The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 13 March 2011 /

It's already a good week for Steve as Troy goes clear in Puerto Rico, but can Dustin hang on in Florida....

08.30- March 13, 2011

Forget the betting for a moment; what we have at the Cadillac now is a real humdinger of a tournament. On a congested, talent filled leaderboard Dustin Johnson leads by two from three players, with four more a further shot back and It's going to be a really exciting finale tonight, with twists and turns aplenty.

Back to the betting and I'm not in a bad position, though it could have, and should have, been very much better. As play drew to a close I thought I was going to have both Johnson and Nick Watney a couple clear but Watney's finish was dire. He missed a seven foot birdie chance on 16 and an even shorter one on 17 before dunking his tee-shot on 18 into the water, leading to a double-bogey. He's still just two behind Dustin but it was a very disappointing finish.

As the last few players finished up I added Adam Scott to the portfolio at [29.0] and I think I'll leave it at that. I may tinker further towards the end of the event but as it sits now I really couldn't advocate backing anyone - though Scott, just three shots off the lead, still looks a little big to me. It's a really tough one to call and I could give a fair chance to any one of the top-ten, even Hunter Mahan now that he's out of the lead.

Although there's still a round to go at both events, a healthy profit for the week is already in the bag regardless of results. Troy Matteson, backed at [120.0], has pulled three clear in Puerto Rico and although I haven't layed anything back yet, I will before the off. If I have to lay at [1.6] or more I will, as I just don't need the hassle and the disappointment of a poor final round from Troy but I fancy he really should convert and his current price is a little on the large side. I've got a lay in at [1.55] for starters but even that looks a bit big.

I'll be back tomorrow with my Tournament De-Brief.

10.00- March 12, 2011

With play resuming in Florida at 1.30pm and not finishing until getting on for midnight UK time yesterday was a long and tiring day. Right from the outset I'd set myself up to look at backing the first round leader so it was sods law that the first round leader was someone I just couldn't back from the front. Hunter Mahan is far more effective coming from off the pace but for most of yesterday I thought I might have made a mistake snubbing him. It wasn't until the final six holes of round two that he started to look flaky.

I made a number of bets yesterday, trying to oppose Mahan, who I still expect to fold. First up was Nick Watney, who I backed at [16.0] as he finished up round one. Then I took [85.0] about Charley Hoffman before round two started. The Hoff was two off the lead at the time and the price looked big. It wasn't. And then as play drew to a close, I got Dustin Johnson onside at [20.0] and Aaron Baddeley at [65.0]. Baddeley's spectacular second round 66 was by two strokes the best round of the day and if he can repeat that today followers of Paul's Find Me A 100 column may well reap reward.

Apart from Hoffman, who imploded completely, the players I've backed in-running are all trading shorter now, but I can't say I'm overly confident of collecting. Mahan still leads but looks vulnerable, and vulnerable to Martin Kaymer, who trails him by just one stroke, as does Francesco Molinari. I don't regret not getting the German onside though, he played ok yesterday but was far from impressive and he hasn't looked a great price all week.

Despite my two pre-event bets disappointing, I'm happy enough with my position at this stage. Kaymer apart, the leaderboard looks a bit shaky and it's an event that looks very hard to call and if I call it wrong so be it.

I may not be in a great position in Florida but things are going well at the Puerto Rico Open. My big fancy for the event, Jerry Kelly, played poorly on Thursday and yesterday withdrew halfway through his second round, citing a back injury but that's where the bad news ends.

Two of my bets now head the market, albeit only just! Troy Matteson, who's now favourite, is tied for the lead with Chris Tidland and James Driscoll and last minute pick, Stephen Ames, is just a shot back.

Sod the WGC event; I'll be spending the evening monitoring proceedings in the Caribbean!

11.10- March 11, 2011

So much for benign conditions this week in Florida. Play had barely started yesterday when an almost three hour delay was needed, thanks to a fairly vicious storm.

Once the weather front had moved on, the course was left pretty defenceless and scoring was low before play was suspended due to darkness. Few players had completed round one and play will resume at 8.30am local time - 13:30pm UK time.

Before play had started my main fancy, Bubba Watson, withdrew feeling unwell. Although that was obviously disappointing as he was an absolute certainty (tongue firmly in-cheek), at least he didn't tee-off and then decide he wasn't fit to play.

That left just two picks - Zach Johnson, who already looks out of it, and Phil Mickelson, who, like Bubba, also had health issues. Apparently, he hadn't been feeling well for a day or two but when he opened up with two birdies in his first three holes, all seemed fine. Playing alongside Tiger Woods and Graeme McDowell, he struggled after that and with three holes left to play of round one, he leads the poor performing three-ball by one but trails overnight leader, Hunter Mahan, who still has seven holes to play, by five strokes.

As I highlighted in my preview, given that front-runners have such a great record here, the plan was to have a detailed look after round one but that's not going to be so easy now. With Mahan a couple clear of a group of players on five under, and with so much of round one to play in ideal conditions, he should be worth backing at [9.8]. However, if I made a list of players who I wouldn't fancy to lead an event from start to finish, Mahan would be somewhere near the top. In fact, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if he treads water when play resumes and fails to lead after round one.

I'm really tempted by Nick Watney at [14.0] in the group in second place. But I'm going to hang on for now. With so many holes to play today much can happen and I can see one or two players getting hot and maybe opening up a gap. My plan is to monitor the scoring this afternoon and try to get aboard any who start to go clear. It won't be easy.

I was quite confident of a really good showing from Jerry Kelly in Puerto Rico but, as they say in racing, he's clearly bounced. After finishing third last week in the demanding conditions at the Honda Classic, he's very much a different player. In a much weaker event and at a far easier course (that looked right up his street), Kelly has flopped big time, shooting three over.

Rory Sabbatini and Y E Yang (first and second at the Honda) have also struggled badly in Florida. At the risk of making an excuse for a poor pick, it seems last week's main protagonists have all struggled.

It wasn't all bad news though, Troy Matteson shot five under par and trails early pace-setter James Driscoll by four. Driscoll threatened the magic 59 for a while but disappointingly finished with two bogeys in his last three holes.

After my preview, but before play began, I also backed Stephen Ames at [55.0], who had been a poor pick last week. I didn't mention him when I wrote my preview because I didn't think I'd get matched at the price and I wasn't prepared to back him any shorter. He shot three under par yesterday and has plenty to do today. And on one over par, my only other pick, Brett Wetterich, looks doomed.

Pre-Event Picks

WGC-Cadillac Championship
Phil Mickelson @ [20.0]
Zach Johnson @ [200.0]
Bubba Watson @ an average of [55.0] - stakes refunded, withdrawn before the off

In-Running Bets
Nick Watney @ [16.0] - during round one
Charley Hoffman @ [85.0] - after round one
Dustin Johnson @ [20.0] - during round two
Aaron Baddeley @ [65.0] - during round two
Adam Scott @ [29.0] - after round three

Puerto Rico Open
Jerry Kelly @ [17.0]
Stephen Ames @ [55.0] - Backed before the off but post preview
Brett Wetterich @ [65.0]
Troy Matteson @ [120.0]

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