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Great putting the key to victory
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Great event for first time winners
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Frontrunners have the edge around the Seaside Course
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What happened last week? Fitzpatrick wins in Dubai for a third time
I thought I might be in for a decent week when my sole pre-event pick in the DP World Tour Championship, Nicolai Hojgaard, led by three at halfway but a disappointing weekend saw him post rounds of 73 and 70 and he ended the week in a tie for 11th.
With eight players separated by a single stroke, it was a really tricky tournament to assess with 18 to play but the well-backed favourite and defending champion, Rory McIlroy, looked set to prevail.
The world number two was matched at as short as 1.341/3 to take the title for a fourth time but after his fifth birdie of the day at the 11th, he played his next five holes in two-over-par.
Ludvig Aberg, Matt Cooper's 66/167.00 each-way fancy Laurie Canter, and Tommy Fleetwood, who had been matched at as short as 2/13.00 as early as Friday, all posted 17-under-par to tie the clubhouse lead. But playing in the penultimate pairing, Matthew Fitzpatrick birdied the last to take them out of the equation.
The pre-event 22.021/1 shot, who had won the event previously in both 2016 and 2020, had hit a high in-running of 90.089/1 but he hit a low of just 1.11/10 as he waited for the final two-ball to finish.
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen and Rory had been tied for the lead with a round to go but with just one hole to play, both men needed an eagle three at the par five 18th to draw alongside Fitzpatrick.
Both men hit the green in two and after the Dane had missed his eagle putt from outside 40 feet, McIlroy rolled his in from 16.
McIlroy had eagled the final hole at the Irish Open in September before going on to beat Joakin Lagergren in extra- time and he was odds-on to repeat the feat in Dubai and to take the title for a fourth time. But it wasn't to be.
McIlroy drove into the water off the tee and Fitzpatrick went on to win with a regulation par five at the first extra hole.
Schenk hangs tough for maiden PGA Tour victory
Over on the PGA Tour, Adam Schenk, who was generally a 140.0139/1 chance before the off, having been matched at as high as 220.0219/1 on Monday, was tied for the lead with Braden Thornberry and trading at 5.49/2 with 18 to play.
The 33-year-old had begun the week sitting at number 134 in the FedEx Cup standings so the pressure to win was intense but his level par 71 in extremely windy conditions was enough to edge out Chandler Phillips by a stroke.
The victory secures Schenk's PGA Tour playing privileges for the next two years and it looks like Philips may keep his card next year too. His solo second has seen him climb from 139th to 92nd with only this week's event remaining to finalize the top 100.
Tournament History
Originally staged at the Seaside Course alone, the RSM Classic, formerly known as the McGladrey Classic, became a two-course tournament 10 years ago, leading to an increased field size.
Competitors will play both the Plantation Course and the Seaside Course in rotation over the first two days, with the Seaside Course being used for both the third and fourth rounds after the cut.
The RSM Classic is the last of seven FedEx Cup Fall Series events so it's the final opportunity for those flirting around the crucial 100 mark in the standings to secure their playing privileges for 2026.
Venue
Sea Island Resort (Seaside), Sea Island, Georgia.
Course Details
Plantation Course
Par 72, 7,060
Stroke index in 2024 - 70.8
Originally designed by Walter Travis in 1926, the Plantation Course was renovated in 1998 by Rees Jones, who described the course as "parkland by the sea", and it was revamped again in 2019 by Love Golf Design.
Following the revamp six years ago, the course is now 153 yards longer, quite a bit tougher, and the par five eighth hole was the only one unchanged from 2018.
Seaside Course
Par 70, 7,005 yards
Stroke index in 2024 - 70.02
Originally made up of two separate nine-hole courses - a 1929 Colt and Alison classic and a Joe Lee 1973 creation called the Marchside Nine, the Seaside Course was created in 1999 when Tom Fazio combined the two.
Positioned right on the southern tip of St. Simons Island this sea-side links style Bermuda grass course is susceptible to very windy conditions and quite different to the parkland style Plantation Course.
If the wind doesn't blow it's a very easy track. Sebastian Munoz opened up the 2021 renewal with a ten-under-par 60 and the 2023 winner, Ludvig Aberg, fired back-to-back 61s over the weekend to win by four!
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 13:30 on Thursday.
Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2024 - Maverick McNealy -16 42.041/1
2023 - Ludvig Aberg -29 14.013/1
2022 - Adam Svensson -19 160.0159/1
2021 - Talor Gooch -22 55.054/1
2020 - Robert Streb -19 (playoff) 1000.0999/1
2019 - Tyler Duncan (playoff) -19 450.0449/1
2018 - Charles Howell III (playoff) -19 70.069/1
2017 - Austin Cook -21 160.0159/1
2016 - Mackenzie Hughes -17 (playoff) 600.0599/1
2015 - Kevin Kisner -22 20.019/1
What Will it Take to Win the RSM Classic?
Aberg's 29-under-par 253 total in 2023 beat the previous tournament record by seven strokes and it also tied the lowest 72-hole total in PGA Tour history, matching the winning score of Justin Thomas at the 2017 Sony Open in Hawaii.
His 18-under-par weekend score set the record for the lowest score over a PGA Tour tournament's final two rounds and his final 54 holes also set a PGA Tour record for lowest score over three consecutive rounds.
It was an incredibly impressive way to win your first PGA Tour title, but the conditions were very kind after the rain on Thursday.
With the course softened and the wind down, the Seaside Course was rendered completely defenceless and it's a renewal that we should probably view as a bit of an anomaly.
The 2018 winner, Charles Howell, ranked 12th for Driving Distance and last year's winner, Maverick McNealy ranked 20th but length off the tee is irrelevant. The 2020 playoff protagonists, Robert Streb and Kevin Kisner, who had both won the title previously, ranked 51st and 52nd for DD, and the 2022 winner, Adam Svensson, also ranked 52nd.
Kisner ranked only 53rd for DD when he won here a decade ago, the 2016 winner, Mackenzie Hughes, was even shorter, ranking only 57th, and the 2017 winner, Austin Cook, was quite close to the tournament average when he ranked 39th. The average DD ranking of the 15 winners to date is 33.6.
Accuracy is ordinarily more important than power from the tee here and Svenson ranked fifth for Driving Accuracy three years ago but last year's winner ranked 37th, the first two home in 2021 ranked tied 52nd for DA and the 2020 winner, Robert Streb, only ranked 36th so it's really not worth getting hung up on the driving metrics. The average Driving Accuracy ranking of the 15 winners to date is 23.06.
And here are the average rankings for all the other key traditional stats for the 15 tournament winners to date.
Greens In Regulation 14.39
Scrambling 13.39
Putting Average 9.67
Putts per Round 12.75
The 2018 winner, Howell, skews the figures somewhat as his stats were far from typical. He gave it a good biff off the tee, found plenty of fairways and ranked number one for Greens In Regulation but his putting was very poor compared with most winners.
Howell pushed the putting averages up considerably given he ranked 70th for Putting Average and 54th for Putts per Round.
The 2015 and 2016 winners, Kisner and Hughes, both ranked number one for PA and both made more birdies than anyone else so it's very often a bit of a putting competition for those that can handle the Bermuda greens.
Is There an Angle In?
The locals fared very well here in the earlier editions, and it used to be a great angle in.
Charles Howell is from Augusta, Georgia, Kisner went to University in Georgia, and he lives in the neighbouring state of South Carolina, the 2013 winner, Chris Kirk, who said he'd played the Seaside Course at least one hundred times previously when he won, and the inaugural winner, Heath Slocum, both live in Georgia.
A number of players that have gone close to winning also have a connection with the area but after the last few editions, it doesn't look like the strong angle in it once was and the problem with looking for the local angle is that you'll find plenty of players that it applies to.
The tournament host, Davis Love III, was instrumental in getting this event up and running and he's also been the driving force behind making Sea Island a place that golf professionals want to live and work so there's always plenty of inhabitants in the field each year.
If you're looking for courses that correlate well with the Seaside Course, you're spoilt for choice but last week's Bermuda Championship, which is played at the par 71 Royal Port GC, is a decent place to start.
The 2023 Bermuda winner, Camilo Villegas, was beaten in a playoff here in 2016, the 2022 Bermuda winner, Seamus Power, finished fifth here after winning there, the 2019 winner in Bermuda, Brendon Todd, led here through three rounds, two weeks after winning there. And the 2020 Bermuda winner, Brian Gay, has finished fourth and third here previously.
There are also three par 70 Bermuda tracks that are well worth checking out...
