Golf Bets / Paul Krishnamurty / 18 February 2010 / 1

With 32 golfers still in the field now is the time to take a chance on a player from each quarter in the win market, says Paul Krishnamurty

The opening day at the World Matchplay didn't produce quite as many shocks as seen at the start of previous renewals, with the higher ranked player winning 20 of the 32 matches. Nevertheless, some very big names have already bitten the dust, most significantly world no.2 Steve Stricker and triple major champion Padraig Harrington. It was also very nearly curtains for leading British hope Rory McIlroy, but the 20 year-old eventually fought back to beat Kevin Na on the final hole.

Conditions are quite tricky, with fast greens placing extra emphasis on scrambling, and making it essential that approach shots are played from the fairway rather than rough in order to gain maximum control. That implies an advantage to the best players, but with no Tiger or Mickelson in the field, nobody really stands out as that much superior to the rest.

Under those circumstances, there should be some mileage in picking out a few attractively priced trades, in the hope that they can win a couple more matches and therefore shorten to single figures. The following four players are available at a minimum price of [32.0], and combined odds of around [10.0]. All of them fit the criteria I laid out before this event started, in that they are aged between 27 and 38 like every previous winner.

Should any one of the four reach the latter stages, it will leave the option of laying the entire stake back for a risk free bet. Hopefully, as each is in a different section, more than one will reach that stage and further covering positions can be added to the portfolio.

Sean O'Hair @ [32.0]

O'Hair put up one of the best performances of the day, shooting -6 through 17 for a comfortable 3 and 1 victory over Simon Dyson, despite losing the first two holes. He's one of the fastest improving stars on the PGA Tour and seems to enjoy matchplay.

That victory makes it five wins from seven in this tournament, and it should be remembered that he was going very well last year before falling sick ahead of his quarter-final match. Today's contest against another matchplay specialist, Stewart Cink, will be tough, but O'Hair has been in much better form lately.

Camilo Villegas @ [40.0]

Villegas faces the toughest possible task in the second round against defending champion Geoff Ogilvy, who won his 18th match out of 20 in this event with five holes to spare. Should the Colombian win though, expect layers to run for cover as he showed some pretty tasty form himself to beat last week's winner Dustin Johnson by a comprehensive 4 and 3 margin.

Last year, Villegas looked in supreme touch on this course before running into Ogilvy in even better form at the third round stage. Whoever wins this match will start as hot favourite in the next round so at [40.0], Villlegas must be worth an interest in the hope he can gain revenge.

Matt Kuchar @ [42.0]

With Stricker and Harrington out, the Jones Bracket looks by far the weakest section, so [42.0] about this in-form player is particularly tempting. Prior to withdrawing with illness during his latest tournament, Kuchar had been in exemplary form on the PGA Tour, winning once, registering four further top-eight finishes and only once missing the top-20 in his last eight starts. He starts strong favourite against Jeev Milkha Singh today, and ticks all the right boxes for this course in terms of accuracy and short game excellence.

Luke Donald @ [42.0]

As my colleague Steven Rawlings pointed out pre-tournament, Donald has been something of a matchplay specialist since his amateur days, and few players put up a better performance in the opening round. Luke was -5 through 17 holes for his victory over Graeme McDowell, despite a double-bogey on the par-3 third. That was four shots better than his second round opponent Robert Allenby; who has never previously played well at Dove Mountain and could therefore rate a vulnerable favourite today.

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1. Neil McMurdo | 24 February 2010

   Hello Paul,

   I am gathering lots of information regarding stats and history on tournaments over past 10 years. www.europeantour.com is great for this but do you know any US websites for PGATour competition, trying to look for trends etc. For example the advice you gave regarding the matchplay where nobody below 27 ad nobody above 38 had won the event (fantastic info) and helped me win a fair amount of money last week

   Thanks
   Neil

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