BMW Championship Each-Way Tips: Theegala to take first win

Main Bet: Sahith Theegala each-way @ 81.080/1

I need a winner so it's perhaps not ideal that leg two of the FedEx Cup playoffs heads to a course never previously used on the PGA Tour.

Wilmington Country Club's South Course is a par 71 measuring 7,534 yards.

It was designed by Robert Trent Jones Sr. in 1959 but upgraded/reworked by Andrew Green in 2021 following a huge storm in August 2020 which took everything in its path including 300 trees.

The course has been re-routed for this event but the property will be familiar to Justin Thomas, who contested the 2013 Palmer Cup there. He did well too, banking 3.5pts.

The director of golf, Michael Shank (oh dear), says: "The South Course presents challenging tee shots with fairway bunkers guarding the landing zones, very large putting surfaces divided into multiple sections and flash-faced bunkers."

History shows that following in-form players is usually a wise move in the playoffs. And that tactic makes even more sense in a week with no course form to lean on.

On the map, Wilmington is around 45 minutes away from Merion Golf Club, scene of Justin Rose's 2013 US Open win, and also Aronimink where Keegan Bradley beat Rose in a playoff to win this tournament in 2018.

Does Rose's name appearing twice hint at area form being a useful angle? Possibly.

I'm going to open with a punt on Sahith Theegala at 80/1 which seems a fair price in a field now reduced to 70 players.

Theegala mixes current and regional form due to a second place at the Travelers Championship in late June. TPC River Highlands is a four-hour drive up the east coast from Wilmington.

In truth, Theegala should have won but he's not let his head drop. The American with Indian heritage was tied 16th at John Deere a week later, had a good Open debut and started with a 63 before banking tied 13th in last week's St Jude Championship, a result which moved him to 28th in the FedEx Cup rankings.

As it stands, that's just enough to punch his ticket to East Lake but he needs to keep his foot down.

Back to last week and perhaps Will Zalatoris's victory may have resonated with Theegala more than most. That win showed that if you keep knocking at the door, it will eventually open.

Theegala has let golden opportunities slip at the Waste Management Phoenix Open (third) and the Travelers Championship (second) but, in terms of experience, that's money in the bank for next time.

If good driving is important this week, Theegala's comments from the St Jude also bode well.

"Biggest takeaway is probably just I drove it great all week. It was probably one of my best driving weeks of my life. It's really cool to see that from me because that's always been the worst part of my game, and gives me a lot of confidence for the next couple weeks."

The stats back it up - he was 11th for SG: Off The Tee - so hopefully the rookie can give it a big run at 80/1.

Next Best: Denny McCarthy each-way @ 101.0100/1

Another player having a strong year without getting over the line is Denny McCarthy.

In the last couple of months the 29-year-old has finished tied fifth in the Memorial Tournament, tied seventh in the US Open and tied sixth in the John Deere.

Those excellent performances have helped him up to 36th in the FedEx Cup standings so a good week here and he'll make it through to the 30-man shootout at East Lake for the first time in his career.

What I like about McCarthy is the clear improvement in his long game. This flurry of good finishes isn't just being built on putting, the usual strength of his game.

He was 14th for SG: Tee To Green at Memorial, 24th in the US Open and 9th at the John Deere (8.143).

McCarthy had a dip with missed cuts at the Rocket Mortgage and Wyndham Championship but hit back with a top 20 at last week's St Jude Championship where he opened 66-65 and ranked 8th for Greens In Regulation.

Talking about those improvements, he said at TPC Southwind: "I put a lot of work on my driving and my iron play.

"I took three weeks off. I kind of got into some bad habits, wasn't driving it well, wasn't hitting crisp, solid iron shots.

"So brought my coach in Monday, Tuesday and just worked on some of the feels we do, getting that nice aggressive turn through the ball. We got back to some of those feels and it feels really good right now.

"The more I hit it like I know I can, the more I'm going to put myself in contention. Obviously putting is the strength of my game, so I'm hitting fairways and greens and giving myself a ton of looks. I like being in that situation.

"I know if I just keep putting the hard work in and sticking to the process, good things are going to come my way."

Ranked 3rd in Strokes Gained: Putting, there's definitely the potential for McCarthy to challenge if his long game continues to flourish.

As with Theegala, 100/1 seems a big price in a limited field and with some of the big guns not firing on all cylinders.

Final Bet: Scott Stallings each-way @ 101.0100/1

I put up Scott Stallings as my 100/1 headline pick last week in a field of 125 but it didn't work out as he missed the cut.

But he still qualifies as an in-form player having gone 13-10-4-8 in his four starts prior to that.

And although not making it through to the weekend at St Jude he wasn't exactly far off by shooting 71-69.

If there was damage, it was to his FedEx Cup ranking and that's now slipped to 47th, leaving him 17 spots away from making the final 30.

Another way of framing that is incentive. Despite three PGA Tour wins, Stallings hasn't ever made it through to the Tour Championship so, in his current form, this is a golden chance.

A reminder of the Stallings quotes I used last week... "I feel like I definitely got a second chance at my career. All the changes and everything that I made throughout my body and life and everything.

"It's obviously a huge blessing and honour to be out here for what I feel like is a second go-around."

Ranking in the top 50 for SG: Approach and SG: Putting as well as 37th for both Birdie Average and Scoring Average (Actual) highlights his strong play this season.

So, given the same odds (100/1) in a field cut from 125 to 70, I'm happy to give him another spin.

Much was made of his north-east connections ahead of the US Open at The Country Club so maybe they'll be revisited if he gets in the mix.

At the front end, my pick would be Will Zalatoris to score a quick follow-up win. He's 16/1.

Tony Finau showed how confidence can turn a player from nearly-man to back-to-back winner in the beat of a heart and the playoffs have a history of players winning two in a row.

US Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick (16/1) and double major winner Collin Morikawa (20/1) both finished in the top five at St Jude, as did Jon Rahm (14/1), so they have preference over Scottie Scheffler, who missed the cut.

Billy Horschel was fourth in the US Open at Merion in 2013 and third in this event at nearby Aronimink in 2018 so certainly enjoys this part of the US. He's 40/1.