Dubai Desert Classic Each-Way Tips: Nicolai can ride the desert wind

Matt Cooper
25 January 2022
4:00 min read

The Majlis Course at the Emirates GC, long-time host of the tournament.

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The DP World Tour's Desert Swing continues with the Dubai Desert Classic and Matt Cooper has three selections with the Betfair Sportsbook paying eight places...

"He is a very fine, and long, driver of the ball, a factor that is often beneficial on the Majlis Course at the Emirates GC." Nicolai Hojgaard 1pt each-way @ 67.066/1

Main Bet: Nicolai Hojgaard 1pt each-way @ 66/1

I'm not sure if anyone has mentioned as much - it's a subject that's rarely mentioned, after all - but Dubai has changed quite a bit since what was the European Tour first visited for the Desert Classic in 1989.

I'm being clunkily sarcastic, of course, because your social media timelines will be littered with photographs demonstrating just how much has altered over the last 33 years.

I'd argue that the most jarring difference between the past and the present is the increasingly lary behaviour of the ex-pats pickling themselves in the hospitality units.

Last year's end-of-season DP World Tour Championship at Jumeirah, and last week's Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship at Yas Links, were both played with a boorish backing track of weirdly uninformed reactions to missed putts and churlish goading. There's good change and bad change - this one can safely be ranked among the latter.

Another element of history, of course, is how the older generation passes on the baton.

Back in 1989 Tony Jacklin, an original member of the European Tour, was in the field. He didn't achieve much - he carded 76-79 - but he was only three blows behind another victim of the cut, a youngster by the name of Colin Montgomerie.

Monty also plays this week, as do the 20-year-old Hojgaard twins, Rasmus and Nicolai, who presumably have a great chance of still playing in another two or three decades. So it's entirely plausible that just three golfers could link the first 70 or 80 years of the circuit's history. Quite something.

One of those Danish brothers, Nicolai, is the first pick this week.

A winner on the third tier Nordic Golf League when still an amateur 17-year-old, he was the first of the Hojgaards to contend on the first tier when second at the 2019 KLM Open, but then had to take a back seat as Rasmus beat him to the winner's circle.

In fact, Rasmus had lifted three trophies before Nicolai got his hands on one, in September's Italian Open, but he'd been impressive before that success and has played very well since, as well.

A pair of top 20s in the immediate aftermath of the breakthrough were lucrative and strong, as were a near-miss tied second at the Portugal Masters and tied fourth in the DP World Tour Championship.

All of that form is tempting enough, especially given he is a very fine, and long, driver of the ball, a factor that is often beneficial on the Majlis Course at the Emirates GC.

But both those latter two results are also good indicators, especially the runner-up finish at Dom Pedro.

Alvaro Quiros, Rafa Cabrera Bello and Lucas Herbert have all finished top two in Portugal and won in Dubai; Tom Lewis, Andy Sullivan, Brandon Stone and Laurie Canter nearly have.

Good news for Thomas Pieters, winner at Dom Pedro last autumn and also last week, but his price is about right. For each value, better to give Nicolai a chance.

Next Best: Adri Arnaus 1pt each-way @ 45/1

Second selection Adri Arnaus has a handy record at Dom Pedro as well. He's gone sub-70 in six of his eight laps there and was second at halfway two months ago before finishing tied eighth.

He also followed that up with an impressive effort of his own at the DP World Tour Championship when tied ninth and last week he closed with a 65 for T20th.

He actually boasts a very fine record in the United Arab Emirates. He won the 2018 Challenge Tour Grand Final at Al Hamra and finished T12th and T20th at Abu Dhabi GC.

That top 10 at Jumeirah wasn't his first either - he was T10th there in 2020 and T28th on debut a year earlier.

Then there's his tournament record. In three starts on the Majlis, he's always been top 20 after 36 holes, was T29th on debut in 2019, third in 2020, and tied ninth last year when derailed only by a poor third round.

For a player with the capacity to hit big drives and soaring approach shots he can be irritatingly poor on the par-5s. In fact, it's almost become comical how haplessly he attacks them at times.

It's therefore heartening that he played the long holes at Emirates decently last year and very well in 2020.

dean burmester dp world tour champs 2021.jpg

Final bet: Dean Burmester 1pt each-way @ 40/1

This week's team is completed by another fan of golf in the UAE - South Africa's Dean Burmester.

"I don't know what it is about the Middle East," he said two years ago. "I obviously like it a lot and I think I just see the greens and the lines pretty well."

He was tied seventh on his debut at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship; he's finished tied fourth (twice), T14th and tied sixth on the Earth Course at Jumeirah in the DP World Tour Championship; and last week he was a neat T25th at Yas Links.

Now he has the chance to re-acquaint himself with the Majlis Course where he owns a 4-for-4 record at making the cut and was tied third back in 2020.

A big-hitter with an aggressive attitude, he can make in-roads on the back nine with its vulnerable set of par-5s and short par-4s.

He's even got a decent record at Dom Pedro: tied seventh on debut in 2017 and T14th in 2019, when second heading into the final round.

The clincher for Burmester is just what a bold performer he has become.

In the last two calendar years he's made 51 starts around the world and 14 of them reaped top eight finishes. Among those number were two Sunshine Tour events (including a win), but he also added a DP World Tour victory in Spain.

That's a good ratio at this price. Throw in his desert form and he makes a handsome case.

MATT'S 2021 P/L

Staked: 4pts Returned: 0pts 2022 P/L: -4pts 2021 P/L: +49pts

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