Betfair Tennis Trading Strategies: Give me a break!

Peter Webb
Published on 13 Jun 2014 at 14:52

"Every percentage increase in skill on your serve dramatically diminishes the chance of your opponent breaking."

Successfully cashing out of a Tennis market with a profit is all about figuring out where the odds are going. A break of serve is the most significant as Peter Webb of Bet Angel explains...

Where are we likely to find a break of serve in a Tennis match? The first thing to note, obviously, is that the relative skill difference between players is a key factor in whether a break of serve occurs or not. If both players are equally matched then a break is likely on both and more certain. The key here is how often somebody wins a point when they serve.

With an 80% chance of a winning a point on serve, the chance of a break of serve is just a paltry 2.2%. This increases to 9.9% when the chance of winning a service point drops to 70%. It moves up to 17% at 65% and 26.4% at 60%. You can see that every percentage increase in skill on your serve dramatically diminishes the chance of your opponent breaking.

A player such as Ivo Karlovic has a very strong serve and this becomes a dominant factor on grass. It's very hard to break Karlovic's serve. If you want to do some research, the percentages for the service games won and the 1st and 2nd serve points won are freely available from the main tennis association web sites.

The reason for a loss of a service game tends to falls into two key components. If a player is making a number of unforced errors then they are effectively handing points to an opponent. If, when looking at equal skill levels, they hand two points to their opponent; the chance of a break will then exceed 50%, or one in two games. Unforced errors can be very costly. Watching a match to see if unforced errors are a regular occurrence can pinpoint when a break is more likely.

If the receiving player is playing well then it makes sense that they will put the server under pressure. But it's important to note that there are times during the match when this can be more valuable. As the match progresses either player may look for an opportunity to break an opponent. If you served first for the set, as long as you win your service game, you get the chance to put pressure on your opponent.

But the crunch point tends to come towards to end of the set. If you just served at 4-4 to go 5-4 ahead, you now have the chance to get a break and win the set. So putting in a few speculative shots at this point as the receiving player would be a good idea. It is at this point that players are much more likely to push for a break by getting a speculative winner.

The set you are in will make a difference as well. We took Tennis Trader and looked at the profit we could make with a break in an evenly balanced match. In the first set, from an even scoreline, a break would yield a cash out value of £2.55 but in the fifth set £6.80. That's merely a reflection on the importance of a break. If the break occurs early in the match then it can be won back, later in the match and that's less likely.

So next time you are watching a match, why not look to take a break and profit from it!