The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 08 March 2011 /

What's it going to take to win this week? Our man's had a good look at past results, stats, and current form and he fancies Bubba Watson to boss the very best and Jerry Kelly to tame the rest...

Hot on the heels of the recent WGC-Match Play event, a small but stellar field of just 69, which includes the world's top 50 players, pitches up in Miami for the second World Golf Championship event of the year - the WGC Cadillac Championship.

Formally the CA Championship, and prior to that the American Express, this event used to be nomadic. TPC Blue Monster Doral is now its permanent base though and this will be the fifth year running that it's been staged here and there's plenty of course form to evaluate before that too because Doral also played host to the Ford Championship up until 2006.

The water's still there, so it's still quite blue, but it's not so much of a monster any more. Technological advances in equipment have negated its length somewhat and the 2005 hurricanes destroyed thousands of trees around the course so there's little to penalise errant play now.

There are a few key stats here, starting with Greens In Regulation (GIR). Since the turn of the century, only 2002 champ Ernie Els and 2009 winner Phil Mickelson have ranked outside the top four for GIR the week they won. Par 5 Performance is a good indicator too. Since 1997 the champions have averaged nine under par and last year's winner, Els again, played the par 5s in 12 under! And although you don't have to be a monstrously big hitter to find success, a distinct lack of length off the tee is definitely a handicap. But we can analyse the stats all we want, probably the best way to find the winner is to just wait until after day one...

Last year's first and second , Ernie Els and Charl Schwartzel, occupied the first two places after round one and the two previous winners, Phil Mickelson and Geoff Ogilvy both led after the first round. It's a real front-runners' track and I'll have a good look after day one. Before that though, I have picked out three for starters.

With benign conditions forecast this week, Phil Mickelson looks slightly over-priced at [20.0]. The wind didn't get up two years ago when he made all to beat Nick Watney, despite suffering from heat exhaustion and dehydration. I concede he hasn't played great in a while but it would be no surprise to me to see him bounce back here.

My second pick has won two events in the last 10 months, lost the last major championship in a play-off, tops both the Driving Distance and GIR stats this season, is ranked 14th for Par 5 Performance and comes here fresh off a last four finish at the WGC - Match Play, so why on earth has Bubba Watson been matched at as high as [60.0]? He ticks lots of boxes and I was more than happy with [50.0], so I had to go in again at [55.0], and I simply can't believe I've been able to back him at [60.0]! He looks ridiculously big this week and I've backed him accordingly.

And finally, Zach Johnson has a fair record here and was just too big at [200.0].

Selections:

Phil Mickelson @ [20.0]
Bubba Watson @ an average of [55.0]
Zach Johnson @ [200.0]

With three almost unfathomable winners so far, I can't say I was overly enthusiastic about sifting through the formbook at this week's other event - the relatively new Puerto Rico Open, and I certainly didn't expect to find such a confident selection.

Having analysed the first three year's results, the key stats here are Scrambling, Par 4 Performance, and Putts Per Round, and an ability to play in the wind is an essential prerequisite.

Jerry Kelly, last week's third at the Honda Classic, is currently ranked 6th for Scrambling, tied 20th for Par 4 Performance, tied 11th for Putts Per Round and, as he showed again last week, is an exceptionally good wind player. Nobody else in the field fits the bill anywhere near as well as Kelly does and he also has two top-10 finishes to his name from his two previous visits here, when his putting wasn't in the same league as it is now.

After spending time with his good friend Steve Stricker on his putting his stats have improved no end and now that he has a nice early tee-time on day one, the only negatives I can see are his often flaky in-contention play and the obvious risk of a bounce after last week. Other than those niggles he rates a very solid pick indeed.

I've also backed a couple of big-priced outsiders in Brett Wetterich and Troy Matteson.

Selections:

Jerry Kelly @ [17.0]
Brett Wetterich @ [65.0]
Troy Matteson @ [120.0]

I'll be back on Friday morning with my Live Golf Blog.

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