Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 17 January 2012 / 3

The West Coast Swing gets under way with the Humana Challenge and the wide open fairways make this a tournament for long hitters with hot putters, says Paul Krishnamurty

With half a century of form to study, the requirements for success at this week's US pro-am should be abundantly clear. Previously known as the Bob Hope Classic, the Humana Challenge also switches from five to four rounds this year, but the basic conditions remain the same.

The three desert courses used are among the easiest in professional golf, offering players a gentle start to the West Coast Swing. Anyone failing to make a stack of birdies, and maintaining the onslaught throughout, may as well forget it. Naturally, a hot putter is essential and given generous fairways, big-hitters enjoy an advantage. That was certainly the case 12 months ago, when previously little-known rank outsiders Jhonattan Vegas and Gary Woodland fought out a dramatic play-off.

This week's trading plan therefore involves backing a trio of birdie-machine types who should have high hopes of capitalising in these easy conditions.

First up, Scott Piercy was in contention going into Sunday at Waialae, maintaining the solid form shown since landing his maiden PGA Tour title last August at another desert venue in Reno, which has seen him miss only one cut in ten events. Piercy usually ranks among the driving distance leaders, and was tenth amongst this field for the 'par breakers' stat in 2011. He can also boast a snippet of tournament form, making the top-20 two years ago.

Next, huge-hitting Robert Garrigus is fancied to produce his strongest performance since achieving a career best by finishing third in the US Open. This wildly inconsistent player is another who can usually be found near the top of the birdie stats, so it could be worth taking a chance at odds of [150.0] that this is one of his good weeks. Notably, Garrigus was runner-up on last year's seasonal debut and finished a respectable 14th on his sole previous attempt here.

Finally, a very speculative pick at enormous odds. Odds of [500.0] about John Mallinger may be justified on the basis of his PGA Tour form, but beneath the surface there is more to his case. Last autumn he was in relentlessly consistent form on the Nationwide Tour, registering five top-six finishes between August and October.

As the likes of Webb Simpson and Keegan Bradley have shown, form on that lower tour should not be dismissed. In any case, Mallinger does have some form at the higher level, such as losing a play-off for the 2009 US Bank Championship. He was also in contention in this event two years ago with a round to go, before fading to 25th.

The plan is to lay out four units in total on this trio, then placing lay orders on each player at [15.0] and [3.0], with a view towards at least doubling our money if any lay target is hit.

Recommended Bets
2u Scott Piercy @ [120.0]
1.5u Robert Garrigus @ [160.0]
0.5u John Mallinger @ [500.0]

Place order to lay 8u @ [15.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [3.0]

Updated 2012 Stats: +3u

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(3)

1. Anonymous | 23 January 2012

   well done and unlucky not to scoop the big booty

2. Mike Norman | 23 January 2012

   Stunning picks Paul, very unlucky in regards to getting a winner but very well done regardless, massive profits on Garrigus and Mallinger will have been had.

   And along with your near miss with Ernie on the European Tour it has been a top-tipping week. Well done mate.

3. Paul Krishnamurty | 24 January 2012

   Many thanks for the comments

   Don't know whether to laugh or cry! Nice profit, but Mallinger would have been a once in a lifetime bet.

:

:

:

?

: