West Indies v New Zealand Third ODI Tips: Spinners to win it again

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Thursday 16 July, 19:30
TV: Sky Sports

West Indies v New Zealand third ODI team news

West Indies were weel beaten in game two after a spectacular collapse to 138 all out from 63 for no wicket. The temptation will be to try to shore up the batting but it is easier said than done.

That's because they have set out on that path from the first ball of the series. They have used only five bowlers in each of the two matches yet still look a batter light. For example, Gudakesh Motie is a fair all-rounder but No 7 feels a little high.

Their best hope is to drop Kharry Piuerre and bring in Roston Chase, who can also be relied upon to bowl. Chase is a better batter than Pierre and can be trusted anywhere outside the opening slot. There's still no Jayden Seales but pace is unlikely to be important again.

Possible XI: Campbell, Auguste, Carty, Hope, Rutherford, Jangoo, Chase, Motie, Forde, Alzarri, Lawes

New Zealand look to have found themselves another useful left-arm spinner in Jayden Lennox. His five-wicket haul won the Kiwis the game and has had a more than promising start to his ODI career.

The tourists have made it quite clear that their approach is to attack West indies with spin. There were 40 overs available in terms of bowlers used. They could also add Mark Chapman if needed. Daryl Mitchell may even be asked to bowl pace off. In an attritional affair, they could look to add batting ballast by bringing back Nathan Smith.

A bolder move would be to use only one fast bowler, noting that as soon as they pace came off

Possible XI: Young, Nicholls, Chapman, Mitchell, Latham, Foxcroft, Bracewell, Santner, Smith, Duffy, Lennox

West Indies v New Zealand third ODI pitch report

The last four first-innings scores in ODI at Providence read: 138-267-149-108-178. The last game was played on a used surface, the same as the first ODI. It would be a surprise if the same strip was used again. But the nature of the track is clear. It is slow and favour spinners. Twelve of the 13 wickets in the second ODI went to spinners and so far in the series spinners have taken 22 wickets compared to six from the pacers.

The runs markets are wise to another low-scoring affair, of course. but in-play there are opportunities. As stated for game two, the time to hit unders is during a partnership. West Indies made a good start but, as we said, they are vulnerable to collapse and there should be cheap lays available if they can put 40-60 on the board in those first three wickets batting first.

The Betfair Sportsbook offers over/under 247.5 total runs in the first-innings. On past scores that does look to be too high. If West Indies bat first, then you have a bet on your hands because their runs line is much lower at 227.5.

West Indies v New Zealand third ODI match prediction

The win for the Windies in game one did not cause any shift on the Betfair Exchange. The match odds market was unmoved with West indies at 2.305/4 and New Zealand 1.758/11. Given the nature of New Zealand's win in game two, it suggested the market knew all along. It stands to reason, then, that New Zealand's price has shifted further south. They are now no better than 1.635/8. That is about right.

New Zealand have superior nous and skill. Their balance is also better and could be improved if they bring in Smith, just in case their batters get in a spot of bother.

In-play anything at more than 1.758/11 New Zealand would represent a bet. They obviosuly drifted with that Windies strong start from the openers last time. It is possible though, that New Zealand use pace for a minimum amount of time. As soon as the spinners come on it is likely to be hard work.

West Indies v New Zealand third ODI player bets

Nornally on player markets we use conditions to filter the best route to profit. For example, on roads we go with batter milestones, taking others out of the equation, instead of top bat. On a spinning surface we want to be on the tweakers. But can we really pick out just one? Can we take others out of the equation? Yes. But the options are limited. In fact, there's only one. Pierre's performance line is available to go overs at 31.5. Given the probability that (if he plays, money back if not), he should get very close to a full quota and he would be expected to bat, it does feel like it's an overs play.

A punchy play would be to take the biggest prices on the spinners in the tops markets - that's Chase at 7/18.00 for the hosts and 13/27.50 about Dean Foxcroft for the Kiwis.

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