X-Factor / Eliot Pollak / 08 December 2011 /

The nation's favourite reality shows have been impossible to predict this year and Tulisa's merry band of 16-year-olds are no sure thing to win Sunday's final, says Eliot Pollak

It was a Shakespearean ghost who summed it all up best:

"If you can look into the seeds of time,
And say which grain will grow, and which will not,
Speak."
(MacBeth i,iii)

And whilst it is the ghost of Simon Cowell that has haunted the X Factor of 2011, perhaps eager punters should first heed the words of Banquo's ghost, penned by the Bard in the early 17th Century, and never more relevant than when punting on reality television. If last night's match in Basle was the scene of 2011's hilarity betting upset, the entire year has been one enormous reality upset for bettors.

The horrendous Essex sex-machine Mark Wright (not that one, Derby fans) was pegged to win I'm a Celebrity, but he lost out to the fourth most appealing member of Busted tribute act McFly. It was all lined up for Jedward to preen their way to victory in Celebrity Big Brother, only for a car-park gypsy slugger to register the most surprising win of his life. And then Aaron won real Big Brother, bizarrely emerging from the house to a chorus of boos - the crowd obviously being composed of punters ruing the day that Geordie shoo-in Alex ever entered their screens. (To comprehend the level of these upsets, it is worth pointing out that in two of the three cases cited, the favourite didn't even come second.)

The truth is we shouldn't be so surprised. Talent competitions have a rich history of giantkillings. Even in the early, oh-so-innocent days of Pop Idol, runner-up Gareth Gates was nailed on to trounce public schoolboy Will Young. He ended up merely being nailed by Jordan.

Even without this glittering precedent, calling this year's X Factor is very tough indeed. It's been an unusual series, peppered with bad ratings, cocaine binges, group members being alternated and even a returning contestant. The only stable part of this sinking ship has been the ongoing presence of Louis Walsh - a man without a contestant for the last few weeks - basically an audience member with a better seat.

So the wise gambler should stay well clear of hot favourite Rhythmix [2.16] who could also fall foul of the 'groups never win' rule - even when they are as popular as JLS or One Direction. In addition, after eight series, there have only been two female winners - Leona Lewis and Alexandra Burke. It all, once more, points towards an upset.

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