Waialae Country Club, home of the Sony Open in Hawaii, Colonial Country Club, venue of the Charles Schwab Challenge (Kisner won the Charles Schwab Challenge in 2017 after winning here in 2015 and Kirk doubled up in 2013 and 2015 too), and TPC Southwind, which hosts the FedEx St. Jude but the two I like best are the par 71 Harbour Town Links in neighbouring South Carolina, which has hosted the RBC Heritage since its inception in 1969, and PGA National - home of the Cognizant Classic since 2007.
The first three winners of this tournament all had a top six finish in the RBC Heritage, the 2013 winner, Kirk, won the 2023 Cognizant Classic, and an ever-increasing number of players have performed well in both this event and the Cognizant.
One of the four men to be beaten in the playoff here eight years ago, Camilo Villegas, romped to a five-stroke victory at the Cognizant Classic in 2010 and the surprise 2016 winner here, Mackenzie Hughes, who has form figures here reading 2-MC-2-5 over the last four years, was a huge outsider when finishing second to Sungjae Im in the Cognizant Classic in 2020.
Pre-event 42.041/1 chance, Maverick McNealy had finished sixth and 17th in his two previous outings and having just won on the DP World Tour and played in his first Ryder Cup, Aberg was in fine fettle two years ago.
The Swede went off favourite in 2023, but winners here haven't always been in hot current form. In fact, it's the opposite. Kisner had finished runner-up in the WGC HSBC Champions in his penultimate start in 2015 and Robert Streb had finished 10th in the Shriners Children's Open when he won the title on the first occasion but as you'll see with the list below, most had poor form coming into the event and four of the winners had missed the cut in their penultimate start.
2024 - Maverick McNealy W-6-17
2023 - Ludvig Aberg 2-13-10
2022 - Adam Svensson 59-MC-39
2021 - Talor Gooch 5-11-60
2020 - Robert Streb 21-MC-55
2019 - Tyler Duncan - MC-18-47
2018- Charles Howell III - 5-61-MC
2017 - Austin Cook - 25-20-50
2016 - Mackenzie Hughes - 26-68-MC
2015 - Kevin Kisner - 25-37-2
2014 - Robert Streb - 9-31-10
2013 - Chris Kirk - 24-36-25
2012 - Tommy Gainey - 38-66-MC
2011 - Ben Crane - 51-10-MC
2010 - Heath Slocum - 65-50-45
Is There an Identikit Winner?
Experienced pros bossed the tournament to begin with, but that's all changed recently.
At 29-years-old, McNealy was the sixth winner in-a-row to be aged at 30 or below and he was the fourth winner in-a-row to be getting off the mark on the PGA Tour.
That's a strong trend now given he was the 10th first time winner in the last 13 years and had Patrick Rodgers won the playoff seven years ago instead of Howell, who was 39, 11 of the last 13 winners would have been winning for the first time on the PGA Tour.
Aberg went off favourite two years ago and having finished fourth here in 2014 and runner-up in his previous start, Kisner went off at around the 20/121.00 a decade ago but they're by far the shortest priced winners of the tournament to date.
The majority of winners go off at a triple figure price and four of the five playoff protagonists in 2016 were matched at huge prices. The winner, Hughes, was matched at 600.0599/1 before the off (and again in the playoff! - see below) Villegas was matched at 280.0279/1 before the off, Henrik Norlander was a 450.0449/1 shot and Blayne Barber was backed at 500.0499/1.
Svensson was nicely backed from 200.0199/1 to 160.0159/1 in 2022, the 2019 winner, Tyler Duncan, was a 450.0449/1 chance, and Streb went off at 1000.0999/1 four years ago so this is definitely a tournament in which you can back a few longshots.
Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2024 - Maverick McNealy - tied for the lead 3.55/2
2023 - Ludvig Aberg - led by one stroke 1.9210/11
2022 - Adam Svensson - T3 - trailing by one 14.527/2
2021 - Talor Gooch - led by three 1.875/6
2020 - Robert Streb - led by three 2.447/5
2019 - Tyler Duncan T5 - trailing by four 48.047/1
2018 - Charles Howell III - led by one stroke 3.6553/20
2017 - Austin Cook - led by three 1.84/5
2016 - MacKenzie Hughes - led by one stroke 6.25/1
2015 - Kevin Kisner - led by three 1.674/6
In-Play Tactics
With youth now triumphing over experience, the profile of the winners has changed here of late and so to have the in-running trends.
