Find Me a 100 Winner: Wind king Baddeley has winning assets

Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 06 March 2012 /

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Can Baddeley triumph at Doral?

"The current forecast suggests fairly strong wind speeds on all four days, which I suspect will considerably reduce the number of potential winners."

It's been a while since we saw a long odds winner at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. So what makes Paul Krishnamurty think this week's event could reverse the trend?

Recent history at Doral GC's famous 'Blue Monster' suggests this week's WGC-Cadillac Championship is anything but the ideal tournament for finding big-priced winners. Six of the last seven winners were proven major champions and as Nick Watney was another popular pick last year, it may be prudent to restrict this week's trading plan to just a single selection.

The last shock winner here was Craig Parry in 2004, who registered the sixth Australian victory at Doral since 1990, following on from Greg Norman and Steve Elkington's five titles. Given that Geoff Ogilvy later joined that list in 2008, there is clearly something Aussies like about this place, and yet another of their number looks the best value amongst this week's outsiders.

At odds of [120.00] Aaron Baddeley has plenty going for him. He made the top-15 on his first two attempts here in 2007 and 2008, and finished top-11 on his last two strokeplay starts. Baddeley's classy short game is always a big asset around this layout, where scrambling and putting have been the most pivotal stats in recent years. Furthermore, with seven professional titles, including three on the PGA Tour, usually at attractive odds, he has a win ratio that commands respect and has rewarded loyal followers.

In addition to all that, the biggest factor in Baddeley's favour is the weather forecast. One of the reasons why Aussies tend to fare well here is that, like many of their home courses, Doral is very exposed. The current forecast suggests fairly strong wind speeds on all four days, which I suspect will considerably reduce the number of potential winners. Under such circumstances, it really isn't asking that much for Badds to hit our first lay target at [15.0]. If he does, we'll quadruple the initial two unit outlay.

Recommended Bets
2u Aaron Baddeley @ [120.0]

Place order to lay 8u @ [15.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [3.0]

Updated 2012 Stats: +62 units

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