The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 05 September 2011 / 2

Bubba still leads in Boston but it's tight to say the least! Read the Punter's final assessment of this week's FedEx Cup playoff action here...

09.20 - September 5, 2011

With a round to go in Boston, the Deutsche Bank Championship looks almost as hard now as it did at the start! The leading bunch of five at halfway had a chance to put daylight between themselves and the field but none of them broke 70.

My man, Bubba Watson, briefly held a three-shot lead and was matched at a low of just [2.56] but he then bogeyed three of his next five holes. He still leads but only by one over six players and he looks very vulnerable.

He'll be playing alongside another of my pre-event picks, Jason Day, who played well yesterday but missed a lot of short putts. Ironically he drained a couple of bombs on the last two holes to restore some respectability.

Another of my initial selections, Webb Simpson, is on -9, two behind Bubba, but he's one of five on that score. It's tight to say the least!

Dan Geraghty is an equally good position; all his three are up there too. Like me he picked out Day and he also tipped up Luke Donald and Gary Woodland who are both on -9.

I'd written yesterday that I was going to be watching Nick Watney closely and when he birdied the 1st hole last night I took the plunge and got him onside at [6.6]. It looked a good move when he eagled the 2nd hole but he completely lost the plot after that - his long game went to pieces and he ended the day on -8. I've topped up this morning at [32.0]!

I layed some Bubba back at [4.0] so I've managed to back a few players at no extra cost and as play was closing, I backed Dan's man Woodland at [32.0] and I also got Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson onside at big prices. They're both on -7 and possibly too far back but they're more than capable of going very low.

I'm in a fairly strong position but the winner could easily be one of the players I haven't backed so I'll be on the ball tonight, trying to ensure a decent profit. The main one on my mind, that I haven't got already, is Brandt Snedeker, he can go super low and could well bounce back after yesterday's poor display but he's not quite big enough at [44.0].

Obviously, the likes of Adam Scott, Luke Donald and Charl Schwartzel are huge runners but I'm not going to back everyone. We've seen shocks aplenty in the States this year and Chez Reavie and Brendan Steele could just as easily be the dangers to mine.

Whether it's the right thing to do, time will tell, but I'm going to try and hold my nerve early doors and then make any necessary moves late on. Here's hoping I don't have to!

I'll be back tomorrow with my weekly de-brief.

13.45 - September 4, 2011

It's been a very busy morning and Thomas Bjorn's win was great news but I'd have been better served to have stayed in bed and slept off yesterday's beer intake! I'm not complaining for a second, it's always wise to take profits when you can and hindsight's a marvellous thing!

I layed some of my in-running Bjorn wager back at [3.3] and again at [1.17] before the affable Dane crossed the line and I also backed all of the contenders at various points. I layed some of my Martin Kaymer bet back too though, so that was a shrewd move. To cut a long story short, I've traded quite heavily and I'd have been better off if I had done nothing, but I couldn't see a 62 form Bjorn on the horizon (he played the last five in five under!) and the drab back-nine from Kaymer was a big shock too.

Over in Boston, of the top-four players at the halfway point of the Deutsche Bank Championship, three made significant round two moves, as forecast in Harry The Hat's In-Play guide. Fortunately for me, one of them was Bubba Watson, who I'd backed before the off at [70.0]. He's currently an [8.4] chance.

As Harry also points out, up with the pace is the place to be at this stage. In the eight previous stagings, only Steve Stricker won the event from outside of the front-four places at halfway. He had led after day one in 2009 and bounced back superbly following a lacklustre 72 on day two. The other seven winners were all no more than two off the lead at this stage.

Bubba's tied with Charl Schwartzel and Adam Scott on -10 with Brandt Snedeker on -9, and Nick Watney on -8. History suggests that the winner will come from this little group but it would be churlish to dismiss the likes of Rickie Fowler on -7 or even Jason Day or Luke Donald on -6. In fact, there are five players on -7 and seven on 6 and a really good round from any of them will see them in a great position for tomorrow's final assault at the title.

I'd written in the preview that Par 5 Performance was a key stat and that's what's got Bubba to the top. He's played the six par 5's to date in eight under! If he continues to play the long holes that well he'll take an awful lot of stopping.

Scott's the worthy favourite at around [4.9] though, looking at the halfway stats, he doesn't appear to have too many weaknesses. Schwartzel and Snedeker have both putted well so far but Watney hasn't. He's hit more greens in regulation than anyone but he's putted very poorly. I haven't done anything in-running here at all yet but I shall be watching later and I'll be keeping a keen eye on Watney's putting. If he gets hot with the flatstick he could be the one.

I'll be back in the morning to take a look at the state of play with a round to go.

23.40 - September 2, 2011

Just a very quick update and I'll try and return on Sunday!

I appear to have put the kibosh on everyone I've backed in-running so far! Marc Warren shot 29 for his first nine holes today and then missed the cut! And Martin Kaymer dipped to a price of [3.0], when two under par halfway through his round, before playing some very scruffy stuff on the back-nine. He's still only one off the lead but he was a bitter disappointment.

The leaders go out at 10.50 tomorrow morning and it's live on Sky from midday but I won't get to see much as I'm out all day. It might not be a bad thing given how poorly my wagers to date have fared. Watching Kaymer play like me this afternoon really wasn't much fun today!