McNealy was the fourth 54-hole leader or co-leader to win the RSM Classic in the last five years and Adam Svensson trailed by just a stroke after three rounds three years ago.
McNealy sat tied for second after 36 holes last year and seven of the eight winners before him were in front at halfway, so it really has developed into a frontrunner's tournament, but it's still been an event that's produced plenty of drama over the years.
Svensson looked long odds-on to miss the cut after a slow start around the Plantation Course on Friday in 2022 and he was matched at 1000.0999/1 when over par for the tournament after turning for home in one-under-par on Friday, but he got his skates on - on the back-nine, coming home in 30 to climb to tied 43rd at halfway.
He then shot a sensational eight-under-par 62 on Saturday - the best round of the day by two strokes - to move up into a tie for third, before shooting the equal-best round on Sunday (64) to win by two.
Aberg in 2023 and Svensson 12 months earlier, were the only players to trade at odds-on but Luke Clanton was matched at a low of 1.674/6 before he finished tied second last year and we usually see at least one player go odds-on and get beat.
As many as three men (Cameron Champ, Webb Simpson and Patrick Rodgers) went odds-on in 2018 before getting beat and four of the last nine renewals have gone to extra time.
McNealy birdied the 72nd hole last year to win to win by a stroke over three others so tight finishes are the norm and if you enjoy backing an outsider on a Sunday evening that might just put in a charge form off the pace, then this is most definitely the event for you.
I backed Nico Echavarria at 50.049/1 last year when he trailed by four and he was matched at just 3.1511/5. He was one of the three to lose by one and I backed Cameron Tringale with a round to go in 2020 at 160.0159/1 and he was matched at a low of 4.94/1 after being matched at 1000.0999/1 when he parred the first four holes on Sunday.
Although the recent winners have been up with the pace, we've seen winners come from four strokes back, five off the pace (twice), and from seven strokes back with a round to go so an off the pace winner is definitely possible.
Ben Crane came from five shots back to win in 2012 and a year later, Tommy Gainey hit 60 in round four to win by a stroke, having trailed by seven after 54 holes!
Robert Streb began the fourth round trailing by five strokes in 2014 and trading at 110.0109/1 before he went on to win for the first time and 12 months earlier, Tim Clark very nearly did the same thing. He also began round four trading at a triple figure price and five off the lead and he was matched at just 4.03/1 after he'd shot a final round of 62 (one better than Streb and Crane). He would have made a playoff if Chris Kirk hadn't birdied the penultimate hole and we very nearly witnessed another miraculous winner seven years ago too...
Patrick Rodgers was absolutely miles back before getting into the playoff. The pre-event 160.0159/1 chance was matched at 1000.0999/1 when he trailed by 12 at halfway and he was still five back with a round to go after shooting 61 in round three. A 62 on Sunday saw him get into the playoff.
A tight and dramatic finish can be expected but I'll be amazed if we get anything quite as bizarre as the finish to the 2016 tournament which went to a five-man playoff.
As darkness fell, Billy Horschel eliminated himself on Sunday evening with an unbelievably bad putt on the 18th green before the Monday finish saw a simply crazy conclusion.
Incredibly, Hughes won the event at the third extra hole, despite never finding the par three 17th green! All four remaining playoff protagonists missed the green completely and Hughes was somehow matched at 600.0599/1 when his second shot still failed to make the putting surface, but his three rivals all failed to get-up-and-down for par after the Canadian holed out for a three from just off the green.
Solid Smalley can get off the mark
In search of his first PGA Tour title, the 29-year-old North Carolina resident, Alex Smalley, ticks a number of strong trends boxes, although he's in better current form than the majority of winners.
His three-under-par 68 at the Bermuda Championship in blustery conditions on Sunday, which saw him climb 10 places up into a tie for third, was only bettered by Camilo Vilegas on the day, and that wasn't his only high finish of late.
Smalley missed the cut at the Bank of Utah Championship in his penultimate start but prior to that he'd finished fourth in the Baycurrent Classic in Japan.
He has inconsistent course form figures reading MC-5-44-MC but the top five finish in 2022 is a big plus and he ranked as high as fourth for Greens In Regulation and seventh for Putting Average last week in Bermuda.
All things considered, I was more than happy to chance him at 48.047/1.
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