The Punter's In-Play Blog: Record-breaking brothers odds-on in New Orleans

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There's just one round to go at the Zurich Classic so Steve Rawlings is back with his final in-running thoughts on this week's golf here...

  • Zurich leaders four clear
  • Hard to envisage anything but a Fitzpatrick celebration

08:05 - April 26, 2026

Following a pre-dawn storm, lift, clean and place was in operation for the third round of the Zurich Classic, and the field took full advantage.

The scoring was extremely low in the four-ball (best ball) format and the pre-event and halfway favourites, Matt and Alex Fitzpatrick, shot an incredible tournament-record 15-under 57 to hit the front.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 08:00.

Matt Fitzpatrick / Alex Fitzpatrick -30 1.331/3
Davis Thompson / Austin Eckroat-26 9.417/2
Alex Smalley / Hayden Springer -26 15.014/1
Doug Ghim / Jeffrey Kang -25 46.045/1
-23 and 80.079/1 bar

It's extremely difficult to envisage the Fitzpatrick brothers letting this one slip now.

Last year's winners. Andrew Novak and Ben Griffin were three clear with 18 holes to play, Jonas Blixt and Can Smith successfully converted a four-stroke lead in the inaugural staging in this pairs format nine years ago, and Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantley had the event all sewn up when they led by five four years ago.

As highlighted yesterday, victory for Alex would be a huge deal and I expect he'll feel the nerves today, but his more experienced brother can keep him calm, and they appear to have a big enough lead to hold the challengers at bay.

Over the last 30 years, 70 players have held a four-stroke lead in an individual 72-hole stroke play event on the PGA Tour and 52 of them went on to win.

It's hard to know how much credence we can give those stats given this is a pairs event but that's an impressive enough strike rate of 74% and odds of 1.331/3 certainly don't look too short.

Having backed the brothers yesterday at 4.57/2, I've layed my stakes back now for a stress-free evening's entertainment but I certainly wouldn't want to be taking them on.


11:50 - April 25, 2026

The first-round leaders of the Zurich Classic, Alex Smalley and Hayden Springer, still lead at the halfway stage but the big movers on Friday were the Fitzpatrick brothers, who shot a seven-under-par 65 in the much tougher foursomes (alternate shot) format.

We're back to the four-ball (best ball) format for the third round today so scoring will be much lower.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:20.

Alex Smalley / Hayden Springer -16 7.613/2
Matt Fitzpatrick / Alex Fitzpatrick -15 4.47/2
Davis Thompson / Austin Eckroat-15 9.28/1
Billy Horschel / Tom Hoge -15 12.011/1
Mac Meissner / Matt McCarty -14 15.529/2
Kristoffer Reitan / Kris Ventura -14 16.531/2
Zach Bauchou / Sam Stevens -14 22.021/1
Eric Cole / Hank Lebioda -14 34.033/1
Doug Ghim / Jeffrey Kang -14 46.045/1
Nick Dunlap / Gordon Sargent -14 48.047/1
-13 and 27.026/1 bar

This is the ninth edition of the Zurich Classic in this pairs format and of the eight previous winners, only the 2018 winners, Billy Horschel and Scott Piercy, have been more than four strokes off the lead and half of the winners have been leading or tied for the lead at this stage.

Here's where the previous eight winners were positioned at the midway point.

2017 - Jonas Blixt and Cameron Smith - tied first
2018 - Billy Horschel and Scott Piercy - 25th, trailing by seven
2019 - Jon Rahm and Ryan Palmer - tied first
2020 - Event Cancelled
2021 - Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith - seventh, trailing by four
2022 - Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay - led by a stroke
2023 - Nick Harding and David Riley - fourth, trailing by two
2024 - Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry - tied first
2025 - Andrew Novak and Ben Griffin - second, trailing by one

The three pairs that have been beaten in a playoff sat 14th, trailing by five, fifth and three back, and 26th and four off the lead at this stage so it's clearly possible to win form off the pace at this stage and with just two strokes separating the top 10 after 36 holes, this could be a tough tournament to call.

English pair fairly priced at halfway

Going off at around 12/113.00, the Fitzpatrick brothers were considered the team to beat before the off and they look very fairly priced at this stage at 7/24.50.

Both came into the event in great form, and my only concern is how big a deal winning would be for the younger sibling, Alex.

A victory would give him a two-year exception on the PGA Tour and given he already resides in the States with his girlfriend, Rachel Kuehn, who he met at Wake Forest University, it would be a life-changing win.

There's a chance the pressure could tell tomorrow when we're back into foursomes (alternate shot) format for round four but for now, they're nicely priced at 4.57/2 and I was happy to get them onside.


Over at the Volvo China Open, the pre-event 50.049/1 chance, Adrian Otaegui, made a huge move in round three, shooting a remarkable nine-under-par 62 to hit the front.

Otaegui's round included a hole out for an eagle two on the par four fourth, chip-ins from off the green, numerous long putts holed, and a couple of brilliant escapes form the rough after poor drives off the tee.

The 36-hole leader, Bernd Wiesberger, played nicely early on, racing to four-under-par after eight holes but it was a bit of a grind after that and he heads into tomorrow's final round trailing by a stroke after he posted a three-under-par 68.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:40.

Adrian Otaegui -16 2.0811/10
Bernd Wiesberger -15 2.982/1
Sean Norris -12 19.537/2
Alejandro Del Rey -1124.023/1
Antoine Rozner -10 50.049/1
Mikael Lindberg -10 50.049/1
Guido Migliozzi -9 200.0199/1
-8 and 400.0399/1 bar

It's hard to envisage one of the front two not winning from here but they're hard to separate.

Otaegui is looking for his sixth DP World Tour title and it's only two years since he won his fifth, in this event at Hidden Grace.

Wiesberger is looking to win for the ninth time on the DP World Tour, but he hasn't won in five years.

Otaegui needs to back up today's super-low round and that's always tough but he's a fair price at odds-against with a stroke advantage bearing in mind that Wiesberger is the more likely to feel the heat given how long it's been since he won.

There's a chance both could struggle now that it looks like a match between them and there are some quality players four, five, six and even seven back so it's not impossible that someone wins from off the pace.

Last year's winner, Ashun Wu, was backed down from 120.0119/1 to 60.059/1 in-between rounds three and four when he trailed by four strokes in a tie for eighth so we know it's possible to come from off the pace at the venue, Enhance Anting Golf Club, which staged the event for the first time 12 months ago and I've chanced a couple at juicy odds.

Outsiders backed from off the pace

Antoine Rozner won the Qatar Masters from three back through 54 holes and he won the Golf In Dubai Championship by two strokes after a 64 on Sunday, having trailed by four.

He a nice price at 50.049/1 and above but the one I like at a massive price is the man that finished second to Otaegui in this event two years ago - Guido Migliozzi.

His back-to-back 66s in round two and three are eye-catching and he won the Open de France in 2022 from five adrift when he shot 62 on Sunday around a much tougher course than this, Le Golf National, the Ryder Cup and 2024 Olympics venue.

Otaegui, and to a certain extent, last year's winner, Wu, have demonstrated that dramatic things can happen here and the Italian looks a really nice price at 200.0199/1.


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