I'm going to put the spade down for now and wait to see what tomorrow brings - it's an extremely bunched field and devilishly hard to call.

In the States, Jason Day has started well enough and of my four pre-event picks, only Camilo Villegas looks out of it. Given I'm out all day, and probably most of the evening (Carnival Day in the village) the chances are I won't get to see much of this event tomorrow either so I'm going to let things roll here too and take another look on Sunday morning.

10.55 - September 2, 2011

Well I managed to put the mockers on poor Marc Warren. The wait for a 59 continues.

I can't believe that the lead isn't double-figures by now. Rory McIlroy and Martin Kaymer have a really good chance to take a stranglehold on the event this afternoon now and I've plumped for the German.

08.55 - September 2, 2011

Check out Marc Warren's scoring this morning! Playing alongside overnight leader Nick Dougherty, he's seven under par through eight holes and has had just 24 strokes so far. Could we see the European Tour's first ever 59 this morning? I've thrown a few pounds his way at [230.0].

In contrast, Darren Clarke is two over for the day, so that's one in-running play gone astray!

08.20 - September 2, 2011

Although it's very early days in Switzerland, and they haven't even started in Boston, I thought I'd kick the blog off because I've already had three in-play bets.

Whether it will come to anything is yet to be seen but I put some (blind!) faith in the hapless Nick Dougherty yesterday. When I looked at the leaderboard, just after lunch, it showed him at -5 through nine holes. As it transpired, the leaderboard was wrong (not an unusual occurrence) and he was only on -4 at the time but it mattered not. He carved out a magnificent 63 and led the field by two after day one.

He's out there now and is currently level for the day through five holes but somewhat worryingly he has made his first bogey of the week now. Nick has been in woeful form and has missed an incredible 21 straight cuts but he had been showing signs of a recovery over recent weeks and I just wonder if Oli Fisher's win from nowhere in the Czech Republic has inspired him.

My other two plays are Open champ Darren Clarke and last week's winner Thomas Bjorn. Both looked very generously priced to me at [65.0] and [75.0] respectfully. Dazzler opened up with a 67 and Thomas a 68.

The early move so far is coming from Gary Boyd. He's just eagled the first to draw alongside Dougherty but the men to beat are surely Martin Kaymer and Rory McIlroy, who both opened up with 65's. They tee-off in round two this afternoon.

Omega European Masters Pre-event picks

Miguel Angel Jimenez @ [40.0]
George Coetzee @ [50.0]
Thorbjorn Olesen @ [120.0]
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ [170.0]
Brett Rumford @ [180.0]
Pablo Martin @ [260.0]
Alejandro Canizares @ [300.0]
Ricardo Gonzalez @ [310.0]

In-Play bets

Nick Dougherty @ [100.0] - during round one
Darren Clarke @ [65.0] - after round one
Thomas Bjorn @ [75.0] - after round one
Marc Warren @ [230.0] - during round two
Martin Kaymer at an average of [5.3] - after round one

Deutsche Bank Championship Pre-event picks

Jason Day @ [26.0]
Webb Simpson @ [40.0]
Camilo Villegas @ [65.0]
Bubba Watson @ [70.0]

In-Play bets

Bubba Watson - Layed @ [4.0]
Nick Watney @ [6.6] during round three, and @ [32.0] after round three
Gary Woodland @ [32.0] after round three
Dustin Johnson @ [60.0] after round three
Phil Mickelson @ [70] after round three

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1. gazza | 04 September 2011

   Well done on your in-play winner Punter but can you tell me how many of your original picks win as it seems non of them do and you have better fortunes betting in-play. If this is right then would you be better betting in-play other than before the tourny starts.

2. Steven Rawlings | 05 September 2011

   Hi Gazza,

   Thanks for the feedback, it’s always appreciated and you’ve asked a very relevant question.

   It seems like an eternity since my last pre-event winner - Ian Poulter at the Volvo Match Play, so I can certainly see where you’re coming from!

   I do keep meticulous records though and each year I analyse my results and one of the first things I check is whether it’s still worth doing pre-event bets. Surprisingly, given my recent run, it has been every year since I began my records in 2004.

   It’s been a fairly lean year so far in 2011 though, with only the following five winners before the off -

   Louis Oosthuizen at the Africa Open
   Alvaro Quiros at the Dubai Desert Classic
   Luke Donald at the Accenture World Match Play
   Bubba Watson at the Zurich Classic
   Ian Poulter at the Volvo Match Play

   And I’ve also had picks that haven’t won but I’ve still profited from them because I’ve traded them back - George Coetzee, only last week for example.

   I will again check all my figures come Christmas and I may decide to change tact in 2012, but I’ve a feeling I may not. Take this week for example. Bubba Watson, Jason Day and Webb Simpson may all fail to win but because they’re bang there I’ve some great positions to build a book around. I may end up lumping on Chez Reavie or Jim Furyk at [3.0] with two holes to play to ensure a profit, who knows

   Besides, I find the pre-event research is absolutely essential as very often my in-running plays are players I’ve had in mind before the off.

   Anyway, good luck tonight Gazza, it should be very entertaining whatever the result.

   Cheers
   Steve
   

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