Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 16 February 2010 /

Thinking of having a bet on the WGC action? Then read Paul Krishnamurty's essential pointers first

Every former winner was aged between 27 and 38

Given the history of upsets since this tournament's inception in 1999, it's fair to say that, in theory at least, every one of the 64 competitors has a chance of winning the event. The rollcall of former winners, however, suggests otherwise.

Every single one was aged between 27 and 38, therefore possessing the combination of experience and relative youth, which can prove important in an event which involves playing seven rounds in five days. If that run is to be maintained, we would be able to rule out numerous candidates, including three of the leading five in the betting; 42 year-old Steve Stricker, Rory McIlroy (20) and Martin Kaymer (25).

Be wary of short-priced favourites

As results in this event and others repeatedly illustrate, there is no greater leveller in golf than 18-hole matchplay. Unlike strokeplay where every shot counts, in this form of the game players can endure the odd disaster knowing that it will cost only one hole. Because the matches are so short, overturning an early deficit of more than a couple of holes usually proves a huge task. Often therefore, these matches boil down to which player holes more putts early on.

Short-priced backers have had their fingers burnt time and again in this event on the likes of Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh and Ernie Els. And who could forget Tiger Woods' defeats at the hands of also-rans such as Jeff Maggert, Peter O'Malley and Nick O'Hern (twice)?

Matchplay pedigree and experience offers a big advantage

As well as proving a great leveller, matchplay is a refined art. Some players just don't seem to enjoy this event. Lee Westwood, for instance, has never won two matches here in the same year. Jim Furyk has never reached the last-eight. Phil Mickelson's repeated failures may lie behind his surprise decision to swerve this week's potential goldmine in favour of a family holiday.

Equally, there are numerous matchplay specialists, in both this event and the other World Matchplay, previously played at Wentworth and since last year, Spain. I doubt it was a coincidence that Ross Fisher won the latest one in October, having reached the semis on his Accenture debut a few months earlier. Both of last year's finalists, Paul Casey and Geoff Ogilvy, had won a World Matchplay title of one or other variety.

The best three tournament records to consider this week are owned by Ogilvy (17 wins from 19 matches), Henrik Stenson (12 from 16), and David Toms (23 from 31).

Factor in the draw when playing the outright market

Unlike the strokeplay norm where the lowest aggregate score wins, anyone playing the outright market should remain aware of the draw implications throughout. Because the correct price for each player is a projection of the accumulative odds on them winning all six matches.

That might deter, for instance, a bet on a serious contender like Ogilvy. The Aussie starts at [16.5], despite potentially having to face six tricky matches. Alexander Noren might not prove a pushover in the first round, after which he will have to play either last week's winner Dustin Johnson or the dangerous Camilo Villegas. The likeliest last-16 opponent is another tournament specialist in Stenson, and after that it will probably be tough all the way. My estimate is that a running accumulator on the defending champ could pay more than [20.0].

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