Learn to trade with Bet Angel today
It's the Open Golf championship this week and it's different from other majors in that it is played on rotation schedule across a number of 'links' courses in the UK. Links courses are traditionally near the sea, are near or on dunes, have an uneven surface and a sandy soil. This is in stark contrast to a lot of 'modern' courses which are often set in parkland or woods and carefully manicured.
Links Golf
Links golf is very different from traditional golf in that it's a bit harder to play consistently, especially if the weather is poor. Major championships will see the course set up for greater difficulty and poor weather can make things even harder.
Links courses are best played by hitting the ball low and accurately. Being able to belt the ball a long distance isn't so important. It's a real test of your playing abilities, especially if you end up in the rough. So a curious side effect of the Open, is that it can often produce big priced winners from further down the field, especially older experienced players.
Shorter courses which require more scrambling will there tend to favour certain players. I've noticed a tendency over the years for players that are more used to parkland courses, typically playing the US tour, often struggle to adapt. It's possible to be a specialist on a links course.
Individual profiles of golfers
To get a really good feel for a course, examine the way the course plays and the profile of a Golfer. There are loads of stats on the PGA tour sites, but one of the most important, is age!
The ageing of a golfer comes in many forms and it affects their game in many ways. First to decline is their driving from the tee. Distance and accuracy are intertwined and as players age they find it hard to get an accurate shot on the fairway. This will directly affect their next shot towards the green, so you can see how critical this is.
But it's important to note that not all courses play the same. It's also important to note that this is all relative. We are talking a few dropped shots over a round, but ultimately that can make the difference between a championship and a much smaller pay day.
While driving is a physical attribute that is irreversible, putting is far less strenuous. Driving slowly gets worse over a player's career but putting ability general peaks in the early thirties. Clever approach play the peaks around the mid thirties as experience and a fine touch nearer the green come into play. But where experience is most needed and delivered for older players is when scrambling. We can therefore conclude that the long courses favour younger players and tricky short courses should suit an elder statesman.
An important lesson from these statistics however is that the phrase 'horses for courses', also applies to golfers too. Looking at their age and other attributes should help you pick a player that despite being ranked lower than other players and at higher odds, could actually have a decent tournament. This is where you will find the best trading opportunities.
Picking a winning trade
Golf is a game of confidence as much as anything, so players who are playing well tend to carry that form forward. This year's tournament is one of the most competitive I've seen for a few years, so a winner from further down the field is perfectly possible.
With 150+ selections in the field, I tend to not focus on who will win as that's an incredibly hard thing to do. It's pretty obvious that it's quite easy to find a winning lay. That will work, but it also carries a lot of potential liability at the prices you need to lay at.
Therefore, I tend to pick through players that I think will be in contention or big movers at some point in the tournament and back a selection of them. If you use the dutching tool in Bet Angel this means you can do this to a fixed liability. Out of that group you will very often find somebody who performs well and shortens up significantly which will most likely generate a profit if you are trading. If you catch a cluster of decent selections at large prices, when the price shortens, you can trade out of a profit or leave a bit on them for the title.