... or nothing."
And here's where the circle rounds itself nicely because who did Dier play with (and deny) in the final round of his second win in the 2002 KLM Open?
Yes, Padraig Harrington. It's a funny old game, Saint.
Main Bet: Pablo Larrazabal 1pt each-way @ 40/1
Pablo Larrazabal has enjoyed the Desert Swing so far this January, finishing 20th in the Dubai Invitational and then closing with a best-of-round-of-the-day 66 to complete an excellent fourth place in last week's Dubai Desert Classic.
It was notable that he gained over four strokes with his approach play and over five with his putting for the week.
It means he now has top 10 finishes on the Earth Course at Jumeirah, Doha, Royal Greens, Emirates and Abu Dhabi (including a win at the latter).
He's a very good desert performer and, moreover, he was third at Al Hamra in 2022 when he gained nine strokes on the greens to lead the field in the category that week.
Given all of that, and the fact that he is a four-time winner in the last two years (two in each of them), a price of 40/141.00 seems very attractive.
What's more, the first win of that recent run was preceded by finishes of sixth and third, the second was straight after a fifth, the third two starts after he was 10th and the fourth came two starts after the third win.
He might, therefore, be flagging that he's ready to make it five wins in the last 24 months and 10 in all on the DP World Tour.
Next Best: Daniel Hillier 1pt each-way @ 55/1
Among my notes ahead of last year's event are discarded scribbles about a link between Al Hamra and Galgorm Castle.
At first glance, a desert course and a parkland track in Northern Ireland don't scream much but Jordan Smith won at Al Hamra and has three top sevens at Galgorm, Jens Dantorp won at Al Hamra and nearly won at Galgorm, Ryan Fox has won at both, while Daan Huizing, Victor Perez, Lucas Nemecz and Adrian Meronk have land top finishes at the distant pair.
And where had Gavins won before here 12 months ago? Galgorm Castle!
That did make me wonder about Daniel Brown, but it is yet another Daniel, the Kiwi Hillier, who gets the vote taking this route.
He was third at Galgorm back in 2021 ahead of being an impressive rookie in 2023 when landing a trio of top fives in just four starts during the summer, including a first victory at The Belfry.
In October he started with a pair of 65s to have a two shot lead in the Qatar Masters and he was also 42nd in this tournament last year when he had been 13th with 18 holes to play.
He ranked top 20 Off the Tee that week and he ranked first (gained 4.9 strokes) just two weeks ago at Dubai Creek, as he also did in Qatar.
Good, long drivers like Al Hamra and Hillier can join their number.
Final Bet: Callum Shinkwin 1pt each-way @ 66/1
Sticking to that theme the Englishman Callum Shinkwin completes the plan for the week.
He played the two back-to-back Al Hamra events in 2022 finishing 21st and 25th when ranking third and first Off the Tee, gaining over six and seven strokes over the field in the process.
He was also in the top 10 until halfway last year until bad health struck and forced his withdrawal.
He was 11th last week in the Dubai Desert Classic and, although he did little more than make the cut the week before in the Dubai Invitational, he ranked top 10 Off the Tee both times.
He also gained over two and a half strokes on the greens last week. It ranked him 20th which is riches for him.
If he can keep that stroke for another four rounds he can contend.
Now read Steve Rawlings on the Ras Al Khaimah Championship
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