Golf Events / Harry The Hat / 01 September 2011 /

New golf columnist Harry The Hat looks forward to one of his favourite events with some detailed historical analysis...

The Deutsche Bank Championship has always been one of my favourite tournaments to trade in running.

There are two stretches of holes where players can make a serious charge up the leader board and their odds often shorten dramatically which gives back-to-lay traders an excellent opportunity to secure a profit or punters a chance to get on the winner at big odds.

The two key scoring sections are holes 1-4 and 15-18. Holes 1-4 contain a short par four (365 yards), reachable par five (542 yards), straight forward par three (208 yards) and drivable par four (298 yards). Historically, they rank as the fifth, second, ninth and fourth easiest holes on the course.

Holes 15-18 feature a short par four (426 yards), short par three (161 yards), short par four (412 yards) and reachable par five (528 yards). Last year they all played under par and rank as the seventh, tenth, sixth and easiest hole on the course.

Watch out for players who start on the tenth tee in round one or two because they will play all eight of the key holes in one stretch. Be prepared to back players once they have completed the tricky fourteenth (the most difficult hole on the course) or before.

A couple of examples: when he won in 2009, Steve Stricker started his first round on the tenth hole and was in 38th place at two-under-par after playing the 14th. He then made six birdies in the next eight holes to jump to eight-under-par and the top of the leader board. Two years before, winner Phil Mickelson started his second round on the tenth tee and was languishing in 43rd place at 1-under-par. He made five birdies and an eagle on holes 15-16-17-18-1-2-3-4 which catapulted him into a share of fourth place.

The winning score is often in the high teens or low twenties and, given the forecast light winds and soft conditions, we should see plenty of birdies and eagles. Look for value after the first round as players can make up ground in the second round. In fact, half the winners were outside the top ten after round one.

In birdie shootouts like this it often pays to stick with players near the top of the leader board at the halfway stage. It's difficult for players to make up ground if they are too far off the pace as everyone else is making birdies. Only one player has come from further back than fourth place after the second round in the eight year history of the tournament.

Be prepared for upsets in the final round. In the last five years only one of the third round leaders has gone on to win. Watch out for fast starters as the last five winners were all at least two-under through the first four holes. Last year, Charley Hoffman started four shots off the lead but went par-birdie-birdie-birdie to get into contention before going on to win.

Watch out for fast finishers. In 2009 Steve Stricker stood on the 17th tee one shot behind Jason Dufner who was safely in the clubhouse. Stricker finished birdie-birdie to win by a stroke.

As a general rule I don't advocate backing players at very short odds coming down the final stretch but, given the easy nature of the finishing holes, punters can get stuck into a player who has healthy lead with four holes to go. No winner in the history of the event has finished the final four holes over par!

Follow me on Twitter @HarryTheHatGolf for more in running advice during the tournament.

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