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Swiatek benefiting from kind draw
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Rybakina facing a battle in stacked third quarter
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Sabalenka threatened by Keys and Alexandrova
Market moving in favour of Swiatek
While top seed Carlos Alcaraz picked up a tough draw in the men's tournament, the women's top seed, Iga Swiatek, was rather more fortunate. In quarter one, she faces the likes of the injury-doubt Belinda Bencic, the declining Victoria Azarenka plus the inconsistent Cori Gauff. In fact, Gauff's all-American clash with Sofia Kenin is one of the potential highlights of round one.
Consequently, the outright market has reacted to the draw and shortened Swiatek into 4.30100/30 as the clear favourite for the title, in from a pre-draw 5.04/1. The implications of this is the easing of Elena Rybakina 7.26/1 and Aryna Sabalenka 7.613/2 who are vying for second-favourite status.
It's tricky to dispute Swiatek's market status even though her grass pedigree is nowhere near that of clay court or hard court, but there's just little in the way of the Pole before she gets to the latter stages.
With the WTA Tour pretty level on the whole in terms of top 20-30 quality, what has happened in a lot of Slams recently is the draw opens up for someone, and if that does happen again, would provide the world number one with an even easier path to the trophy.
Pegula's price stands out in Q2
In quarter two, there isn't really much for Swiatek to fear either in terms of a possible semi-final opponent. Ludmilla Samsonova is talented but inconsistent, while Caroline Garcia has also had consistency issues. Jessica Pegula and Veronika Kudermetova look the likeliest to come through the bracket, while Donna Vekic, strong on grass, may also be considered a threat.
Interestingly, Kudermetova 36.035/1 has shortened, while Pegula 85.084/1 has drifted in the market, while Vekic 32.031/1 is also picking up a fair bit of market support. This is probably due to recent results, with Pegula being easily beaten by Gauff in Eastbourne (44% of points won in the match, which was a 6-3 6-3 defeat) and Vekic having reached the final in Berlin last weekend.
Kudermetova is a fitness doubt, having retired in Berlin (possibly as a precaution?) so I don't mind a back-to-lay on fourth seed Pegula at all. She has a pretty straightforward path to the fourth round at least, and we should see this price shorten nicely with a lot of decent players beating each other by that stage.
Rybakina favourite in brutal quarter three
Elena Rybakina headlines Q3 but with Ons Jabeur 20.019/1 and Petra Kvitova 14.527/2 also in that quarter, things won't be easy for the 2022 winner. It's hardly surprising to see her drift slightly in the outright market, and I think there's a case to be made that with these rivals in mind, and considering fitness doubts, Rybakina's price looks short.
Jelena Ostapenko 34.033/1 also could be a tough opponent, and the strong-serving duo of Karolina Pliskova and Beatriz Haddad Maia (if fit) could also create a high-variance match. Things are unlikely to be easy for Rybakina at all.
Keys and Alexandrova the main threats to Sabalenka
Finally in the bottom quarter, Aryna Sabalenka is favourite to win the bracket, but could face resistance from Madison Keys, who is into the Eastbourne final today, plus Maria Sakkari and Barbora Krejcikova. After a strong week, Keys has been backed into 40.039/1 from 100.099/1 for the title, and if able to continue her level, could definitely test Sabalenka.
Another player capable of doing so is Ekaterina Alexandrova, who I earmarked as a potential long-shot chance. She's at 70.069/1 right now, and faces Sabalenka potentially in round four if they both make it through to that stage.