19:00 - June 27, 2026 - Long odds-on Neimann wobbles in Torin
The 36-hole leader, Joakin Niemann, played his first eight holes of round three at the in four-under-par Italian Open today and he looked long odds-on to make at least a birdie at the par five ninth when he found the green in two, but having been matched at as low as 1.21/5 and having led by as many as five, he missed his birdie effort from inside three feet.
Whether the short miss on nine rattled him or not is hard to gauge but he bogeyed his next three holes before going on to post a four-over-par 39 on the back nine, and that was the worst back nine by anyone in the field in round three.
His playing partner, Angel Ayora, who had begun round three two off the lead and two clear of Matt Wallace and Eugenio Chacarra, was again a bit disappointing in-contention, matching Niemann's level-par 71.
Wallace and Chacarra both played nicely but with a burst of three birdies in-a-row from the 15th, it's the Spaniard that's hit the front ahead of tomorrow's early start.
With poor weather in the forecast, there'll be in three-balls tomorrow morning with the final group kicking off at 10:35 (9:35 in the UK).
Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 18:50.
Eugenio Chacarra -17 2.3811/8
Joaquin Neimann -15 3.211/5
Matt Wallace -15 5.95/1
Angel Ayora -13 18.017/1
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen -13 60.059/1
Dylan Fritelli -12 140.0139/1
-11 and 320.0319/1 bar
Having layed Niemann this morning at odds-on, I'm in a strong position heading into round four and I've now added the man alongside him with 18 to play at 5/16.00.
As highlighted in the preview, experienced pros dominated the leaderboards at the two previous editions at the venue, and the 36-year-old Englishman looks fractionally big at 5/16.00.
It's obviously very hard to predict how tomorrow will pan out but I may look to lay Chacarra if he goes odds-on.
Can Chacarra kick on in round four?
The 26-year-old won the KLM Open at the start of the month, having been tied for the lead with a round to go, and he won the Indian Open last year, having led by a stroke with 18 to play, but he traded at as short as 1.162/13 when attempting to defend in India, when he'd led by four with a round to go, and he also finished fourth at the China Open last year after he'd been tied for the lead through 54 holes.
He has a mixed record when leading or co-leading, winning two and losing two, but on all four occasions he's failed to break 70.
Neimann may well bounce back tomorrow but it's been a draining 10 days or so for the Chilean and today's back-nine was quite ugly so he's hard to fancy with confidence.
Ayora, who sits alongside last year's Austrian Open, Nicolai Von Dellingshausen, looks like one to be wary of for now in-the-mix, although it's worth highlighting that he still learning and is only 21, but the value appears to sit with Wallace with 18 to play.
The Englishman is a five-time winner on the DP World Tour and a winner on the PGA Tour (won the Corales Puntacana Championship in 2023) and he looks very fairly priced at 5/16.00.
Back Matt Wallace
12:10 - June 27, 2026 - Scheffler two clear at River Highlands
It's not often we see someone trading at odds-on after two rounds on either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour and I can't recall the last time it happened on both Tours in the same week but that's the case this week.
The 10.519/2 pre-event favourite, Joaquin Niemann, leads the Italian Open by two strokes over Spain's rising star, Angel Ayora, and the 5.79/2 pre-event jolly at the Travelers Championship, Scottie Scheffler, leads by two over Viktor Hovland, after opening the event with rounds of 64 and 60.
Niemann heads into round three trading at 1.758/11 and Scheffler is now a 1.422/5 chance.
On -16 at halfway, Scheffler is two clear of Hovland, who is two clear of Akshay Bhatia and Eric Cole, who Dave Tindall correctly predicted to end round one with the lead at 50/151.00.
Scheffler is obviously the man to beat but I'm happy to take him on modestly at 1.422/5.
He won the Open Championship last year having led by a stroke at halfway and he's won twice when three clear at the midway point but he's also failed to convert on three occasions when he's only led by one at halfway - at the Byron Nelson in 2023, The Sentry in 2024 and the Houston Open last year.
He finished only sixth her last year when defending the title having been tied for the lead after rounds one and two and looking at past results at TPC River Highlands, he may be worth opposing modestly.
In the last 30 years, 20 players have held a clear 36-hole lead and only five of them went on to win.
And eight have led by two or more and only two went on to win so it's clearly not an easy place to make the running.
It's obviously not as simple as that as most of them weren't even close to the player that Scheffler is but it's never easy to back up a low round and we also have to consider that he's coming off a gruelling week at the US Open.
Lay Scottie Scheffler
I suspect he will get the job done but he's simply too short at 1.422/5 and the same can be said of Niemann in Italy.
Both could suffer from mental and physical fatigue over the weekend after a long week at Shinnecock.
Neimann two clear in Italy
Having written the following before the off, I'm kicking myself for not backing the Chilean.
"It's very tempting to back the favourite, Joaquin Niemann, who finished tied for seventh, beaten by five strokes, at last week's US Open, despite dropping seven strokes on one hole in round one!
"After chalking up a nine, thanks mainly to hitting two drives out of bounds on the par four sixth hole, Niemann was penalised a further two strokes for serious misconduct because he threw his club around 50 yards in anger.
"Had he parred that hole instead of making an 11, he'd have finished the week two in front of the winner, Clark.
"That's obviously a far too simplistic way to look at what would have transpired had he not dropped seven strokes on one hole in round one, but the fact remains that he played extremely well, and importantly, he putted really nicely.
"The Chilean is a class act trading at a nice price on the Betfair Exchange ([10/1 at the time) but he often starts slowly and for that reason I'm going to leave him out before the get-go."
He hasn't started slowly!
Like Scheffler, he's very much the man to beat but he too is too short and worth a modest lay at 1.758/11.
Niemann has been playing on the LIV Golf Tour, which up until this year has featured only 54-hole events so he hasn't led a 72-hole event often.
In fact, he's only led a 72-hole event twice - way back in 2019 in his homeland, when he finished third, beaten by by three, and as recently as February on the Asian Tour, where he finished third in India, beaten by eight, having led by two at halfway.
Both men may well kick on and claim the spoils but I'm happy to take them on modestly at the prices.
Lay Joaquin Niemann