Greyhound Derby Final Betting: Closest final in years makes finding a winner harder than ever

Derby Betting / Darrell Williams / 27 May 2008 / Leave a Comment

Darrell Williams leads you through the six runners in the biggest event in greyhound racing

You would think after five rounds we'd all have a good idea about who is going to be crowned Derby champion - but not this year. In fact as things stand, this is set to be the most open Derby final EVER. Until now no favourite has started bigger than [3.25] - and the last of those was Moral Standards who justified the odds in 1994.

None of this year's finalists have won more than three rounds, while Lenson Express bids to repeat Westmead Lord's feat by not winning until the race that really matters.

For those without an ante-post interest in the final there's a strong argument for saying, just enjoy it this is too tough to solve. Find yourself a nice BAGS race instead! But hey, this is the Derby. You have to have an opinion; fence sitting is not an option!

I'm still clinging to an ante-post ticket on Loyal Honcho, recommended here at around 48.0 just before the first round, while I also suggested Tyrur Kieran as part of my seven strong long range portfolio, so here's hoping you followed me in.

In reality I'd love to see Loyal Honcho win, and not just for my own financial interests. Surely no one can deserve it more than Seamus Graham, who will be fielding an amazing fifth finalist in four years, which also includes another dual finalist in Mineola Farloe in 2005/6. Last year's runner-up would be only the second dog after 1933 winner Future Cutlet to win the race having previously finished second.

Given that Graham was reluctant even to travel over initially, Honcho's form, certainly judged on his semi-final win suggests he is not far off his best. The draw in trap four has to be seen as a positive - certainly if he breaks like he did in the semi-final. While others will bid to employ similar tactics, there has to be a chance that the three inside runners could come together early on.

Kryptonite has the dreaded one box, which year after year we're reminded has never won a Derby at Wimbledon, and that sequence stretches back to 1985! But even more worrying is that the last two red jacketed Derby winners were in 1982 and prior to that 1967, so it didn't do that well at White City either! It surely must be down to more than just coincidence, and while no one can get them to trap in a big final like Charlie Lister, who incidentally will equal Les Reynolds' all time record of five Derby wins if he's successful, trap one is hardly ideal for Kryptonite anyway, who will surely want to move off. With trap two runner Lenson Express also trapping far better in the previous two rounds, that could spell disaster, especially as Tony Collett's runner has shown a tendency to edge inwards.

I also have my concerns about where Tyrur Kieran might go on the run up, and while connections insist he will stay straight, I'm not sure. Of course, the white jacket could be just what the Scottish Derby champion requires, but I still fear he will edge inwards, and so become involved in a tangle of some description with the dogs on his inside.

I actually rate Paul Hennessy's other runner Tyrur Laurel a more serious player. Unbeaten since shedding his wide tag before the third round, he has put up an improved performance in each of those three races, suggesting he is peaking at just the right time. While he was surprisingly eliminated in the Scottish Derby semi-finals, that is a rare blip on his otherwise excellent record, and the only time he has finished out of the first two in over 30 starts. Expected to stay wide, which is also likely to help Loyal Honcho, 'Laurel' has all the attributes required to run a big race. That's assuming Blonde Dino in trap six doesn't get another ping, like he did in the third round. While John Mullins' runner should not be under-estimated, unless he does get a flyer, it's hard to believe he can get past Tyrur Laurel or Loyal Honcho if he's led.

In a race which truly does possess the potential for any number of possible outcomes, I rate the most likely winner as either Loyal Honcho or Tyrur Laurel, with just a slight preference for the Paul Hennessy runner. But as I said at the beginning, there's unlikely to have ever been a more competitive Derby final, which makes it just so exciting!