Charles Schwab Challenge Each-Way Tips: Gooch can grab Colonial glory

Main Bet: Talor Gooch each-way @ 34.033/1

After last week's US PGA was played on a Perry Maxwell design with a par of 70, the PGA Tour heads to another Maxwell par 70 for this week's Charles Schwab Challenge.

Colonial Country Club stages this event for the 77th time so we have course form coming out of our ears.

One obvious question given the Maxwell link: could form from the US PGA at Southern Hills be of any use?

Chris Kirk, who finished tied fifth there, thinks so: "This (Southern Hills) is just like kind of a big-boy version of Colonial. It's longer, wider. But a really similar style of golf. You'd better drive it straight, and your short game better be good."

Last year's Colonial winner, Jason Kokrak, was ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and 7th for SG: Putting which backs that up.

Six of the first seven home in 2021 were in the top 18 for SG: Putting while eight of the top nine were in the top 20 for SGP the year before.

The other standout stat is SG: Approach. Kokrak was 8th, 2020 champion Daniel Berger 5th and 2019 winner Kevin Na 1st. Na was also 2nd for SG: Putting.

A picture is emerging then.

Heading to the SG: Approach charts, we find Talor Gooch in 20th place and he goes in as the headline pick.

Gooch had a home game in last week's US PGA and performed pretty well in front of his local Oklahoma fans, finishing in a tie for 20th.

That backed up tied 14th on his US Masters debut so a pair of top 20s in the first two majors of the year shows how he's starting to move up the ladder.

Assessing his performance at Southern Hills, he said: "The first three days, I hit it great and really didn't get much out of my game. Today I hit it not very good at all and had best round of the week.

"I'm continuing to prove to myself that my game can compete with the best of the best at the best venues at the highest level."

That sounds like a player with a spring in his step and hopefully he can carry the momentum from a closing 68 at the US PGA to make a big mark here.

Gooch has made his last three cuts in this event and shot in the 60s in seven of his last nine rounds at Colonial Country Club.

Last year he opened 67-69-68 to sit ninth with 18 holes to go but couldn't quite see it through and settled for tied 14th.

Still, that was his best Colonial result after previous finishes of tied 29th and tied 43rd and 12 months ago he ranked 10th in Approach here so that has to bode well.

His short game is excellent - 6th SG: Around The Green and 20th in Sand Saves this season - and if some of the top guns are slightly off, he has the class to step in and claim his second PGA Tour win.

Back the World No.35 at 33/1.

Main Bet: Harold Varner each-way @ 51.050/1

Harold Varner has caught the eye in the last two editions of the Charles Schwab Challenge although finishing positions of tied 32nd (2021) and tied 19th (2020) don't initially tell you that.

However, last year he overcame a sluggish start (74) to shoot 64-67 over his middle 36 holes to jump from 98th to 17th before slipping away on Sunday.

Two years ago we was the 18 and 36-hole leader after opening 63-66. A 70 put him seventh with a lap to go but again he shot a 72 to drop to tied 19th.

But clearly Varner can shoot low numbers on this course and it's a place he loves coming to.

Varner hit all 18 greens in regulation in his opening 63 two years ago and said: "It's a great golf course. It's set up for ball strikers. Just had a really good game plan. Just hit a lot of fairways so you give yourself a lot of chances to hit greens."

He ranks 37th for Approach this season and gained nearly four strokes on the field in that department at Southern Hills last week.

Varner had to settle for tied 48th at the US PGA due to a bad putting performance which isn't ideal. But before not getting to grips with those greens in Tulsa, he was ranked 60th for SG: Putting for the season so hopefully it was just one of those weeks.

Last month, he was tied 23rd at Augusta and then played extremely well the week after when third at the RBC Heritage where he ranked 7th for SG: Putting and 3rd for Approach.

And having beaten some big names to win the Saudi International in February, Varner should enjoy the presence here of Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and last week's 1-2 Justin Thomas and Will Zalatoris.

Finally, there is some strong correlating form between Colonial Country Club and TPC Deere Run, home of the John Deere Classic. Varner has finished 11th and 6th in two of the last three editions of the JDC.

Back him here at 50/1.

Main Bet: Stewart Cink each-way @ 101.0100/1

Regular readers of this column will know the fun we had when backing Stewart Cink at last year's RBC Heritage.

Noting that his first five wins on the PGA Tour came the week after playing well in a major, Cink went into the staking plan and landed us a real 125/1 coup.

His finishes in those majors were 13th, 28th, 17th, 17th and 14th so given that he's coming to Colonial on the back of 23rd at Southern Hills this is auto-bet territory!

Before that top 25 at the US PGA, Cink was 9th at the Wells Fargo while in March he was 7th at the Valspar Championship. In other words, he's found some good form again.

And Colonial seems a decent place for him to continue it. Cink was runner-up in 2000, 10th on his penultimate appearance in 2017 and over the years he's racked up no less than 12 top 25s on the famed Texas layout.

He's also showing up well in the Approach stats (7th at both the Valspar and Wells Fargo) while the veteran is driving and putting nicely too.

I was a little wary of what his price might be but 100/1 is absolutely grand and he looks the pick of those at three-figure odds.

Elsewhere, past winners Kokrak and Na have decent credentials, as does Gary Woodland. They're all 40/1.

Sebastian Munoz also enters calcuations given that he was third at Colonial last year and third at the Byron Nelson two starts ago. The Texas-based Colombian clearly likes these home games.

Sungjae Im couldn't get clearance to play the US PGA after Covid but he's back here and, if sharp enough, could go well. He's already been clipped from 33s to 28s.

But I'm happy to go with three players who had solid weeks and showed encouraging signs at Southern Hills and back Gooch, Varner and Cink.