Future and edge pushing
Cash
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Marcus Bateman /
10 September 2010 /
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There is no need to take many risks against someone who will usually lose relatively risk free over the medium/long term.
As a general rule in poker, you should be modifying quite how hard you push any likely edge you have depending on the skill of your opponent, and understanding why this is true is crucial to maximising your likely returns against different players.
Although no one can see into the exact future, this basic principle is based around the likelihood - and likely size - of future errors depending on player type, and can make a huge difference in deciding what hands you choose to play or throw away.
The core concept can be roughly broken down to this: You should rarely be taking marginal edges against weak players, as they will likely present much greater future bets; but you should frequently take them against good players, who may well not offer many more spots where you have an edge of any kind.
There is no need to take many risks against someone who will usually lose relatively risk free over the medium/long term (if anything it is a huge mistake as it gives them about their only chance at winning). However, against someone who actually has a very good chance of winning later on, any edge at all that you can gather must be taken advantage of.
To illustrate this in more general gambling terms, imagine what the correct strategy is if you encounter a fruit machine that is either:
a) Adjusted wrong and now paying out +105% instead of -95%, with no engineer due for a month.
Or,
b) Adjusted wrong with a pay out of +105%, but with an engineer due in four hours.
Now I am not suggesting you attempt to commit fraud in any gambling venue, but assume for the sake of game theory that it is OK for you to gamble to your hearts content in these scenarios. In a), you simply have to sit back, make small bets, minimise risk, and let time and the machines fault pay you out handsomely.
In b) however, you only have four hours before the machine reverts back to its old self, and to maximise wins here you need to play a very volatile style - placing as large a bets as possible to try and get the best chance of a +5% EV return in the short time you have before it returns to normal. Although not an exact analogy, it illustrates the radical adjustments required when dealing with weak/strong players in terms of how and why you approach risk, and this is a lesson that will maximize your returns against both weak and strong players if followed well.
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