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The very long Green Eagle GC hosts this week
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Scot Ewen Ferguson can claim a third DP World Tour win
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Local man Alex Knappe fits an unusual trend
Might it be a case of third time lucky this week?!
Two years ago the column noted that winners at Green Eagle GC, home of this week's Porsche European Open, have typically had an excellent record on modern courses in China.
It's a connection that feels a little flimsy at first glance - what has the Far East got to do with a layout near Hamburg? - but those modern Chinese courses are put together in much the same manner as Green Eagle was.
How so? Well, the land is not ideal golfing territory - in the sense that the soil and terrain needed plenty of manipulation - and it is modern designers who created the tests, all of them conforming to the requirements of owners whose desire was ultimately to host tour events (which means making it long with lots of water).
So, to return to my question, can I make it third time lucky?
Because it was in 2021 that I first spotted the trend but didn't identify Marcus Armitage, winner of the 2016 Foshan Open in China, as a threat ahead of him carding a superb final round 65 to win in this event.
And last year I returned to the theme, this time overlooking Kalle Samooja who won in similar fashion. China win in his log book? Yes, the 2018 Hainan Open. Final round brilliance to win this tournament? Yes, a 64 to set a target no-one could match.
And who were the other three DP World Tour winners at Green Eagle? Paul Casey (winner at Yalong Bay and Shenzhen in China), Richard McEvoy (the odd one out but he has been T11th at Foshan) and Jordan Smith (third at Topwin and fifth at Genzon).
And the course also once hosted the Challenge Tour when it was won by Andreas Harto (who has finished seventh at Binhai Lake).
Conclusion? We'll definitely follow this line of enquiry and hope the horse hasn't bolted.
Do also remember that this is a mighty test that can be stretched out to 7,603 yards even though it has five par-3s.
There are also five par-5s, the shortest of which is 594-yards while the longest is 705.
Ergo, there are just the eight par-4s (and five of them are over 460-yards!).
Main Bet: Ewen Ferguson 1pt each-way @ 40/1
First pick was a close call between a pair of young Scots and although Grant Forrest appealed the decision has gone in favour of Ewen Ferguson.
Forrest has five top 20s in his last seven starts including eighth last week in the Netherlands and has twice been a runner-up in China.
Ferguson was also eighth in the KLM Open last week, a third top eight finish in his last five starts (the other two were top fours).
His record in China is not so elevated but it is consistent: he's been the halfway leader ahead of finishing T10th and T17th at Foshan, and T15th and T34th at Hainan.
The clincher for me is that Ferguson has two wins at this level to Forrest's one and that he is a bigger price.
He also just really impressed me last year in compiling a four-shot 54-hole lead in Kenya (which he lost but quickly learned from), a win in Qatar, another win in Northern Ireland, and a fine second in Denmark.
When I feel he has a sniff, in a field like this, at this sort of price, I'll bite.
Next Best: Marcus Armitage 1pt each-way @ 66/1
Keeping it simple here.
Marcus Armitage fits the China winner bill but then he helped set it as the winner here in 2021.
What really appeals is that, after a stodgy start to the season, he's started to suggest that a good result is around the corner and yet we can still get him at this price.
Three starts ago he was ninth in the Italian Open.
Next up, he made a slow start in Belgium but made the cut thanks to a fine 65 and added 69-71 for T28th.
Last week in Holland he was fourth at halfway before drifting back to T29th.
Back at a place with fond memories he can push on for the places and maybe even grab a second win.
Final Bet: Alexander Knappe 1pt each-way @ 150/1
I also dug a little deeper with regard to the China link last year and it was somewhat backed up by the result.
I noted that any players who had finished top two at Green Eagle and ever played at Foshan had a fine record at the latter.
Armitage won there, Thomas Detry had been tied sixth, Darius Van Driel tied fifth, Robert MacIntyre lost a play-off, Matthias Schwab was T14th, McEvoy T11th, Christofer Blomstrand tied ninth and T20th, and Bernd Ritthammer had three top 30s there.
Samooja didn't fit this bill (two missed cuts) but the runner-up Wil Besseling? He'd been eighth at Foshan (and also third at Sanya Luhuitou).
That leads me to Germany's own Alexander Knappe who was the 54-hole leader at Foshan ahead of finishing second in 2016 and, in his only other start there, the halfway leader ahead of landing fourth.
He was also the winner of the 2016 Hainan Open in China on the Challenge Tour.
He's not without experience of Green Eagle either: he was T12th on debut in 2017 and eighth at halfway last year before finishing T25th.
What inspires the pick is that, although he's missed his last four cuts, he is having his best campaign on the DP World Tour.
He was third in the Thailand Classic, sixth in the Indian Open and the 54-hole leader in the Jonsson Workwear Open.
He's finally showing his A game at this level and this might be a spot where he can deliver it again.
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