Cyprus Showdown Each-Way Tips: Garrick can prove club class

Main Bet: Garrick Higgo each-way @ 25/1

When presented with a new tournament format golf fans and observers often resemble a family which gripes about having turkey every Christmas dinner, but when mum takes note and proudly unveils a goose the ungrateful lot pull a collective sour face and mutter that they'd have preferred turkey after all.

So it was when organisers of the European Tour's Cypriot fortnight announced that they were pepping up a second week at Aphrodite Hills with not only a different formula, but an entirely novel one.

Completely mangling my metaphor, the Showdown format only had to be explained to be widely deemed a turkey.

I'm willing to give it a shot however - 36 holes of qualifying strokeplay, a reset of the scores, a third round that halves the remaining field, another reset, and a final lap race to the line with just the top 16 and ties.

The one element it ought to guarantee is large-scale final day volatility and that's something standard strokeplay often lacks (unless there's high wind) because in the 21st century the winners of PGA and European Tour events has come from the top six and ties with 18 holes to play no less than 92% of the time (from an average of about 65 players teeing it up).

The pre-final round commentary cry that "Anyone can win it!" is therefore mostly hokum, but this week it will actually be true of those left standing on Sunday morning.

And the quest to find a trio among that merry band starts with the exciting young South African Garrick Higgo.

The first element of this week is no different to normal: make the weekend. Thereafter going low will matter, especially on Sunday, and the 21-year-old has truly impressed in that regard throughout 2020.

His final start on the Sunshine Tour in the spring saw him land the Tour Championship with a pair of 66s in the final two rounds.

When next seen he was clocking up a first European Tour ten in Austria with scores of 65-69-67-69.

Higgo, also a selection for Steve Rawlings this week, then added another top ten in Northern Ireland with a weekend rush of 67-65, before closing laps of 66-65 in the Open de Portugal to earn a first win in Europe.

He swiftly took to this venue last week, opening 68-66 before confirming a tie for third with 67-65 over the final 36 holes, all that coming after a pair of top 30s against high-grade fields in the Scottish Open and BMW PGA Championship.

It was conspicuous that this protege of Gary Player took to the par-5 18th hole at Aphrodite Hills last week, firing at the pin with his second shot and playing it in 5-under-par for the four rounds.

Given that the chances of a play-off would appear to be greater this week than normal, that fondness for the last test might ultimately be rather handy.

Next Best: Rasmus Hojgaard each-way @ 25/1

Something occurred to me watching last week's conclusion - a possible similarity between the Tour's home for these two weeks and the test at Al Mouj, the Greg Norman design which hosts the Oman Open (and was previously a regular Challenge Tour stop).

The winner, Callum Shinkwin, is a two-time 54-hole leader there; the man who threatened to win with nine holes to play, Sami Valimaki, is the reigning champion there; play-off loser Kalle Samooja was third at halfway in March; Matthew Southgate, who flew home on a wet sail on Sunday (carding a 64 with a triple bogey), shared the first and third round lead there in 2018; and top ten finisher Adrien Saddier has twice finished third on the Middle East track.

Is it a credible connection? I think so - both are modern designs and near the coast so are sometimes prey to gusty wind.

Al Mouj is largely flat and certainly lacks the gorges present in Cyprus, but the way some of the tee shots and approaches set up to the eye were similar and that thought prompts the last two picks.

First up is Rasmus Hojgaard, the 19-year-old Danish whizzkid who opened his rookie season with victory in the Mauritius Open and then ended a superb run of four top tens on the summer UK Swing with a second triumph in the UK Championship at The Belfry.

Since then life has been a little tougher with introductions to Valderrama, the US Open, a brutally cold and windy Scottish Open and Wentworth.

He also made a regular PGA Tour debut last week in Bermuda, finishing a solid enough T37th, and it was a venture which might put some off backing him given that Bermuda to Cyprus is far from a straightforward request of his flight specialist.

But this week's format might play into his hands in that regard because if there is any sluggishness in his first 36 holes, so long as he makes the weekend, any deficit is wiped.

And the deciding factor is that he shared the lead through 36 and 54 holes at Al Mouj this year which, added to his win on a holiday track in Mauritius, suggests he might attack this test with relish and like Higgo he can go low - ten of his 16 UK Swing rounds were sub-68.

Final Bet: Clement Sordet each-way @ 100/1

We'll round out this week's trio with a bigger price and a rubber-stamped Al Mouj specialist in the shape of Frenchman Clement Sordet.

I was in attendance when he won the Challenge Tour Grand Final there in 2017 and he couldn't hide the smile when told that the layout was immediately transferring to the following year's main tour schedule.

He only recorded T37th on that occasion, but in 2019 he very nearly scored another victory before finishing second and he was tied tenth there earlier this year.

He got off to a decent enough start last week, carding 66-68 to be T12th on Saturday morning and he was clipping along nicely through the turn in his third round until one bad hole derailed his challenge.

He spends a fair bit of time in Mauritius and if he enjoys the golf there (and why would he return if he didn't?), it would set him up nicely enough for the golf in Paphos.