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50/151.00 Justin Rose is capable of going very low
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40/141.00 Collin Morikawa looks overpriced
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50/151.00 Emiliano Grillo keeps starting fast
Weather forecast for Thursday
It could be a rainy start to the tournament on day one. What's more, that could develop into a t-storm. Winds look fairly consistent at a testing 15mph for most of the day.
Note that with just 50 players starting, tee-times are fairly cramped. The first of the 25 two-balls head off at 08.26; the last pair tee it up at 1pm. It's hard to see any bias so I'll pick freely.
Back Justin Rose @ 50/151.00
Justin Rose has played feast or famine golf over the last month or so.
He made the top four in July's British Masters but followed that with missed cuts in the Scottish Open and the Open Championship.
Rose took it to new extremes in last week's St. Jude Championship, opening with a 76 but going 15 shots lower with a 61 in round three.
As for this market, the Englishman was the FRL at the British Masters while he also led the way on Thursday in this event on on his third appearance.
We don't really know what we'll get with Rose at the moment but given that the upside is seriously good, let's play him at 50/151.00 (1/5, six places).
The man who has led the US Masters after 18 holes on four different occasions tees off at 08.59.
Back Collin Morikawa @ 40/141.00
Collin Morikawa is thrown in among the 40/141.00 shots for first-round leader this week and, on first glance, he looks out of place.
Second glance adds to the feeling that he should be more in line with the bunch at 25/126.00 and 28/129.00.
Morikawa does well on tough US tracks as highlighted by his record in the US Open and US PGA.
He also showed that here in 2020, closing with a pair of 68s to make the top 20.
The two-time Major champion was the round one pacesetter in the opening event of the calendar year when shooting 8-under 65 at the Tournament of Champions.
And on his last two starts in America, he began with a 66 to sit 10th after the first lap of the Rocket Mortgage Classic and last week an opening 65 put him third at the end of day one at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Morikawa is one of the later starters at 11.54.
Back Emiliano Grillo @ 50/151.00
Emiliano Grillo is one of my outright selections this week due to a run of good form.
That included a sixth in The Open at Hoylake followed by 10th in the 3M Open. Last week he added another top 20 at TPC Southwind.
But he's also been bursting out of the traps during that spell which makes him a bet in this market at 50/151.00.
The Argentine shared the first-round lead at Hoylake via a 66 while he's opened with 65s at both the 3M Open and last week's St. Jude Championship.
Those two low ones put him sixth and third respectively on the round one leaderboard.
Rewinding a little further, in May he was seventh after 18 holes at both the Wells Fargo Championship and the Charles Schwab Challenge which he went on to win.
Grillo gets underway at 09.21.