- Links and Qatar form key in Portugal
- Low scoring birdie-fest expected again
- Outsiders and Englishmen fare well
- Value scarce at the top of the market
Tournament History
First staged in 2007, and won by England's Steve Webster, the Portugal Masters is now an established event on the DP World Tour. It's always been staged at the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course (formally known as the Oceânico Victoria) and this will be the 16th renewal. We've seen numerous dramatic finishes but in 15 previous editions, there's never been a playoff.
The Portugal Masters is the last full field DP World Tour event of the season so anyone bobbing around 60th place in the Race to Dubai standings is looking to get into the Nedbank Challenge in two weeks and those positioned at around 120th in the standings are looking to keep their cards for next season.
Venue
Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course, Vilamoura, Portugal.
Course Details
Par 71, 7191 yards
Stroke index in 2021 - 70.73
The Arnold Palmer-designed Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course opened in 2004 and it staged the World Cup of Golf a year later, when Wales just edged out Sweden in a weather-shortened tournament.
An exposed course with water in play on seven holes - it's been the venue for this tournament from day one. The well-bunkered fairways are fairly generous in width and the bentgrass greens are slightly larger than average and undulating. The rough is often minimal and not very punishing but there were a few changes to the track before the 2019 renewal and the course has played slightly tougher over the last three years.
Along with the planting of new trees, a stronger, more resilient strain of Bermuda grass was grown in the rough, as well as to areas around the greens.
Despite the changes, it's still a very straightforward resort course that the pros usually devour, and Italy's Nino Bertasio opened last year's event with a 10-under-par 61.
The 2015 and 2016 winners, Andy Sullivan and Padraig Harrington, amassed 23-under-par winning scores and Alex Levy won in 18-under in 2014 but they only played two rounds.
Martin Kaymer shot 61 in the opening round of the very first staging, Scott Jamieson shot 60 in round three 10 years ago and Nicolas Colsaerts opened the 2015 renewal with a 60 before Levy shot 61 in round two. In 2018 at Vilamoura, we witnessed the DP World Tour's first, and to date only, sub-60 round when Oliver Fisher posted a 59 in round two.
Prior to the 2012 edition the rough was changed to Bermuda and the third hole was changed from a par five to a par four.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days, beginning on Thursday at 13:00
Last Seven Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2021 - Thomas Pieters -19 27.026/1
2020 - George Coetzee -16 17.533/2
2019 - Steven Brown -17 320.0319/1
2018 - Tom Lewis -22 80.079/1
2017 - Lucas Bjerregaard -20 70.069/1
2016 - Padraig Harrington -23 110.0109/1
2015 - Any Sullivan -23 55.054/1
What Will it Take to Win the Portugal Masters?
I'd slightly favour length over accuracy off the tee. Last year's winner, Thomas Pieters, only ranked 24th for Driving Distance but Nicolai Hojgaard in tied second and Matthew Jordan in tied fifth ranked first and second for DD although a lack of length can clearly be overcome.
The 2019 winner, Steven Brown, only ranked 46th for DD and David Lynn won here nine years ago ranking just 67th.
Accuracy off the tee is certainly not essential either. Pieters ranked 15th for Driving Accuracy but four of the next six on the leaderboard ranked in the 50s for DA and the first four home in 2019 ranked tied 30th, tied 30th, 20th and 43rd for D A. The 2018 winner, Tom Lewis, ranked only 69th.
Greens In Regulation hasn't been an essential stat either and in the 15 years we've been coming here, only four winners have ranked inside the top 10 for GIR. Lucas Bjerregaard ranked fourth in 2017, Andy Sullivan ranked fifth in 2015, Lee Westwood ranked second in 2009 and Lewis ranked fourth when he won here for the first time in 2011.
Pieters ranked 13th for GIR last year, Coetzee ranked 32nd in 2020, Brown only 39th in 2019, and Harrington managed to win six years ago ranking just 67th. But the average ranking of the 15 winners is still only 21.8, so good iron play is clearly important. But not as important as scrambling and putting.
The last two winners have only ranked 27th and 13th for Scrambling but Brown ranked number one, Lewis ranked sixth in 2018 and, although the winner Lucas Bjerregaard only ranked 33rd five years ago, five of the six winners before him ranked first or second for that stat.
Matthieu Pavon in tied second was the only man in the field to make more birdies than the winner last year. The 2020 winner, Coetzee, made more birdies than anyone, the two winners before Brown ranked number one for birdies made, and Mikko Korhonen (tied third) was the only player in the field to record more birdies than the winner, Harrington, in 2016.
We can look at the figures all we want but this is basically a birdie-fest and a putting contest.
The front four last year ranked sixth, second, fourth and 10th for Putting Average. Coetzee ranked second when winning in 2020 and before him, Brown, Bjerregaard, Harrington and Alex Levy have all won here in the last eight years ranking first for PA. The last 10 winners in-a-row have all ranked inside the top seven for that stat and Coetzee and Brown also ranked number one for Strokes Gained Putting. Pieters only ranked 11th for that last year but Pavon, in tied second, ranked first.
