X-Factor / Jack Houghton / 25 August 2011 /

During X Factor last year, betting.betfair tipster Jack Houghton turned a starting bank of £1,000 into a whopping £1,900. Two years previously he returned a 17-point profit to anyone following his recommended bets. Before the betting action starts this year, we asked him to share his Six Golden Rules of X Factor Punting.

Rule 1: Ignore Demographic Theories
Around the time we were all partying like it was 1999 (because it was), and were all worrying that the Y2K bug would end the world as we knew it (which it wouldn't), public-vote reality television became mainstream (where it stayed). From the moment we started watching (and betting on) Big Brother and its ilk, people started pontificating about the "type" of person who could win these shows, based on the "type" of person who voted.

And the pontificators have gone wild with X Factor. Female contestants fared poorly in early X Factor series, leading some to assert that females were always a bad bet. This seemed to ignore the successes of Girls Aloud and Michelle McManus in X Factor forerunners and, sure enough, along came Leona Lewis and Alexandra Burke to torpedo the theory.

These two ended another reality show myth: that you had to be white to win. The voting public, it was presumed, was institutionally racist, as well as being sexist. These theories, based on ridiculously small data sets, and which seemed to ignore the voting public's seeming acceptance of gay contestants (racist, sexist, but not homophobic?) , were, in due course, proved to be nonsense.

Yet every year these half-baked, pseudo-statistical myths reappear. Any bets on how long it will be until we are advised to avoid the Groups, a category that is yet to provide the winner of X Factor? Not long, I imagine (they do okay, by the way, with five having made the final, and two finishing second overall). And any bets on how many times we'll read about the contestant most likely to appeal to teenage girls, as if they are the only demographic group that votes, and as if all teenage girls share the same opinion?

Here's an X Factor theory for you. On the whole, talented, likeable and mainstream contestants do better than less-talented, less-likeable and less-mainstream ones.

Rule 2: Be Flexible
In 2008 I squandered a profitable position by doggedly sticking to my long-held belief that Alexandra Burke was not a good enough singer to win the show. What I failed to accept was that although she was ropey to begin with, she improved immeasurably. Conversely, contestants who are assured and polished in the early shows - like Eoghan Quigg - often have little else to give. Always be willing to reassess your portfolio.

Rule 3: Beware the Freaks
Keep an eye out for contestants who are quirky and interesting. Although initially novel, getting lots of attention as something "new" and "current", it usually doesn't take long for the audience to want them to get a regular haircut, stop messing around with the songs they are singing, and cease the various facial and bodily contortions that make them so abnormal. These types of contestants are over-bet early on, but soon crash and burn (think Diana Vickers and Aiden Grimshaw).

Rule 4: Watch the Live Shows
Performances matter. Whilst it's quite natural to have a pecking order in your head of who is the most likely to be eliminated each week, a good performance can easily see a weak singer survive another show. So don't commit too early. A seeming certainty for elimination in week seven last year, Katie Waissel's rendition of Help! kept her in. Conversely, a weak performance by a more fancied contestant can see them up for elimination, as Cher Lloyd found with her version of Imagine in the same show.

Whilst on this rule, it's worth noting one X Factor theory that has some statistical rigour to it. For whatever reason, contestants who sing first and second have a significantly increased chance of facing elimination.

Rule 5: Expect the Unexpected
New mentors; arbitrary eliminations; no eliminations; contestant illness; voting irregularities; contestant reinstatement; facebook campaigns; public-vote cancellations... just a small selection of the random events that have scuppered bets of mine in reality shows over the years. If a bet of yours relies too heavily on the X Factor format remaining constant, it's probably a bad bet. Let's say you punt an outsider in the outright market, believing they will survive a few more weeks, allowing you to trade out of your position for a profit at a later date. Then the show arbitrarily decides to eliminate four contestants in one week. They've been screwed, and so have you, but then you should have known better: it's a reality television show, after all.

Rule 6: Take Your Time
The most important thing is not to get involved too heavily, too early. I tend to have only a few, small bets before the first live show, building up bigger positions as the series progresses.

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