Champions Lahore should be favourites
The appeal of T20 is its unpredictability and chaos. But the deal is that this occurs on the field. Not off it. The Pakistan Super League is threatening that pact with the 2026 edition already mired by poor planning and disorder. Without a ball bowled there have been issues with venues, team changes and the spectre of player exodus.
The first problem has been the scheduling, in part due to the T20 World Cup. Going head-to-head with the Indian Premier league is about as dumb as it gets if you're a cricket administrator. Why on earth would a league want to take on the game's behemoth, least of all when the destruction of Pakistan cricket is hardly a secret desire of the BCCI?
Staging a tournament at the same time causes issues in terms of player availability. The talent pool is not as deep. Players have already reneged on PSL deals (Dasun Shanaka to Rajasthan from Lahore and Blessing Muzarabani to KKR from Islamabad), much to the glee of India while four more have ruled themselves out for personal reasons.
This is compounded by the PSL deciding to move from six teams to eight, a move which at the best of times threatens the quality of a competition. Hyderabad Houston Kingsmen (of course) are in alongside Sialkot Stallionz. Apart from the fact that Sialkot are not in. They almost immediately changed their name to the established Multan Sultans franchise. Confused? You should be. Sultans has earlier changed their name to Rawalpindi Pindiz.
With less than a week to go before the start the PSL then announced that all matches would be behind closed doors due to the fuel crisis and that the matches would be played at two venues only, Lahore's Gaddafi Stadium and the Karachi National Stadium.
Among the disorder, then, one could be forgiven for seeking reassurance in the status quo. And that means betting Lahore Qalandars at 11/26.50 to win back-to-back titles for the second time (and their fourth in five years) makes sense. This column would rate them as stronger than the three joint favourites of Islamabad United, Karachi Kings and Multan Sultans at 5/16.00. United and Kings have lost some personnel while Sultans are a completely new outfit.
Classy bowling group to make the difference
Qalandars finished fourth last season so it is arguable that they remain on an upward trajectory. They have retained their impressive front three with the bat in Mohammad Naeem, Abdullah Shafique and Fakhar Zaman. With the ball, Haris Rauf and Usama Mir were bought back at the auction and Shaheen Shah Afridi was retained. Daniel Sams has replaced Shanaka while Mustafizur Rahman will have the whole country behind him after he was made a political lightning rod when the India government refused to sanction his IPL move to KKR.
The first-choice front four with the ball for Lahore is international class and not all franchises can boast such potency. Islamabad, for example, have the potential to be weak in the field and they don't seem to have recruited a bowler of international repute from the pace or spin stocks. Indeed, their close season has been catastrophic. They lost Jason Holder, their top wicket-taker from last season, and the tournament's top runscorer Sahib Farhan.
Farhan has moved to Multan, the new-old franchise. As stated, it is a completely new team so they do not bring with them the Sultans' historic pedigree. Farhan is, of course, a fantastic pick up but as is often the case in these types of leagues new team owners can be like kids let loose in a supermarket. They shop in only one section. So as mouthwatering as pairing Farhan with Steve Smith could be, the trade off could be a lack of quality with the ball. Much relies on Tabraiz Shamsi working some magic.
Two-venue tournament means low scores late on
If United and Multan are hampered by bowling balance, Karachi could be the other way. They were ranked at No 2 for bowling economy last term so the challenge is to marry that with more destructive hitting. James Vince has left for the Rawalpindi outfit and Johnson Charles has excused himself. Reeza Hendricks is a decent capture. The issue could be in the middle order where they potentially as a 60 lakh signing in Saim Baig to explode at No 3. David Warner will no doubt be astute in leadership but let's not forget that he is not the quickest of runscorers these days.
The importance of a well-balanced squad may not be immediately evident. As matches progress across just the two venues the potential to mix and match for tired, worn surfaces after heavy traffic could be key. Lahore should be fine and it would not be a surprise to see Sikandar Raza taking pace off alongside Dunith Wellalage and Usama at some stage. Quetta Gladiators, also at 11/26.50 have the potential to be dangerous in the latter stages as they would be able to bowl 12 overs of the highest quality of spin thanks to Usman Tariq, Abrar Ahmed and Arafat Minhas.
Tired wickets will likely make for attritional cricket and it could be the tournament becomes something of a low-scoring farce with the potential for matches being decided on the coin flip. Also factor in lower-order top-bat wins and low scores posted in the first innings.
Back Lahore Qalandars to win PSL