Is There an Angle In?
Two courses that appear to correlate nicely with this week's venue are the Emirates, home of the Dubai Desert Classic, and Doha, the venue for the Qatar Masters.
There are too many incidents of form crossing over to list but, for example, Coetzee has a fifth and a seventh to his name in Dubai and he's twice finished second at Doha.
Links form stands up really well here too and two Open Champions - Harrington (2016) and Shane Lowry (2012) - have won here in the last decade.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
This is the last opportunity players have to secure their playing privileges (provisionally the top-117 in the standings) for the following season.
Brown certainly made the best of his final opportunity three years ago given he began the week ranked 150th in the Race to Dubai standings and hadn't bettered a round of 68 all season in any event. Unsurprisingly, he was an almost unconsidered 320.0319/1 shot before the off but outsiders have a great record in the event anyway.
Last year's victor Thomas Pieters, Coetzee and Lee Westwood, 13 years ago, are the only well-fancied winners in the event's entire 15-year history.
As many as seven of the last 10 winners have been in the 20s and seven of the 15 winners have been English.
Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2021 - Thomas Pieters - tied for the lead 1.84/5
2020 - George Coetzee - led by one stroke 2.68/5
2019 - Steven Brown - trailing by three 19.537/2
2018 - Tom Lewis - trailing by two 3.953/1
2017 - Lucas Bjerregaard - led by one stroke 4.77/2
2016 - Padraig Harrington - trailing by one 6.05/1
2015 - Andy Sullivan - led by five strokes 1.21/5
In-Play Tactics
If we disregard the misleading curtailed 36-hole event of eight years ago, seven of the other 14 winners were within three of the lead after round one. Although the last two winners trailed by seven and five strokes respectively, Pieters was inside the top-10 after the opening round. Coetzee was tied for fifth but a slow start can be overcome.
Brown sat tied for 35th and six off the lead after an opening 69 three years ago and Lewis came from miles back in 2018 after a pedestrian 72 saw him sit tied for 110th and nine shots adrift.
Sullivan won wire-to-wire in a canter eight years ago and David Lynn is the only other first round leader to claim the trophy but he's one of numerous winners to come from some way off the pace after three rounds.
Having tied for the lead after rounds one and two, Lynn dropped to six off the pace and a tie for 16th after a disappointing 73 in round three but he shot 63 to win by one and the two winners before him had both trailed by four with a round to go and Richard Green had been an incredible seven adrift before going on to win by two strokes in 2010.
If you're betting in-running, the final four holes offer up two good birdie chances and two opportunities to drop a shot or two. The driveable par four 15th and the par five 17th are chances to make birdie or eagle, but the par three 16th isn't straight forward and the finishing hole is really tough - especially off the tee. A par there is always a good score. It was the hardest hole on the course last year, averaging 4.22.
Market Leaders
Robert MacIntyre has ticked over nicely since winning the Italian Open last month, finishing eighth at the Open de France, 20th at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and ninth at Valderrama two weeks ago.
He looks certain to contend given that run of form but on his only previous appearance he finished tied for 64th. He didn't break 70 all week and signed off with a sorry 82 so he has to improve his course form considerably.
With current form figures reading 7-MC-12-7-D-6, Jordan Smith is playing every bit as well as MacIntyre, but his course form reads a fairly ordinary 27-31-36-41. It's more than five years since he won his only DP World Tour title, at the Porsche European Open, courtesy of a bizarre missed putt in regulation play by Alex Levy who was matched in running at 1.011/100.
Smith turns 30 early in November and it's not unusual to see someone play well in and around a significant birthday but he's not for me at less than 20/1.
Nicolai Hojgaard finished runner-up 12 months ago and he played ok last week in Mallorca before his poor form on the greens finally took it's toll. He played his last six holes in four-over-par to finish tied for 16th, having been matched at a low of 5.14/1. He too looks short enough at around 20/1
Selection
Having witnessed all the carnage during round four of the Mallorca Open on Sunday, and having watched Ryan Fox, who sits second on the Race to Dubai standings, throw away the title, I'm once again reluctant to back a number of players before the off.
The DP World Tour is far more unpredictable than the PGA Tour and the market leaders all look short but I'm more than happy to back one of Matt Cooper's each-way fancies, Marcus Kinhult, at a big price given he has so many positives.
As Matt highlights, Kinhult caught the eye last time out when finishing sixth at Valderrama after a slow start. He was fourth here on debut in 2018, his sole title to date (the 2019 British Masters) was won on a links course, and he's twice finished third at Doha - a course that correlates superbly with Dom Pedro Victoria.
That's more than enough to suggest he's a fair price at 95.094/1 but his position in the race to Dubai standings (80th) is another reason to back him. Kinhult needs to get inside the top-60 to get into the Nedbank Challenge in two weeks' time - an event in which he finished second in 2019.
He'll be keen to get to South Africa and avenge his playoff defeat to Tommy Fleetwood so another big week here could be on the cards.
Selection:
Marcus Kinhult @ 95.094/1
I'll be back later with my Bermuda Championship preview.
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