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20/121.00 Daniel Berger is back in form and a course specialist
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35/136.00 Cameron Young is another local with a fine record here
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50/151.00 Lucas Glover has PGA National form and is putting well
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Brief history of the Cognizant Classic
The Cognizant Classic - or Honda in old money - looks as wide open as ever this year as most of the elite players sit it out and bide their time until the upcoming Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship.
The front of the betting highlights that, with everyone in the field available over 16/117.00.
Russell Henley and Shane Lowry share favouritism at 18/119.00, with Daniel Berger 20/121.00, Sepp Straka 22/123.00 and Sungjae Im 25/126.00.
All that top five have either won (Straka 2022, Im 2020) or finished runner-up in this event.
There have been a couple of dual winners since it was first played for in 1972. Those two-time champions are Jack Nicklaus, Johnny Miller, Mark Calcavecchia and Padraig Harrington.
The history buffs among you will realise that all are Open winners although only Harrington won at PGA National.
That said, he's not the only Claret Jug winner to have triumphed on this tough Florida track and there is plenty of correlation between the two events.
It makes sense. PGA National, like Open tracks, is mostly flat and exposed to the wind.
The par 71 measures 7,147 yards and wind will affect winning scores. When it blows, single digits under par has often been enough.
This year the weather forecast looks fairly tame, especially Saturday, so perhaps we'll push up to Austin Eckroat's winning score of 17-under (he won by three) from 12 months ago.
The lack of gusts will take some of the bite out of the Bear Trap, the tough trio of closing holes, while the overseeding of the grainy Bermuda rough and slightly softer conditions will also be favourable for scoring.
Perhaps the tamer conditions make it more likely we'll get one of the favourites winning and, while respecting all of them, Daniel Berger looks the one most ready to win.
Let's start with his current form which immediately takes the eye.
Two tournaments ago, he played some excellent golf to finish runner-up, albeit a distant one to Thomas Detry, at the WM Phoenix Open.
He ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and also 3rd for Driving Accuracy.
With four previous top 11s in Phoenix, it reminded us that he has strong course horse tendencies. Hold that thought.
Berger followed it with 12th at Torrey Pines and that was just as impressive in some ways. Why? It was his best finish in eight starts there in a regular PGA Tour event.
Added to those ideal preps is a great course record at PGA National.
Berger almost won here at a massive price as a youngster on debut back in 2015 while he's finished fourth in two of his last three visits, 2020 and 2022.
The latter was one that really got away as he was five shots clear with 18 to play.
A Florida local, Berger lives near the course and this is one of his very favourite stops on the PGA Tour.
As he said in 2022: "It's one of the events that I always circle on my schedule just being 15 minutes from here and having some good memories in the past. It's a great event. I love coming back."
Speaking more recently in Phoenix, Berger said: "I feel healthy. I feel happy. I feel like I'm enjoying golf." After time out with back trouble, it looks like he's returned to the levels that helped him reel off four PGA Tour wins to grab a place on the 2021 Ryder Cup team.
With his putter warming up (19th for SGP at Torrey Pines), let's back Berger at 20s.
Back Daniel Berger each-way
Perhaps I'm a little bit seduced by the links with Open form or maybe I just want to be on him when he wins.
Plenty will have rather given up on Cam Young but the 2022 St Andrews runner-up, who was also eighth at Hoylake (second after 54 holes) clearly has bags of pedigree. His time will surely come.
So why not at PGA National where he's had two knocks and finished 16th (2022) and fourth (2024).
In those eight rounds, Young has twice shot 65 while he closed with a 66 last year.
Winding further back he won an AJGA event at PGA National in 2013.
One other reason for his recent success there is that the New Yorker is now a local resident.
Speaking last year, Young said: "I live right here, so all the golf really within the state (Florida) is very comfortable. Here is very familiar, and I get to sleep in my own bed, which is nice."
That mention of Florida is also worth exploring as his record there is excellent.
He has five top 20s in his last nine starts in the Sunshine State. That includes 10th in the 2023 Arnold Palmer while last year he was fourth here and also runner-up in the Valspar Championship.
Young produced a bit of a mixed bag on the West Coast Swing but eighth at The Sentry and 12th in Phoenix show he's not far away.
And he's also been sharpening his game in the TGL where he played in New York's loss to Los Angeles Golf Club on Monday night. "I think I'm also just hitting it better than I was a week ago," said Young when asked about his team's improved performance in defeat.
On the list of 'where will Young get his first win?', PGA National is surely pretty high up.
Back Cameron Young each-way
I'll make it a hat-trick of Florida residents by adding in Lucas Glover at 50s.
There are a few around that price I looked at - Andrew Novak, Lee Hodges and Ryan Gerard - but Glover is the one I like best.
A back-to-back winner on the PGA Tour in 2023 - we were on the second of those at St Jude (66/1) - the veteran is still churning out plenty of high-quality golf.
That's shown by a trio of top three finishes in his last 10 PGA Tour starts: the Sanderson Farms Championship, the Black Desert Championship and Pebble Beach earlier this month.
One reason why Glover had his purple patch 18 months ago was a big improvement on the greens.
The putter has been less reliable since but he seems to have it under good control again now.
The 45-year-old ranked 5th for SG: Putting at Pebble while last time out he was 15th for SGP in The Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines where he closed with a 67.
He's also posted Sunday 67s in the last two editions of this event, finishing 35th and 30th respectively.
That's decent PGA National form but go further back and you'll find five top 25s including a pair of fourths.
The first of Glover's five PGA Tour wins came in Florida; his second was the US Open.
In an event where veterans have done well, Glover has the skill-set and current form to make a title bid.
Back Lucas Glover each-way