The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 11 March 2012 / 1

Bubba holds sway by three and Steve's in a sulk. Can he learn the lessons from his one-dimensional approach at Doral as he looks forward to the Cheltenham Festival? Read his day four thoughts here...

11:35 - March 11, 2012

I've made a bit of a pig's ear of the WGC Cadillac Championship and I confess to having a bit of a sulk about it. I backed Bubba Watson in the event last year but he wasn't well and withdrew before the off. Missing him this year hurts a bit - he's already traded at [1.6], so even if he doesn't convert his three stroke third round lead into victory, I'd have no doubt been in profit by now if I'd kept the faith this year. And with the benefit of hindsight, I've been far too rigid with my in-running strategy...

I was determined to get the first round leader onside and it didn't seem to matter who it was! On Thursday I wrote: "Almost every time I've backed Adam Scott he's disappointed me but he had to be sided with at [7.2] here." Does finishing with two bogeys and a double yesterday count as disappointing? You bet it does.

I'm definitely guilty of being too one-dimensional in my thinking this week and I should have let instinct lead me. I talked myself into backing Scott and for that reason I'm cross with myself. Had I been slightly more flexible and waited until play began on Friday, I could have easily gotten the main protagonists onside. The move by Bubba Watson and Justin Rose was so obvious and yet I just let it unfold before me. That said, Bubba had birdied the first three holes on Thursday before losing his way and when he opened up with three straight birdies again on Friday, I did wonder whether there would be another wobble.

Moving on, my big mistake was not ditching Scott for Bubba yesterday. I wanted to, and I very nearly did but I feared making the switch. I felt if I had, Scott would have played brilliantly and Bubba would have flopped. It was another mistake though, although, again, that's with the benefit of hindsight.

So what now? Firstly, I'm going to learn the lessons from this week's golf as we head in to next week's Cheltenham Festival of horse racing.

Like many, I've been getting stuck into next week's form and this week's golf has reminded me that I mustn't get too wrapped up with all the different patterns and trends at the Festival. I mustn't be too one-dimensional.

In 2008, I went to the festival on day one and really fancied Pipe's An Accordion in what's now the JLT Speciality Chase but I doggedly refused to back him because he was favourite and no favourite had won the race since 1994. What happened? He won, and to make it worse he drifted and didn't even go off favourite! I also overlooked the fancied Captain Cee Bee in the Supreme Novices' - a horse I'd dismissed on account of his age. I concentrated my efforts on five and six year olds. Old Cee Bee was seven. But my most vivid memory has to be the victory of Katchit in the Champion Hurdle. Smugly holding a sizable ante-post docket for favourite Sizing Europe, I expended a fair bit of effort trying (fortunately) in vain to put my mate off Katchit. I bored him to tears repeatedly informing him, and anyone else who would listen, that five-year-olds just don't win Champion Hurdles. Quite rightly I received an awful lot of stick post race. In my defence, Sizing Europe went lame and what a beast he is now and what ever happened to Katchit? I did think at the time, that that was either one hell of a horse or a crap Champion, turns out it was the latter.

Anyway, back to the golf. Will Bubba hang on to his three shot lead? He's a [2.0] shot to do so and that's probably about right. I can't see any value in Keegan Bradley at [4.8] and if I wanted to oppose Watson, the [6.2] about Rose, alongside Bradley in a tie for 2nd, would make more appeal.

I'm just about giving up on the event but, just in case there is a calamitous collapse, I've had two very small wagers. I've backed Zach Johnson (six behind Bubba) at [65.0] and Johnson Wagner (seven back) at [170.00].

Over at the Puerto Rico Open, pre-event pick, Graham DeLaet is four behind third round leader George McNeill. Could he be my Get Out Of Jail Free card? Hope so.

I'll be back tomorrow with my De-Brief.

11:05 - March 10, 2012

Playing alongside Bubba Watson, who shot a sparkling ten-under par 62 and Justin Rose, who shot an eight-under 64, Mark Wilson must have wondered what had hit him yesterday at the WGC Cadillac Championship. His two-under par 70 just didn't cut it.

Watson and Rose pulled each-other along brilliantly and they won't mind being paired together again today in the final two-ball at 18:45 UK time. I've just got to hope they fail to find the same magic today because I've not backed either of them.

Having based my strategy around the early leaders, just about the worst thing that could have happened yesterday, was a pair of players just a few shots out of the lead going bananas and shooting the lights out! Bubba's place atop of the leaderboard is especially irritating as he was a very bullish pick in this event 12 months ago.

The stats say Bubba has a great chance now too. Hunter Mahan, who isn't a great frontrunner anyway, failed to convert last year with the halfway lead but the previous five winners were all in front at this stage.

After a roller-coaster round two, I've got options with my wagers now. At one stage it looked like being a completely disastrous day two but a strong finish from first round leader and in-running pick, Adam Scott, saw him close to within three of Bubba and one of Rose in third. Charl Schwartzel regrouped after a mid-round wobble and Thomas Bjorn played solidly all day again. Schwartzel is now on -7 (five behind Bubba) and Bjorn -8.

I've toyed with laying part of my Schwartzel and Scott wagers back and covering Watson, possibly Rose too, but I'm going to leave it for now - though I'm very tempted by Bubba. It's often hard to back up really low rounds though and I'm hoping that the ace pair from yesterday struggle a bit today and that Scott and Schwartzel can catch them. And I'm not ruling out Bjorn, he's hanging around nicely.

