Each-way terms: 1/5 odds, 6 places
Weather forecast for Thursday: It's going to be a windy one! Expect it to blow around 25mph all day and the afternoon wave may also have to contend with showers too. This will be a test although at least temperatures are in the high 70s.
Count on Camilo
There's a certain type of player who does well on the PGA Tour's small bunch of short, coastal tracks.
Often, one of the attributes needed is an ability to handle windy conditions and that's definitely the case this year given the forecast.
So step forward Camilo Villegas.
The Colombian has always enjoyed this sort of test and makes extra appeal in this market given that his best work over the last 12 months has been done early.
Villegas was the first-round leader at the RSM Classic (short, coastal track) last November and again at the Texas Open in April. More recently he was third after round one of the John Deere and fifth following the opening lap of the Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship.
He arrives on the back of a decent tied 35th in the Shriners where he opened with 67 and added a 65 in round three.
An early start could be to his advantage too so take Villegas for FRL at 75/1.
I had Nick Taylor in my thoughts in the outright market but will definitely pull the trigger on the Canadian for first-round leader given the windy conditions.
Taylor has a strong record when it blows and should be able to cope better than most.
He's also been starting fast too. In his last 11 events, the 33-year-old has been in the top 12 after Thursday's action on five occasions. In two of his last four, he's opened with a 65.
Taylor also has the best Putting Average stats in the field if measured over the last eight weeks so plenty of roads lead to him making a bright start.
By chance he's in the same three-ball as Villegas -08:19 from the 10th - so hopefully they can spur each other on.
Back Taylor at 60/1.
Aphibarnrat can battle the elements
I'll have an afternoon starter too, even though rain could be an added factor.
One interesting contender is Kiradech Aphibarnrat, who finished tied 11th in this event last year.
His good finish was fuelled by a second-round 66 and, notably, it came on a day when the wind was recorded at 22mph.
The adjusted score was 63.9 and jumped him 74 spots from 80th on the leaderboard to tied sixth.
Three starts ago he was the first-round leader in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth so let's back him at 66/1 to repeat the feat.
He goes off from the 10th at 12:59.