Main Bet: Adam Svensson each-way @ 41.040/1
The 2021/2022 PGA Tour season seems to be coming and going in a flash.
The 150th Open Championship marked the final major of 2022 and now there are just three more regular-season events before the FedEx Cup Play-offs.
There was pre-tournament talk of ludicrous scoring at St Andrews but no-one actually shot lower than 64.
Here at TPC Twin Cities - an Arnold Palmer design [local man Tom Lehman acted as player consultant] measuring 7,431 yards and playing to a par of 71 - we saw four rounds of 62 when it debuted in 2019.
Matthew Wolff won that edition with 21-under although it's no pushover as shown by Cameron Champ's 15-under winning total last year. That was two in front of Louis Oosthuizen, Charl Schwartzel and Jhonattan Vegas.
And if Wolff and Champ's victories suggest this is for big hitters only, Michael Thompson (ranked 191st in Driving Distance this season) and Adam Long (167th DD) were the first two home in 2020.
The course has Bentgrass greens and just three par fives.
Statistically, it's somewhat confusing. Champ (Camerons are good at golf, aren't they) and Thompson both ranked 1st for SG: Putting but Wolff was only 44th.
However, setting up lots of chances and converting them appears to be the recipe and SG: Putting and SG: Approach seem the best places to look.
My first bet is Adam Svensson.
The Canadian is 46th for SG: Approach this season and was 3rd in that category when finishing tied sixth at the Barbasol Championship last time.
That top six followed on from a trio of top 25s at the John Deere Classic, Travelers Championship and the Canadian Open so he's in a really nice stretch of form.
Ranked 91st on the FedEx Cup standings, Svensson has some course form too.
His only start here came in 2019 and he finished in a tie for 15th. That included a second-round 64.
The 28-year-old opened with a 62 in the Barbasol two weeks ago and also fired a Friday 64 in the Travelers so he's been shooting the low scores that will be needed here.
Back him at 40/1.
Next Best: Chris Gotterup each-way @ 41.040/1
I backed Chris Gotterup in the Barbasol at probably far too short a price - 20/1.
Yes, it was a weak field but he was an in-form player who made a bunch of birdies. That's the deal here.
Between tipping him on Tuesday and the start of the tournament on Thursday, Gotterup admitted he needed a break and wanted to go home and see his cats.
That dampened enthusiasm and, lo and behold, he missed the cut. That said he did shoot a 67 in round two.
Looking back, he'd played the week before the US Open, four rounds in the year's third major itself (tied 43rd) and then three straight weeks after that. It was a heavy schedule.
But before the Barbasol he'd finished tied sixth in the John Deere Classic - opening with a 65 and closing with a 66 - and after a couple of weeks off I'm hoping he's refreshed and ready to go again.
Gotterup won the prestigious Fred Haskins award earlier this year for being the nation's top collegiate golfer and was tied seventh in the Puerto Rico Open in March on his very first start on the PGA Tour.
He poured in birdies galore in Puerto Rico and the John Deere Classic and the 22-year-old is a massive hitter in the mould of previous 3M Open winners Wolff and Champ.
Gotterup hasn't played enough to be registered in the Driving Distance stats but if he was his 323.1 average hit would rank him 1st.
Double the price that he was at the Barbasol, I'll go in again at 40/1.
Final Bet: Cameron Davis each-way @ 23.022/1
We got used to the name Cameron at St Andrews and, as mentioned, the defending champion here is a Cameron.
That's all fluff of course although there could be something in Cameron Davis feeling inspired by his pal Cam Smith lifting the Claret Jug.
That's the extra few percent of the argument for Davis this week; the main chunk is a simple case of course and current form.
The 27-year-old from Sydney is in a rich run of form after three top eights in his last five starts.
Two of those - tied eighth at the John Deere Classic and sixth in the Barracuda Championship - have come on his last two outings. The other was tied seventh at Colonial.
The big hitter was 11th for Approach at the John Deere and although strokes gained numbers weren't recorded in the Barracuda last week he was 11th for Greens In Regulation and 6th for Putting Average.
As for course form, he was tied 12th in the 2020 3M Open when in poor form and closed with a 64 to take tied 28th last year.
His one win on the PGA Tour came in a similar standard event at the same time of year - last July's Rocket Mortgage Classic. He shot 18-under to win that and his sole victory on the Korn Ferry was also achieved with that same score.
At Colonial, he said: "Everything is in a pretty good place. There's a lot of golf coming up right now, and I just want to make sure I keep on doing the things that I've been doing to get myself to where I am now."
It's certainly played out that way so let's chalk another one up for the Aussies and get him on board at 22/1.