If Watson and Rose do struggle, it might not be my guys that benefit anyway. The last two PGA champions, Keegan Bradley and Martin Kaymer, are on the scene now (-8 and -7) and Tiger Woods is fighting as hard as only he can and is still in it according to the market. On -5 and fully seven shots off the lead he trades at just [15.0].

The least said about the Puerto Rico Open the better. Matt Jones is now three clear and all mine are out of it, though Ben Curtis was yesterday matched at just [6.0]. The leaderboard showed that he'd birdied the first three holes and at that stage he had climbed to -8 and was closing in on Jones rapidly. A couple of hours later, the birdie at the first was changed to a par and he'd bogeyed the eighth, 11th, 12th and 13th. Oh well.

00.10 - March 9, 2012

The forecast suggests that the wind won't be quite as bad over the next three days as it was on day one, but even so, we look set for a real war of attrition around Doral. It was plenty breezy enough yesterday and the leaderboard is packed solid with wind specialists.

Jason Dufner birdied his final hole (the 9th) late in the day to join Adam Scott at the head of affairs on -6 and they're two clear of the rest. Scott had set the early pace with his excellent 66, and it could have been quite a bit better, but for a disappointing finish. Also playing the course back to front, he was seven under par through eleven holes but played the last seven in one over.

If I hadn't meddled just before the off, I'd be more than happy with my lot so far but a last minute back of Phil Mickelson took the shine off the day. I'm a bit of Lefty fan to say the least and I couldn't really work out why he drifted so badly before the off. I couldn't fancy him at [14.0] at the start of the week when the forecast looked atrocious but as the forecast improved slightly, he drifted a lot. I'm not saying he can't play in the wind because he most certainly can but he's always a better bet in calmer conditions so the improving forecast increased his chances in my eyes. Anyway, I couldn't resist [18.5] before the off and so he got added to the eight I'd already backed. He finished up shooting level par and that was about as well as he ever looked like shooting but it's highly unlikely to be good enough as a fast start here looks essential.

I'd pointed out in my preview that the last seven winners have all been right up there from the get-go, with Tiger Woods' win in 2007, from four back after day one, the furthest any winner has been behind at this stage.

Fortunately, three of my pre-event picks are right up there. Both Thomas Bjorn and Charl Schwartzel are tied for third on -4 and Kyle Stanley's in the logjam in a tie for fifth on -3. I thought I'd be getting further involved at this stage and I have, even though I didn't want to! Dufner's still in search of his maiden win so I'm leaving him out for now but I've felt compelled to get Scott onside, even though I really don't like him!

Almost every time I've backed Scott he's disappointed me but he had to be sided with at [7.2] here. Scott has led or been tied for the lead 13 times in the last ten years and he's converted on three of those occasions, including two huge tournaments (last year's WGC Bridgestone and the 2004 Players Championship). Given Dufner's poor record and the fact that three of the last six winners here were in front after day one, I felt I had to get Scott onside, as much as it pains me.

I'm tempted by Aaron Baddeley, he's on -3 and he's the latest in a long line of magnificent Find Me A 100 Winner picks for Paul Krishnamurty in 2012, but I'm going to leave it for now and see what round two brings.

Away from my bets, one round one finish worthy of note was that of Sergio Garcia. The enigmatic Spaniard has had his spells in the doldrums of late and it looks like he could well be heading for another dark phase - he finished absolutely appallingly, bogeying five in-a-row before finding water twice on the treacherous 18th. And to think some poor soul backed him at [7.0] in-running!

Just a quick word on the week's other event - the Puerto Rico Open. More bad news on the last minute bet front I'm afraid. As well as getting Lefty onside at Doral, I also backed Stephen Ames and Jerry Kelly here. Ames was awful, Kelly slightly less so.

Of my pre-event picks, my bright spark so far is Ben Curtis, backed at [80.0], who spent much of the day atop of the leaderboard. Matt Jones and George McNeill sneaked past him late in the day but I'm more than happy with his five under par 67 start.

I don't know whether the organisers have had the European Tour scorers give them hand this week but there were a number of errors, as there are week in and week out on the Race to Dubai. Two of my players had their scores amended way after they'd finished their rounds but for a refreshing change, both went in my favour. Graham DeLaet's was the most pleasing amendment - his one under par 71 was changed to a three under 69. I'd advise a little caution if you're betting in-running here.

WGC Cadillac Championship Pre-Event Bets
Phil Mickelson @ [18.5] (after the preview was published)
Charl Schwartzel @ an average of [34.0]
Rickie Fowler @ [55.0]
Kyle Stanley @ [100.0]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [160.0]
Thomas Bjorn @ [210.0]
Paul Casey @ [250.0]
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ [450.0]
Greg Chalmers @ [450.0]

In-Running Bet
Adam Scott @ [7.2]

Puerto Rico Open Pre-Event Bets
Dicky Pride @ [55.0]
Troy Matteson @ [65.0]
Stephen Ames @ [70.0] (after the preview was published)
Jerry Kelly @ [70.0] (after the preview was published)
Ben Curtis @ [80.0]
Matt Bettencourt @ [110.0]
Graham DeLaet @ [130.0]

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1. Anonymous | 09 March 2012

   So are you saying someone who shoots -3 on day one is a magnificent pick? Even when there are 54 holes to play and the player on -3 drops through the field during round two. A golf tournamant is over 72 holes not 18 holes.

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