Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 06 September 2011 /

It's been an unpredictable year in golf causing Paul Krishnamurty to rethink his betting strategy for the game. Here are three new golden rules

Having managed to completely avoid golf or betting during last week's holiday, it was nice to return to find the European Tour event won by a player I couldn't have backed in a million years.

OK, Thomas Bjorn had won the previous week and earlier this season in Qatar, but he hardly fitted the profile of a back-to-back winner - a rare achievement by anyone. In an era when golf is increasingly dominated by the younger generation, 40 year-old Bjorn is the only player to have won three strokeplay titles in 2011. An extremely unlikely achievement, given that he was widely written off as past his best.

Of course, that isn't to detract in any way from Bjorn's impressive renaissance, or indeed from Steve Rawlings supreme in-play judgement in getting the Dane on-board at tasty prices in-running for both wins over the past fortnight.

Nevertheless, it makes a further mockery of the markets in this most unpredictable of seasons. Even on Sunday, starting three shots behind a non-winner, despite clearly being on a good run following the previous week's success, Bjorn was relatively weak at around [21.0].

The reason for that generous quote was the proximity of superstars Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood and Martin Kaymer. Not for the first time, punters were prepared to steam into short odds, only for the world's best to fail to deliver when it mattered on Sunday. One might have thought there would be a knock-on effect at this week's KLM Open, yet once again this star trio dominate the market, all trading in single figures.

It is hard to make a statistical justification for backing any of them. Going back to the beginning of 2009, the month McIlroy landed his first title and Westwood begun his successful Race to Dubai campaign, this pair have won only eight times from 133 starts. Westwood was a short price for all of his five wins. Rory's three victories came at decent odds, which we may not see again for a very long time. He has never delivered as pre-tournament favourite.

Kaymer is more convincing on the basis of last year's impressive win at Hilversum, a far superior career win ratio and a proven reliable temperament. Nevertheless, [9.2] is plenty short enough about somebody who hasn't won for 18 starts, since his opening event of the year. Nobody is going to get rich by regularly taking such restrictive prices about golfers these days.

It is easy to criticise these stars for not winning enough, but the trends are merely indicative of the changes afoot in world golf. With all tours rapidly gaining strength in depth, multiple winners are becoming increasingly rare. There are hundreds of players now capable of winning European or PGA Tour events. Nowadays, even when a top player does hit a hot streak - for example Luke Donald's hat-trick of titles this year, or Jim Furyk's three in 2010 - few would expect them to maintain that win ratio. Even after Donald's recent golden run, the world number one has only four wins from his last 132 starts.

While these favourites are under-priced at the start of tournaments, taking short-prices in-running makes even less sense. The most consistent players may deserve much shorter quotes at the beginning of tournaments, but when it comes down to the crunch 18 holes, there's no reason why they should fare any better than an experienced champion like Bjorn, or indeed a nerveless youngster like PGA winner Keegan Bradley.

The ability to finish the job off has never been a pre-requisite of a high ranking, besides the obvious exception of Tiger Woods. Greg Norman threw away many more chances than he took when leading the rankings in the 1990s. Players like Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and Furyk may have been the best bar Woods, but they were never the most reliable finishers.

So if the market leaders are to be avoided, who should punters be looking for? For me the answer lies in making more speculative picks, going into tournaments with a batch of players rather than relying on one or two.

Furthermore, we must be prepared to persevere with outsiders that have been confidently assessed to represent value. Take my trio of selections for the KLM Open.

At a minimum price of [110.0], these guys would only need to win once every three years to yield an overall profit for loyal backers. Likewise, though I certainly didn't see it coming, there will be punters who stuck with long-touted prospect Oliver Fisher through his atrocious run, and were duly rewarded at enormous odds last month. In effect with one good week, Fisher followers paid for several years worth of losing level stakes bets on their man.

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