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NRL Betting: Can NRL form be a guide to the Centenary Test?

NRL stars change jerseys ahead of round nine when Australia battle New Zealand in the Centenary Test.

It is asking a lot of the players to back up, but there seemed to be no major dramas when they did the same after the City v Country clash last week.

Form that players have shown so far in the NRL should guide punters seeking a value bet on the match.

Australia are the overwhelming favourites, and so they should be, there is not the slightest reason to back the Kiwis.

The bets that attract the most interest for this SCG clash are surely winning margin or half-time/full-time. That's because the Kangaroos seem almost unbackable favourites, based on team selection, past meetings, recent form - in fact just about everything.

The normal ANZAC test has turned into an annual Kiwi-bashing - it was 30-6 last year, and even more one-sided last October when the Kangaroos won 58-0 in what was a record defeat for New Zealand.

Australia have Brisbane's Darren Lockyer out, which is a bigger blow than one might guess from his patchy form and lack of appearances this season. He is a proven matchwinner who has the respect of his teammates.

His replacement, Cronulla's Greg Bird, does not offer the same ball skills or creativity, but will add some grunt to the defence.

However, the primary role of the Australian backline will be attack, and with it will surely come tries.

The Kiwis backline cannot match the superb skill and pace of the Australians, and there are few positives within the New Zealand camp.

Sonny Bill Williams of the Bulldogs is a match-changer, and will need to operate intelligently in this match. New coach Stephen Kearney has inside knowledge of the Storm players - but it will be another thing stopping them.

Many of the key match-ups look one-sided, particularly the Cowboys' Johnathan Thurston v Thomas Leuluai of Wigan. Thurston has not reached his best this season, playing through injuries, but should still have a big influence on the outcome.

Leuluai and his halves partner, the Bulldogs' Ben Roberts, are not the biggest of men. Bird has already come out in the media and said he and Ryan Hoffman (Storm) will be targeting the pair and trying to run over the top of them.

Cameron Smith, the accomplished professional with the Melbourne Storm, again assumes the captaincy in Lockyer's absence, and his presence should ensure good direction in attack.
It's a new dawn for New Zealand under Kearney, and expect them to go out hard but fail to match Australia, especially in the backs.

Both Roy Asotasi of the Bulldogs and the Eels' Nathan Cayless were asked by the media if they could guarantee this game wouldn't go the same way as last October's hammering. Neither of them gave convincing answers, saying only that this would be a "more competitive" game.

And if those two Kiwis stalwarts can't come out more firmly in their own side's defence, you have to wonder who is going to stick their hand in their pocket to back New Zealand.
Australia by over 12.5 points at 1.57 looks to be the value bet of the day.