X-Factor / Jack Houghton / 10 December 2011 / 1

During The X Factor last year, betting.betfair tipster Jack Houghton turned a starting bank of £1,000 into a whopping £1,900. Two years previously he returned a 17-point profit to anyone following his recommended bets. A brace of profitable years in hand, get involved as he goes for number three.

Well, it's here. Just as the Hindus celebrate their Kumbh Mela, and the Muslims rejoice their Hajj, and the Jews exult their Yom Kippur, and the Buddhists proclaim their Vesākha, and the Christians make whoopee at their Christmas, and the Rastafari eulogise their Grounation Day, we special bets' bettors revel in the glory of the most religious of religious festivals: Reality Television Month.

This year, as every year, stretching back into the annals of the last decade, the I'm A Celebrity final has made way for the X Factor final, which will make way for the Strictly final, which will make way for SPOTY, which will make way for the ante-festival of Novelty Day, when we turn our attention to snowflakes and viewing figures.

And, as always, betting.betfair is here to guide you through your holy observances. Dudders reckons Chelsee could upset those who have punted the favourite Harry; Bossers thinks Northern Ireland could be in for a White Christmas; the Editors (as in the people who run this site, not the band) feel Sepp Blatter will struggle for SPOTY glory this year. But the one we all want to get right, the one that matters, is the X Factor final, and it is here where we can offer you no clear guidance.

In a debate that has split betting.betfair contributors in much the same way that the ordination of women has split the Anglican Church, we can't decide which way this one will go: Mike Norman wants Little Mix to win; the contrary one says they can't; and Pollak - quoting Shakespeare - reckons their price is too short.

Who to believe? Well, never one to brag, it nonetheless seems that, once again, it is I, the prophet of profits, who has guided you best - so why not stick with me until deliverance? In August I set down Six Golden Rules for X Factor betting and, reading them back now, it's incredible how prescient they were. Most notable was my advice to ignore those positing the theory that a group could not win the X Factor. What Little Mix ([2.36]) have shown, as slight favourites in the Winner market, is that a group is more than capable of carrying off the title. Unfortunately, they were not the group I chose to support at the start.

Instead, it is Marcus ([3.1]) and Amelia ([3.9]) who carry our hopes into this weekend's final. Having advised both acts as much bigger prices earlier in the show, I could comfortably trade out of those positions and guarantee a small profit on this year's competition overall; but, as things stand, I'm happy to stick with another of those Golden Rules and retain my support for the most likeable and talented. Little Mix are certainly likeable, but on the talent front they are a long way adrift of the two solo candidates.

And it's in the final that this talent-gap will become most apparent. Asked to perform at least three songs - one with their mentor, Tulisa - I can't help feeling that Little Mix will be revealed for what they are: a nice bunch of girls who sound okay when performing up-tempo songs supported by heavily-produced backing tracks. If they try to show diversity, they will only highlight their limitations, which is why [2.36] looks short.

Amelia Lily, on the other hand, should thrive. Out of the three finalists she has the biggest range, and has the voice to fill Wembley Arena, which debuts as the final venue this year. The fix rumours that have surrounded her participation shouldn't do her too much damage, and her mentor, Kelly Rowlands, is likely more popular than Tulisa, which will bring her some votes in the duet.

But it is on this front that Marcus Collins holds the trump-card. When he gets on stage with Gary Barlow and smashes-out Never Forget or Greatest Day with, who knows, perhaps even a cameo appearance from the rest of Take That, the phone lines will light up with support. Which is why, at [3.1], Collins looks the best value this weekend.

I won't be going in again - for obvious reasons - but wish you luck with your punting on this, and the rest of the festival that remains. May the great-god Cowell protect you.

This week's recommendations:
No bet.

Previously recommended:
3pts Lay Misha Bryan at [1.81] in Top 3 market - WON.
1pt Back Misha/Rhythmix at [15.0] in Bottom Two Combo market - LOST.
1pt Back Misha/Janet at [5.3] in Bottom Two Combo market - WON.
1pt Back Janet/Rhythmix at [32.0] in Bottom Two Combo market - LOST.
5pts Lay Craig Colton at [7.4] in Winner market - WON.
1pt Back Misha/Rhythmix at [4.0] in Bottom Two Combo market - LOST.
1pt Back Misha/Janet at [7.0] in Bottom Two Combo market - LOST.
1pt Back Janet/Rhythmix at [18.0] in Bottom Two Combo market - LOST.
2pts Back Kitty Brucknell at [2.26] in 10th Elimination market - WON.
2pts Back James Michael at [28.0] in Winner market - LOST.
5pts Back The Risk at [1.5] in Groups market - LOST.
5pts Back Johnny Robinson at [1.5] in Over 25s market - LOST.
3pts Back Kitty Brucknell at [1.5] in Bottom Three market - WON.
1pt Back Misha Bryan at [3.7] in Bottom Three market - LOST.
1pt Back Janet Devlin at [7.4] in Bottom Three market - UNMATCHED.
3pts Back Frankie Cocozza at [1.74] in Bottom Two market - LOST.
1pt Back Frankie Cocozza at [3.8] in Bottom Two market - LOST.
2pts Back Nu Vibe at [2.32] in Bottom Two market - WON.
2pts Back The Risk at [22.0] in Winner market - LOST.
2pts Back Craig Colton at [17.0] in Winner market - LOST.
1pt Back Marcus Collins at [17.5] in Winner market - OPEN.
3pts Back Amelia Lily at [5.8] in Winner market - OPEN.
4pts Back Marcus Collins at [4.2] in Winner market - OPEN.
3pts Back Amelia Lily at [4.5] in Winner market - OPEN.
3pts Back Marcus Collins at [4.2] in Winner market - OPEN.

Settled bets:
26pts staked and lost; 18.96pts won; -7.04pts overall.

Star Predictor

You've read Jack's thoughts, but what does the Betfair market say? For the latest odds on the winner market and the next elimination, check out our X-Factor Star Predictor...

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1. Kieran | 13 December 2011

   So, what was your overall points loss?

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