You might be wondering what pre-match football trading is all about. How can we secure a profit on a football match before the first whistle has even been blown? Most people would usually expect to only take a profit after a goal has been scored.
Some of the most popular football trading strategies such as laying the draw are based on in-play moves. In-play strategies almost always rely whether goals are scored or not. Watching the footie can be fun and it's quite nice when you can actually call it "work". However, there are plenty of other ways to profit from football markets that don't depend so heavily on a ball hitting the back of a net. This is where pre-match football trading comes in.
Action Before The Kick-Off
Pre-match football trading involves placing bets before kick-off and before the market goes in-play on Betfair. If you're a regular pre-race horse trader, you could be mistaken into thinking that there's no edge to be found in pre-match football odds. However, there are some similarities.
The pre-match football charts can look incredibly horizontal in comparison to a Tuesday evening seller at Redcar. Perhaps you might see a few price swings (more on these later), but generally they are quite sideways markets where the odds will only move a few times by a small amount. Of course, there's always exceptions where markets will behave more erratically than expected. This is usually due to unexpected team news or other pivotal information being released. Watch out for that.
There are a variety of ways to profit from pre-match odds but a common approach is to trade team news. Blink and you'll miss it though, it ends up being a fastest-finger-first type scenario, but it's worth a mention as such a popular method.
News Release
As I've already mentioned, the majority of pre-match markets are horizontal but may have some small price moves at certain points. The more substantial price moves usually happen when team news is released that will have an impact on the chances of each team winning and of course, the draw.
Markets can and will move due to rumours that an important player won't be playing. This might be due to an injury or even a fallout with the manager. When these rumours are either confirmed or rejected by verified team news, the price can move even further than it already has done.
Some traders go to great lengths to get hold of team news as soon as it is released. Knowing where this news is released first is the key if you're going to trade it as some sources can be much slower than others. For example, a TV channel might only share this information after a three-minute ad break. News can come unexpectedly from a radio interview with a manager or even on social media.
Once game-changing news is confirmed, the markets will move accordingly. The initial move can cause short-term panic as traders who aren't expecting a move get caught out of position. The panic within the markets often creates value that can we can take advantage of. Although you can trade the initial move, you might look to trade the bounce where people come to their senses and realise the news isn't as dramatic as they first thought.
No News? No Problem
Take a look at this screenshot of a chart on a Confederations Cup game (Portugal vs Chile). It's a chart for the Chile to win result and was taken the night before the game was played. If you ignore the initial fluctuation (these almost always happen when any market is first opened, as liquidity is so low), the price is fairly stable. It's bounced around 3.3512/5 for quite some time, with a short spell a couple of ticks below at 3.259/4.
There hasn't (yet) been any major news stories that have dramatically affected the potential outcome of the game. The market reflects this fact as there are no major moves in price. All we see are small price fluctuations, which are perfectly normal even in the most sound of markets.
Although the price isn't moving much, it's still possible to make a profit from markets like this. The key to any kind of trading is to be aware of the market conditions at that time and the risk of it changing anytime soon. As this market is so stable at the moment, it would be a good idea to take a long-term scalping approach.
The first thing you want to watch out for is the time that you are trading. Keeping an eye on the relevant news sources can be a good idea to make sure you avoid trying to scalp when big news is coming out. It would be an idea to avoid trading the hour before kick-off, as team news is often released and can make the odds move quickly. You might find for example that the top goalscorer is on the bench or unlikely to be played at all. This could cause a hefty loss if you are caught with a large back stake on that team when the news breaks.
Placing orders at either side of the current market price will mean that you will make a small profit if both orders are filled. You might find in more popular markets that your orders are stuck behind huge numbers. £10k+ in the queue is not uncommon in bigger games and is partly why your orders will take longer to get filled.
As with all trading, this is a game of nerve and patience. Hold your nerve when the price moves slightly against you, there's a strong chance it will go back to normal and is just a natural fluctuation. Be patient in waiting for your orders to be filled. It will take time but each trade will add up to a nice profit if you are consistent over time.
You may also be interested in profitrush.com a new matched betting service.