Main Bet: Renato Paratore 1pt each-way @ 100/1
This week has the look of the straw that broke the camel's back.
The DP World Tour has had a pretty full on schedule since the US Open and has regular activity every week until the middle of October.
The ISPS Handa World Invitational has the lowest prize fund of any of that long run and money talks: this is the week many have chosen to take to have a breather.
Niall Horan, whose Modest! Management group runs the event, might have good reason to be a little disappointed. The LPGA event, which runs concurrently is also lacking in firepower, but from a punting perspective it is not always a bad thing when the big names are away - it provides opportunity.
And I just wonder if Italy's Renato Paratore hasn't been overlooked this week.
Because so many of those priced 66/1 or better are high up there for showing a little bit of form without possessing long-term firepower - it's just that this is a weak field and this could be their week.
That's fine and makes sense, yet it can pay heed to ponder names below them.
There's no arguing that Paratore's case is not straightforward. Put simply, he has been in appalling form.
Since tagging three top 25s together last October he has made just three cuts in 18 starts and has not one top 30.
But he made the cut in the Irish Open and he was third last week at Celtic Manor.
He also found more fairways last week than he has in a long time, it helped him find more greens and he putted exceptionally well.
He's never played the course but he has won at Barseback and has multiple top 10s at Dar es Salam and Crans sur Sierre so trees don't bother him.
He also has a win on parkland in GB&I when the British Masters winner in 2020 at Close House.
There's no denying that it's an attempt to pull a rabbit from the hat.
But in a week like this one you can take a fellow in form or obviously well-suited at a lower price, and it can make sense (see below for that argument).
Or you can also sense that a guy is a two-time winner at this level, has a top three last time out and is a big price with lots of potential. I'm taking that chance.
Next Best: David Horsey 1pt each-way @ 28/1
Englishman David Horsey is a classic of a certain type of player who becomes likeable as a betting prospect every now and again.
In his case, he likes treelined, parkland golf courses.
He made his first top five at this level at Huntingdale in Australia, first made a mark on the second tier among the trees in Argentina, his first win was at Limburg, a parkland track in Belgium.
In his breakthrough second season on the DP World Tour he won at Eichenried and finished top four at Royal Park in Italy and Hilversum in the Netherlands.
His second win was among more trees in Moscow.
He's played well at Wentworth, Royal Johannesburg, Milano, Carya, Valderrama and Muthaiga.
And he was second here last year, finishing one blow back of the lead after being in that position with 18 holes to play.
When he likes a spot he repeats his form: he's done it at Eichenried, Himmerland, Le Palais Royal in Morocco, and in Moscow (he's even won at all of those).
Form-wise he is not pulling up trees, but that's okay - he likes them.
He was T58th in the Cazoo Classic when in the top 10 at halfway and T30th at the Hero Open when in the top 30 all week.
He also took Celtic Manor off, probably aware that this is a better opportunity for him.
Final Bet: A Lim Kim 1pt each-way @ 20/1
For the final bet this week I'm going to venture into the women's event.
As mentioned, the field is weakened and the big names are British, Irish and European.
Georgia Hall leads the betting, Leona Maguire is second and Linn Grant third.
It's a one-two-three that makes perfect sense: Hall is a major winner, Maguire the home favourite and a winner this year, Grant has made a startling start to her professional career.
Of the three I'd have snapped Grant up had she been around 16s (she played well last week at Muirfield but talked of not quite hitting the right shots for the linksland in the last two weeks - being back on parkland might suit).
They are followed by the American Ryan O'Toole and then Korea's A Lim Kim and I'm not sure that the latter should a) be ahead of O'Toole, and b) be 20/1.
She won the 2020 US Women's Open in her very first start on the LPGA and struggled a little last year.
But she's missed just one cut in her last 25 starts, she was a winner when she returned to the Korean LPGA in May, and she was T13th last week in the AIG Women's Open.
She won't have the distractions of the other four in the top five in the betting and she could sneak up on their blind side.
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