The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 23 January 2012 /

It's been a frustrating week for The Punter but he remains philosophical (just) as he looks forward to next week and beyond...

After back-to-back victories in his homeland, South Africa's Branden Grace has climbed up to 92nd in the world rankings. It's a meteoric change in fortunes. After a mediocre year on the Challenge Tour last year, he only gained his European playing rights at qualifying school just before Christmas!

Over in the States, Mark Wilson now needs to be described as the prolific Mark Wilson. He secured his third PGA Tour win in just over a year yesterday, stoically holding all-comers at bay. All-comers that included two of Paul Krishnamurty's Find Me A 100 Winner picks (guess who backed the other one!). Both Robert Garrigus (advised at [160.0] and John Mallinger (advised at a monstrous [500.0]) reached the advised lay prices of [15.0] and [3.0], putting the column firmly in profit.

My Bets
My new year's resolution to remain philosophical, whatever the vagaries of my picks, is being tested to the absolute limit already. Ernie Els, backed before the final round at [46.0], looked by far the likeliest winner at one stage yesterday but he just couldn't find the bottom of the cup with very makeable birdie putts at holes 14, 15 and 16 before eventually losing in the playoff.

With my cup half full hat on though, at least his magnificent charge through the field gave me the opportunity to profit on the event. As detailed in the In-Play Blog, I did manage to lay him back at [1.94].

Another plus was that I didn't have any further involvement at the Humana Challenge. I had planned to trade and to lay anyone that went odds-on but by the time Wilson did go odds-on it was late in the day, metaphorically as well as physically. I thought he might have gone odds on early in the final round but a tentative start saw his lead diminish and it wasn't until the event was in its final throes did he become the first and only player to go odds-on. Tired, cheering on Paul's picks anyway and if the truth be told, a bit fed-up (my only hope Ben Crane blew his chance with a very slow start to round four), I decided to leave it alone. A decision that meant after a couple of losing weeks, I finished this one with a tiny profit.

Players to watch
I wouldn't put anyone off backing Mark Wilson every week. He's always a big price and his win ratio is starting to look very good. Some players just aren't popular for whatever reason and he's one of them. He's had the odd shaky in-contention performance but he's impossible to crab.

Phil Mickelson gave his backers very little chance last week, turning up with no preparation on Thursday morning. He's ditched the long putter now though (a good thing, I think!) and he improved as the week went on. I get the impression he has a plan this year, and one very much to suit the Mickelsons. He won't be playing at the WGC Match Play event but he will be playing in the next four stroke play tournaments and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he doesn't win one of them.

Brandt Snedeker hit the front early in round four last night after a dramatic late run in round three had seen him climb up from nowhere. He reacted badly, not for the first time, once he got to the lead and he's clearly not one to trust implicitly but he does have a good record at Torrey Pines - venue for next week's Farmers Insurance. I'll be keeping an eye on him, looking to get onside if he's close but not too close with a round or so to go.

Players to swerve
Paul Krishnamurty has already seen two of his five big improvers of 2012 figure prominently but both have choked. George Coetzee was awful in the mix last week and this week it was the turn of Belgian Nicolas Colsaerts. He showed what a talent he was on day one of the Volvo with a course record 64 around Fancourt. A very different Colsaerts wobbled away his advantage on Friday before coming again on Saturday. Clearly in great form, he held every chance yesterday but every time he got to the front his game went ragged again and his drives on the par five 16th and 18th holes were quite simply abysmal.

What have we learnt for next year?
Mike Norman's form guide pointed us all the way of the winner at Fancourt and he was quite right to big-up the home challenge. I wasn't quite so sure given the strength of the field but given four of the first five home and six of the first nine were all South African, and given that 10 of the last 11 South African events have been won by a South African, the message is clear, stick to the locals when the race to Dubai returns there in November.

We've two great events to look forward to this week, the Abu Dhabi Championship, where Tiger Woods will be looking to end Martin Kaymer's dominance and the Farmers Insurance Open, where Lefty will be looking to get off the mark. I'll be back tomorrow or on Wednesday with a preview for each event.

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